MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY CONTINUES TO DEBATE WHETHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001939 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY CONTINUES TO DEBATE WHETHER TO LAUNCH PRESIDENTIAL BID REF: A. JAKARTA 1517 ¶B. JAKARTA 1321 ¶C. SURABAYA 082 AND PREVIOUS JAKARTA 00001939 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesia,s largest political party, Golkar, continues its internal debate on whether to nominate a presidential candidate in the 2009 elections. A national meeting that just wrapped up highlighted that the party remains deeply split over the question. The party has done well in two recent gubernatorial races, which has lifted spirits. That said, the secular-oriented party is deeply factionalized, with Vice President Kalla, the party leader, seemingly unable to get the party to unite firmly behind him. END SUMMARY. PUNTING ON A DECISION ¶2. (SBU) One of Indonesia's largest parties continues to deal with a serious internal dispute. In a three-day national meeting held in Jakarta which ended on October 19, Golkar,s top leaders controversially decided not to nominate a presidential candidate or publish a list of possible candidates. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, the Golkar Chair, declared that the meeting,s purpose was how to do as well as possible in the April 2009 legislative elections and not to focus on the presidential election at this time (the first round of which is slated to take place in July 2009). ¶3. (SBU) In explaining his position, Kalla asserted that the party should only focus on the presidential election once the legislative elections are complete and Golkar can assess the results. One of Kalla's allies on the parties central organizing committee announced that Golkar would hold a special meeting after the legislative elections in order to discuss the presidential election and what Golkar should do. In the meantime, Golkar would collect information on the situation by collecting data on potential presidential and vice presidential candidates through surveys and other methods. DASHING THE HOPES OF SOME (FOR NOW) ¶4. (C) The decision not to announce a presidential candidate soon was highly controversial in party ranks. Younger Golkar figures such as Gorontalo (a province in northern Sulawesi) Governor Fadel Muhammad and Member of Parliament Yuddi Chrisnandi, and senior figures, including financial backer and media tycoon Surya Paloh, have supported the call for the party to name a presidential candidate in the near-term. These figures have been backed by various regional branches of the party, including those in West Java, Yogjakarta region, North Sulawesi and Papua. This faction notes that the Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P),another major party, has already selected former president Megawati to be its candidate and that the Demokrat Party is expected to do the same for President Yudhoyono. Golkar should do the same, so it can get its presidential campaign under way, they assert. ¶5. (C) These figures also claim that their concerns are focused more on how the party moves forward and chooses a candidate as opposed to whom it might be (some members of this faction actually support Kalla and want him to run for president). One idea is that the party hold some sort of wide-open convention in which members vote for whomever they want to run. This idea is opposed by Kalla and his supporters who want to curtail the number of members involved in the decision, asserting that the party needs firm leadership from the top. In any case, the dispute is likely to continue. THE PARTY GETS SOME GOOD NEWS JAKARTA 00001939 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) In the meantime, Golkar has received some much needed good news. While the party has generally done quite poorly in gubernatorial races and in recent polls (ref A),it recently has won two gubernatorial elections. The first of these was in South Sumatra in which the candidate it supported took over 52 percent of the vote in the September 4 election. In addition, the party's chosen candidate in Riau (an area of southern Sumatra) took over 55 percent of the vote in the September 22 election. Moreover, while the party continues to lag a bit in the polls for the legislative elections, it seems to be within striking range of PDI-P, which is leading the field at this point in most polls. KALLA HAS HIS HANDS FULL ¶7. (C) Vice President Kalla clearly has his hands full. Concerned about at least keeping the VP position, he clearly doesn't want to alienate President Yudhoyono--who has indicated that he is thinking of naming Kalla again as his VP candidate--by starting a presidential campaign at this point. At the same time, Kalla probably realizes he has no chance if he does try to run for president--he is in single digits in the polls with one poll giving him a mere two percent of support nationally. His problems are compounded by the fact that the party is deeply divided, with some of its most important chieftains at odds with him (one is already running for president, the Sultan of Yogjakarta, and others are hinting at a presidential or VP bid like Speaker Agung Laksono, for example). Kalla--not known for having a compelling personality--is clearly going to have to work to carry the party with him in the months ahead or risk losing some political credibility. HUME