STRONG CANDIDATES WIN IN TWO MAJOR INDONESIAN PROVINCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001677 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: STRONG CANDIDATES WIN IN TWO MAJOR INDONESIAN PROVINCES REF: A. JAKARTA 1664 ¶B. JAKARTA 1551 ¶C. JAKARTA 633 AND PREVIOUS JAKARTA 00001677 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified. Please handle accordingly. It was jointly drafted with U.S. Consulate Medan. ¶2. (U) Summary. Reputations for good governance and hard grassroots campaigning helped gubernatorial candidates gain apparent victories in successive gubernatorial elections in two southern Sumatran provinces on September 3 and 4. An unofficial but usually reliable quick count of the September 3 Lampung Province gubernatorial elections gave an overwhelming victory to a coalition led by the nation's second-largest party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). In Sumatra's September 4 election, the nation's biggest party Golkar squeaked out a victory, according to quick counts. These are important victories for both parties for building momentum in the lead-up to 2009 national Parliamentary elections, particularly for Golkar, which has performed abysmally in gubernatorial elections to date. End Summary. ¶3. (U) PDI-P notched up an impressive eighth gubernatorial election victory on September 3, with a landslide victory in Lampung Province, on the southernmost tip of Sumatra. Retired two-star general and former Lampung governor Sjachroedin Z.P. and running mate Umar Said garnered 42 percent of the vote, according to a normally reliable quick count by a respected public opinion organization, with a two percent margin of error. PDI-P won easily on its own strength, easily outdistancing a coalition of Golkar Party and two major Muslim parties which got only 21 percent of the vote. WISE ELECTORATE ¶4. (U) According to a Lampung University political observer, Ari Darmastuti, voters chose "wisely" based on real issues, and not based on candidates' charisma or largesse. According to one public opinion expert, recent surveys had shown that Sjachroedin/Said's widespread popularity cut across ethnicities and religions. ¶5. (U) Sjachroedin had promised to build a bridge across the Sunda Strait providing a crucial direct transport link with Java island. He also pledged to provide free public education, better infrastructure for investors, and to turn Lampung into an agricultural and bio-ethanol hub. With its population of over 6 million -- who migrated over the years from Java and Bali -- and rich production of coffee, cocoa and cloves, Lampung is one of Indonesia's more important provinces. GOLKAR LIKELY WINNER IN SOUTH SUMATRA ¶6. (U) In Lampung's neighboring province of South Sumatra, two-term Regent of Musi Banyu Asin Regency Alex Noerdin apparently defeated sitting governor of South Sumatra Syahrial Oesman in September 4 local elections, with over 50 percent of the vote, according to normally reliable quick counts compiled by well-regarded survey organizations. Several quick counts estimated that Noerdin got 51 to 52 percent of the vote, with Oesman close behind at 47 to 49 percent, with a margin of error of one to two percent. With a population of 7.3 million, South Sumatra is strategically situated on the South China Sea shipping lanes and is an important center of commerce, with a rich plantation sector. ¶7. (U) Golkar badly needed this victory, having won only one gubernatorial election (Jakarta governorship) and with few other local elections victories in its belt. Noerdin was supported by Golkar, two major Muslim parties - Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) - as well as President Yudhoyono's Democrat Party (PD). ¶8. (U) Noerdin is a popular reform-minded local regent known for actively supporting social programs including education, and health care services and sports for the poor, as well as a pro-business JAKARTA 00001677 002.2 OF 002 policy. Oesman was supported by PDI-P, Prosperous Justice Party (PKS),Development Union Party (PPP) and a coalition of 12 smaller parties. Muslim-oriented PKS, which has been on a losing streak recently following its victories in West Java and North Sumatra (Ref B),also fared poorly in the Lampung election. ¶9. (SBU) Syahrial Oesman and Alex Noerdin had waged a hard-fought campaign. A series of allegations in recent weeks intensified the rivalry. Oesman has recently been called as a witness in a corruption investigation involving improper re-zoning of mangrove swampland to be converted and used for a planned port. He has thus far refused to testify in the case and it is unclear how far he himself was involved in the improper re-zoning of the land. Noerdin used this investigation against Oesman while Oesman countered by publicizing accusations against Noerdin of an extramarital affair. ¶10. (SBU) A recent prohibition on the religious group Ahmadiyah's activities issued September 1 by Acting Governor Mahyuddin may also have been an attempt to shore up support among Oesman's Islamic party supporters such as the PKS and PPP (Ref A). ¶11. (SBU) In a conversation with Consulate Medan on September 5, a dispirited Oesman indicated he had not conceded and believed that he will come out ahead once all the votes are counted. Given that much of his support is in the more rural and remote parts of South Sumatra, there remains a slight possibility that the current trend towards Noerdin will reverse. TAMPERING STILL A CONCERN ¶12. (SBU) South Sumatra elections are also notorious within Sumatra for post-election tampering. Syarial Oesman's election as governor in 2003 was marred by allegations of vote tampering as was the 2003 election of the Mayor of Palembang Eddy Santana, an Oesman partisan. A member of the South Sumatra five-person election commission was heard as recently as last Saturday announcing in a hotel lobby near media (who reported the comments) that Oesman was destined to win and that Noerdin was a womanizer. As the election commission now prepares to release an initial vote tally on September 8, the history of tampering in South Sumatran elections looms large over the process. ¶13. (SBU) These two elections bode well for Indonesian democracy in that the victors campaigned on issues of importance to the electorate, which reportedly followed the candidates closely and were enthusiastic about direct elections. The two elections also mark a rebound for Golkar and further demonstrate PDI-P's strong grassroots connections. Development of a strong democratic culture will be crucial to successful national Parliamentary elections slated for April 2009. HUME