PAPUA GEARS UP FOR NEXT YEAR'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001870



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DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/ANP, DRL, DRL/AWH

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018

TAGS: PGOV, PINS, KDEM, ID

SUBJECT: PAPUA GEARS UP FOR NEXT YEAR'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS



JAKARTA 00001870 001.2 OF 002





Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Like other parts of Indonesia, Papua and

West Papua provinces are slowly gearing up for the 2009

presidential and parliamentary (DPR) elections. Indonesia's

largest parties will likely face difficulties with Papuan

voters who are unhappy with Jakarta over the slow pace of

autonomy implementation. In the meantime, some surprising

newcomers are making a strong play for Papuan support. It is

unclear whether these newcomers will gain traction or whether

the mainstream parties will regroup and reverse their sagging

fortunes. Either way, with political actors largely failing

to grapple with the region's endemic problems, the general

restiveness among Papuans seems set to continue. END SUMMARY.



A SMALL BUT IMPORTANT PRIZE



2. (C) Papua and West Papua provinces are gearing up for the

2009 presidential and national parliamentary (DPR) elections.

Although the two provinces are lightly populated (with

approximately 2.5 million people--only one percent of

Indonesia's total population) they are already drawing

attention from political parties. Papua and West Papua are

rich in natural resources, including minerals, natural gas

and forest products. (Note: The region contains the world's

largest gold mine, second largest copper mine and a major new

natural gas site.) Political parties hope that securing

parliamentary seats from the provinces will give them some

influence over decisions regarding these resources.



3. (C) A key political dynamic in the province remains

longstanding tensions between ethnic Papuans and migrants

from other parts of Indonesia. Papuans, who are about 60

percent of the population, generally support candidates who

they believe will protect their rights as ethnic and

religious minorities. (Note: Papuans are ethnic Melanesians

and overwhelmingly Christian.)



OLD GUARD IN TROUBLE



4. (C) As Papua gears up for the 2009 presidential and

parliamentary elections, Indonesia's largest parties, the

Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar,

seem to be in trouble. Golkar--which is the key player in

President Yudhoyono's governing coalition--has long dominated

Papua politics. Most key Papuan politicians, including

Governor Barnabas Suebu, Vice Governor Alex Hesegem, and

Speaker of the Provincial Assembly John Ibo, are Golkar

stalwarts. In past elections, Papuans have reliably

supported Golkar parliamentary candidates.



5. (C) Papuans seem to be losing faith in Golkar, however,

because of what many Papuans see as the Yudhoyono

administration's spotty implementation of the province's

Special Autonomy Law. (Note: This is a key grievance among

ethnic Papuans, many of whom believe that Jakarta has no

interest in giving the province real autonomous status.)

There also seems to be some disillusionment with Yudhoyono

himself (this would be an unwelcome change for the President:

Yudhoyono did quite well in the region during the 2004

presidential election).



6. (C) Golkar also faces challenges in parliamentary races.

Long-serving and popular Golkar DPR member Simon Morin, for

example, told poloff that he would not run for reelection as

he expected to be tapped for an ambassadorship. A number of

contenders are maneuvering to succeed him but no clear

front-runner has emerged.



7. (C) PDI-P faces even bleaker prospects in Papua. Party

chief Megawati Sukarnoputri remains deeply unpopular with

ethnic Papuans. Their animus stems from the former

President's 2003 decision to subdivide the province in two

(into West Papua and Papua provinces)--a move Papuans believe



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undercut the province's Special Autonomy Law. Papuans also

believe that a Megawati administration would revive plans to

create even more provinces in the region. PDI-P's strong

nationalist stance causes many Papuans to feel that a

Megawati government would actually erode the little progress

that has been made on Special Autonomy. One factor arguing

for PDIP picking up some votes, however, is that it has some

support among migrants and its populist "anti-poverty" stand

on economic issues is increasingly popular in the country at

large.



SURPRISING NEWCOMERS



8. (C) Two new nationalist parties--Gerindra, led by

controversial former General Prabowo Subianto, and Hanura,

led by Wiranto (one name only),another controversial former

general--are making an unexpectedly big push for support in

Papua. Gerindra and Hanura banners and billboards vastly

outnumbered those of other parties during poloff's recent

visit to Jayapura, the provincial capital, and to Timika, a

key mining town. Both parties are spending lavishly to court

Papuan support, according to Agus Sumule and Ronnie Tapilatu,

advisors to Governor Suebu. Prabowo--who has financial

resources--also has begun airing slick advertisements on

Papuan television stations.



9. (C) Despite the advertising blitz, there is little Papuan

support for Gerindra and Hanura. Papuans, who generally

distrust the Indonesian military and want greater regional

autonomy, have relatively little love for hard-line

nationalist parties led by former generals. Tapilatu told

poloff that Papuans were willing to take money and gifts from

the parties but would not support them. The two parties may,

however, draw some support from non-indigenous residents of

the provinces (the migrants)--especially those who think that

Papua needs a firm hand.



10. (C) A central Javanese aristocrat--Yogyakarta Governor

Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X--is making a surprisingly big

splash with some Papuans. Hamengkubuwono, known for his

secular views, is courting Papuan support by emphasizing what

he says is his strong commitment to protecting Indonesia's

religious and ethnic diversity. This is going over well with

ethnic Papuans, according to Rev Karel Erari, a leading

Protestant leader in Jayapura. During Hamengkubuwono's visit

to Jayapura in mid-Sepember, he held a number of rallies and

hosted an interfaith iftaar dinner. The local media gave his

visit wide and positive coverage.



NO SIGN OF END TO LONGSTANDING TENSIONS



11. (C) With the traditionally dominant parties in some

disarray in the region and several newcomers vying for Papuan

support, Papua is likely to be the site of vigorous

campaigning in the coming months. Our contacts expect

Gerindra and Hanura to flood the province with money in an

attempt to buy support, but do not expect this to be very

successful. These same contacts also predict that Golkar

will get its act together in the end and will continue to

dominate Papuan politics.



12. (C) That said, there does not seem to be a concerted

effort by any of the parties to address seriously the endemic

problems in the region, which include widespread poverty

(amid great wealth in natural resources) and a strong feeling

among Papuans that Jakarta is not fully implementing autonomy

provisions. Given this, there seems every possibility that

Papuans will continue to feel estranged from the rest of the

country and that the general (if largely non-violent)

restiveness in the region will continue.



HUME