IMPORTANT GUBERNATORIAL RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001043 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS NSC FOR E. PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINS ID SUBJECT: IMPORTANT GUBERNATORIAL RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL REF: JAKARTA 1020 JAKARTA 00001043 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Final results for the May 26 East Kalimantan gubernatorial election are not expected until as late as June 10. Interim "quick counts" by two Indonesian polling organizations indicate that no ticket received more than the 30 percent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off. While involving a remote--if resource-rich--region, observers on a national-level are watching the race closely to see whether the Islamic-leaning PKS party can keep up its recent electoral winning streak. END SUMMARY. RACE IS UP IN THE AIR ¶2. (C) The East Kalimantan race is too close to call. (Note: East Kalimantan is a sprawling, relatively sparsely populated province located in the Indonesian section of Borneo Island in Central Indonesia.) The two quick counts differ on who is ahead, but the difference is in the decimal points. Neck-and-neck at the top of the count now with around 27 percent of the vote are: --Awang Farouk Iskak-Farid Wadjidy team supported by a coalition of the United Development Party (PPP),the National Mandate Party (PAN),the Democratic Party (PD) and 11 other small parties; and, --The Achmad Amins-Hadi Mulyadi team backed by the Patriotic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). ¶3. (C) An election observer with an East Kalimantan NGO confirmed to DepPol/C on May 28 that a late June run-off by the two top vote-getters is likely. He noted that the percentage of blank ballots was extraordinarily high nearly everywhere--as high as 80 percent in some areas. These protest votes show the relative degree of voter dissatisfaction with all candidates. Per reftel, voter cynicism that the candidates would keep their promises, combined with uninspiring candidates, apparently contributed to voter apathy. THE CONTENDERS ¶4. (C) Regarding the two teams in contention to win at this point, the Farouk-Wadjidy team ran strong due to Farouk's strong base as regent (district chief) of the heavily populated--by East Kalimantan terms--East Kutai district. Farouk is part indigenous Dayak and that might have helped him to gain the support of the province's 10 percent ethnic Dayaks and the other indigenous peoples who altogether comprise 34 percent of the population. Farouk has been campaigning hard for two years and his platform to improve the education system was popular. ¶5. (C) The Amins/Mulyadi team benefited from Amins' base as mayor of the province's largest city and capital of Samarinda. Mulyadi from PKS is believed to have mobilized PKS's strong urban grassroots network of young, upperly mobile voters. Mulyadi also is part Dayak. Amins is rumored to be corrupt. His Patriotic Party is a successor to the Suharto-era Pancasila Youth organization which oftentimes used threats and intimidation to achieve political means. Sources in East Kalimantan told DepPol/C that Amins has a reputation for hiring thugs to intimidate enemies. MORE TRACTION FOR PKS? ¶6. (C) Because of East Kalimantan's wealth of natural resources--it is the third richest province in Indonesia--its potential to thrive under a good governor is significant. To date, however, it has suffered from corruption and JAKARTA 00001043 002.2 OF 002 mismanagement. While it is unclear whether PKS's organizational skills were the determining factor in its ticket's strong run, another PKS coalition victory would give it yet more momentum. This, with key elections in Central and East Java provinces approaching. HEFFERN