CENTRAL JAVA -- OPPOSITION PARTY WINS GOVERNOR'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001216 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, DRL/IRF NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM ID SUBJECT: CENTRAL JAVA -- OPPOSITION PARTY WINS GOVERNOR'S RACE REF: A. JAKARTA 1185 ¶B. JAKARTA 1076 ¶C. JAKARTA 939 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Preliminary results indicate that the Indonesian Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) has won the Central Java gubernatorial election. The election in Indonesia's third largest province by population took place on June 22 and no problems were reported. The Islamic-leaning PKS coalition came in third, a relatively poor showing for the party given its recent track record. The PDI-P victory is a boost to the party and its leader, former president Megawati, a key contender in the 2009 presidential race. END SUMMARY. PDI-P WINS ¶2. (U) Preliminary results indicate that PDI-P has won the Central Java gubernatorial election held on June 22. (Note: Central Java, which includes the major cities of Semarang and Solo, is Indonesia's third largest province by population. It has roughly 35 million residents.) Based on the ongoing vote tabulation and the quick counts, PDI-P candidate Lt. General (ret.) Bibit Waluyo and vice-governor candidate Rustriningsih (one name only) are way ahead with a lead that appears insurmountable. It will take several more days for the Election Commission to finish the vote count. ¶3. (U) As of late June 23, the results are: -- PDI-P 42% -- Golkar/Nahdlatul Ulama 22% -- Democratic Party/Prosperous Justice Party 17% -- United Development Party/National Mandate Party 12% ELECTION PROCEEDS WITHOUT PROBLEMS ¶4. (U) Voting proceeded peacefully and reportedly without any problems. Mission team that was based in Semarang, the capital of the province, spoke to various observers who said there had been no incidents. The U.S. team witnessed voters going to the polls peacefully during the course of the election. Election observers estimated only a 54% turnout, the lowest turnout among recent gubernatorial elections. PDI-P RUNS A STRONG CAMPAIGN ¶5. (C) Observers agree that PDI-P ran a strong campaign. PDI-P contacts asserted that it had a 55,000-strong grassroots organization in Central Java, which was successful in delivering a message of good governance and prosperity. Some contacts asserted that Waluyo was not a particularly strong candidate. His running mate, Rustriningsih, was considered quite popular, however. She is also close to former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, who contributed to the win by campaigning heavily in the region. ¶6. (SBU) The Golkar coalition with 22% of the vote and the coalition candidates of the PD (President Yudhoyono's party) and Muslim-oriented PKS with only 17% fell far short of expectations. Golkar,s strategy of meeting mainly with small groups (as opposed to holding big campaign rallies) and PKS, decision to align itself with a candidate tarnished by allegations of corruption contributed to their defeat. GOLKAR-NU ALLIANCE DOESN'T WORK OUT ¶7. (C) Golkar and its alliance with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU),a JAKARTA 00001216 002 OF 002 major Muslim group, did not do well in the election. Acting NU Chair (Central Java) Abu Hofsin told us that NU,s alliance with Golkar was based on a political calculation that Golkar would win the Central Java governorship. Hofsin said the local NU leadership believed National Awakening Party (PKB)--NU's usual partner in elections--would not win the election due to the party's internal divisions at the national level. Hofsin said NU expected to re-establish its political relationship with PKB once the party resolved its internal conflicts. POSITIVE FOR MEGAWATI ¶8. (C) The results are very positive news for Megawati, who is planning to run for president again in 2009. It is the case, however, that the PDI-P has been quite strong in the Central Java region historically and the party basically performed at a level expected of it. The Central Java result ends the string of recent positive news for the Islamic leaning PKS, which won earlier gubernatorial races in West Java and North Sumatra and performed well in the East Kalimantan race. The results do nothing for the case of President Yudhoyono and his Democratic Party (PD),and Golkar, the country's largest party--both PD and Golkar underperformed. HUME