MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY UNDER PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001366

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY UNDER PRESSURE

REF: A. SURABAYA 082

B. JAKARTA 1321 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Golkar, the largest party in the Indonesian
national legislature, is facing political problems. The
party has failed to win--and often even place--in a series of
recent gubernatorial elections. In addition, the party is
generally not doing well in national opinion polls ahead of
the 2009 elections. In discussing Golkar's problems,
observers blame poor leadership and party factionalization,
and a feeling that the party has an uninspiring platform and
is tainted with money politics. All that said, it is way too
early to count Golkar out; the party is well-funded and
well-organized. END SUMMARY.

POOR PERFORMANCES


2. (C) Golkar is facing political problems. (Note: The
name of the party roughly translates as "functional group.")
A key member of President Yudhoyono's governing coalition and
the biggest party in the Indonesian legislature (with about
23 percent of the seats),the party has suffered a series of
defeats (not winning once) in recent gubernatorial races,
including in the following provinces:

-- West Java (April 2008): Golkar finished third.
-- North Sumatra (April 2008): Golkar finished fifth.
-- East Kalimantan (May 2008): Golkar finished third.
-- East Nusa Tenggara (June 2008): Golkar finished second.
-- Central Java (June 2008): Golkar finished second.
-- West Nusa Tenggara (July 2008): Golkar finished second.
-- Bali (July 2008): Golkar finished third.
-- Maluku (July 2008): Golkar finished fourth.

GENERALLY POOR POLL RESULTS


3. (C) The party is also generally not doing well in
national polling ahead of the April 2009 legislative
elections. (Note: The legislative elections are followed by
the presidential elections in July 2009.) The National
Survey Report (LSN),a well-respected public opinion outfit
recently conducted a poll which showed the following:

-- Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDIP) with 19.3
percent of support.
-- Golkar with 16.1 percent.
-- Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 9.0 percent.
-- Partai Democrat with 8.3 percent.
-- National Awakening Party (PKB) with 4.5 percent.
-- United Development Party (PPP) with 3.4 percent.
-- National Mandate Party (PAN) with 3.1 percent.


4. (SBU) Other polls have shown Golkar dipping to as low as
12 percent. A recent poll, by Indonesia's Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),however, showed
Golkar leading the pack with roughly 20 percent of support.

WHAT'S GOING ON?


5. (C) In asking about the party's political situation,
contacts have responded that Golkar is suffering from poor
leadership. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, the Golkar Chair, is
not seen as particularly charismatic and is considered by
many to have been ineffective in helping prepare the party
for the recent gubernatorial contests. He has been seen as
overly manipulative in backing certain politicians over
others as Golkar gubernatorial candidates, for example.
Akbar Tanjung, a former Golkar Chair, is seen as thoughtful,
but he is also not charismatic and not very inspiring in
public events. Agung Laksono, the Speaker of Indonesia's

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legislature and a Golkar leader, is seen as relatively
effective in the arena of legislative politics, but is not
seen as a effective national force for the party. Among its
other leadership problems, the party also has serious
internal disagreements among various factions. (Note: The
Sultan of Yogyakarta is a Golkar member and currently a
presidential candidate. While an influential figure, he has
not been intimately involved in Golkar and its policies.)


6. (C) The party also comes off as a bit stale and
uninspiring. Doug Ramage (AmCit--please protect),the head
of the Asia Foundation Office in Jakarta, told us recently
that "Golkar is just not projecting an image that it is ready
to tackle the problems faced by the average person." Ramage
went on to note that PDIP and PKS, two parties that have
recently won gubernatorial races, had adjusted their
platforms in light of recent price hikes in the area of fuel
and food. These two parties, for example, have expressed
concerns about these issues and how the situation impacts the
average person. Golkar, however, has not done this as
effectively, focusing its image more on being a party used to
exercising power and sharing rewards, according to observers.

Q7. (C) Ramage went on to note that Golkar remained a party
rooted in its past (it reached its heyday during the Suharto
period when decisions were reached in smoke-filled rooms and
elections were tightly regimented affairs). "Many
Indonesians just seem to feel that the party is tainted with
corruption and is old-fashioned," he remarked.

NOT TO BE COUNTED OUT


8. (C) Despite its apparent problems, Golkar remains a
formidable force. Compared to other parties, it is
traditionally wealthy--Golkar is said to have a large war
chest ready for the 2009 elections. The party is also
well-organized, with a vast network of party cadres. That
said, the April 2009 legislative elections are coming up
quickly and Golkar seems at the risk of being outcampaigned
by PDIP and PKS, two parties that seem newly energized in the
lead-up to 2009. Many Golkar operatives we have touched base
with know this and say the party is working to revamp itself.


9. (C) A poor showing by Golkar in 2009 could potentially be
problematic for moderate-type politics in Indonesia--the
party leans toward the secularist and is considered
relatively tolerant. At the same time, it does not take
extreme positions on international issues. Many Indonesians,
however, do not seem to be responding to Golkar's style of
politics, which may herald a shift toward a more responsive
form of political engagement in the country.

HUME