IMPORTANT GUBERNATORIAL RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001043

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS
NSC FOR E. PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINS ID
SUBJECT: IMPORTANT GUBERNATORIAL RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL

REF: JAKARTA 1020

JAKARTA 00001043 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Final results for the May 26 East
Kalimantan gubernatorial election are not expected until as
late as June 10. Interim "quick counts" by two Indonesian
polling organizations indicate that no ticket received more
than the 30 percent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off.
While involving a remote--if resource-rich--region, observers
on a national-level are watching the race closely to see
whether the Islamic-leaning PKS party can keep up its recent
electoral winning streak. END SUMMARY.

RACE IS UP IN THE AIR


2. (C) The East Kalimantan race is too close to call.
(Note: East Kalimantan is a sprawling, relatively sparsely
populated province located in the Indonesian section of
Borneo Island in Central Indonesia.) The two quick counts
differ on who is ahead, but the difference is in the decimal
points. Neck-and-neck at the top of the count now with
around 27 percent of the vote are:

--Awang Farouk Iskak-Farid Wadjidy team supported by a
coalition of the United Development Party (PPP),the National
Mandate Party (PAN),the Democratic Party (PD) and 11 other
small parties; and,

--The Achmad Amins-Hadi Mulyadi team backed by the Patriotic
Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).


3. (C) An election observer with an East Kalimantan NGO
confirmed to DepPol/C on May 28 that a late June run-off by
the two top vote-getters is likely. He noted that the
percentage of blank ballots was extraordinarily high nearly
everywhere--as high as 80 percent in some areas. These
protest votes show the relative degree of voter
dissatisfaction with all candidates. Per reftel, voter
cynicism that the candidates would keep their promises,
combined with uninspiring candidates, apparently contributed
to voter apathy.

THE CONTENDERS


4. (C) Regarding the two teams in contention to win at this
point, the Farouk-Wadjidy team ran strong due to Farouk's
strong base as regent (district chief) of the heavily
populated--by East Kalimantan terms--East Kutai district.
Farouk is part indigenous Dayak and that might have helped
him to gain the support of the province's 10 percent ethnic
Dayaks and the other indigenous peoples who altogether
comprise 34 percent of the population. Farouk has been
campaigning hard for two years and his platform to improve
the education system was popular.


5. (C) The Amins/Mulyadi team benefited from Amins' base as
mayor of the province's largest city and capital of
Samarinda. Mulyadi from PKS is believed to have mobilized
PKS's strong urban grassroots network of young, upperly
mobile voters. Mulyadi also is part Dayak. Amins is rumored
to be corrupt. His Patriotic Party is a successor to the
Suharto-era Pancasila Youth organization which oftentimes
used threats and intimidation to achieve political means.
Sources in East Kalimantan told DepPol/C that Amins has a
reputation for hiring thugs to intimidate enemies.

MORE TRACTION FOR PKS?


6. (C) Because of East Kalimantan's wealth of natural
resources--it is the third richest province in Indonesia--its
potential to thrive under a good governor is significant. To
date, however, it has suffered from corruption and

JAKARTA 00001043 002.2 OF 002


mismanagement. While it is unclear whether PKS's
organizational skills were the determining factor in its
ticket's strong run, another PKS coalition victory would give
it yet more momentum. This, with key elections in Central
and East Java provinces approaching.
HEFFERN