KURDISH PROFESSIONALS SUSPECT CHANGE IN U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000062 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2028 TAGS: PREL IZ PGOV PHUM PREL TU SUBJECT: KURDISH PROFESSIONALS SUSPECT CHANGE IN U.S. POLICY TOWARD KURDS Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. Members of an association of Kurdish intellectuals recently discussed with us Turkish military operations in Northern Iraq, the state of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) and the importance of democratization for defeating PKK terrorism. Group members lamented the "change in U.S. policy" regarding Turkish military operations in Northern Iraq as reflecting a shift in allegiance away from their Kurdish brethren. At the same time, they believed the U.S. was mistakenly approaching the Kurdish issue in a regional context rather than a national one. Though not a mouthpiece for the divided Turkish-Kurdish community, the group is representative of an increasingly larger and more vocal school of thought that focuses on the need for both a military and comprehensive political solution in Turkey's southeast, supports a unified Iraq within its existing borders and is fed up with the PKK. End summary and comment. Changing U.S. Policy? -------------- ¶2. (C) During a January 22 meeting, members of the Democratic Reconciliation and Solution to the Kurdish Question (DEMOS) association, an organization of Turkish-Kurdish intellectuals, told us that Turkish military operations in northern Iraq indicate a change in U.S. policy because "military operations would not have been possible without American consent." Sensitive to public rhetoric, they felt Prime Minister Erdogan had labeled Kurds as terrorists following his November 5 meeting with President Bush. They further alleged the Turkish military had massed troops on the Iraqi border not only to threaten the PKK, but also to undermine Iraqi Kurdish stability. DEMOS members feared these events demonstrated the U.S. was strengthening ties with Turkey at the expense of Kurds. Previously, perceived U.S. sympathy to Kurdish interests had led them to believe the United States had "genuine concern for Kurds." The Kurds as One Nation -------------- ¶3. (C) DEMOS members affirmed their support for respective Turkish and Iraqi unity within current borders while emphasizing that the Kurdish people must be treated as "one nation in two countries." Although the members stressed the significance of the democratic government in Northern Iraq for Turkish and Iranian as well as Iraqi Kurds, they reiterated that Kurds in Northern Iraq must be seen as part of the whole Kurdish people, not as a separate group. This would promote stability and improve the U.S. image in the region. They implied the U.S. had focused on Northern Iraq separately, ignoring the Kurdish situation in its regional context. Concerns about the AKP -------------- ¶4. (C) According to DEMOS, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured votes in Turkey's southeastern provinces because it promised solutions to Kurdish issues and an end to military operations. DEMOS called these votes "borrowed" by the AKP because the ruling party has yet to deliver on its promises. ¶5. (C) Also troubling to DEMOS members was a recent AKP invitation for a delegation of Iraqi officials, not including Iraqi Kurdish representatives, to visit Ankara. This, combined with the GOT's outreach to Syria and Iran, both of which have large Kurdish populations, showed the government's duplicity in the DEMOS group's view. DEMOS members argued Turkey's tradition of denying Kurds political and social space is shared by those neighbors and brings the countries closer. Thus, they pessimistically predicted that as Turkey becomes more influential in the region, Kurds will be further marginalized. The Future of the DTP and the PKK -------------- ¶6. (C) Although DEMOS members we spoke to said they do not belong to the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), they maintained the party is essential for Kurds because it is the only party really searching for a solution to the Kurdish issue. They see pressure from the AKP as aimed to cause internal divisions and the eventual collapse of the DTP ISTANBUL 00000062 002 OF 002 as well as to win votes. If the DTP were to fall apart, the DEMOS members hypothesized it would likely be replaced by a radical movement rather than a progressive one. ¶7. (C) After the 1998 capture of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, DEMOS members said PKK influence on DTP precursor Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) decreased and politicians became more moderate. DEMOS members oppose the PKK's use of violence and said recent PKK attacks have led Kurds to question PKK motives. The PKK and the Turkish military share an interest in resisting peace and prolonging instability (a theory in frequent circulation). The only way to solve problems with the PKK, DEMOS members repeatedly stated, is through military and comprehensive political means combined. They believed that such a mission would meet resistance from both the Turkish military and the PKK. If a workable solution is not found, the group voiced pessimism for a peaceful outcome. ¶8. (C) The way to reduce support for groups like the PKK, DEMOS members told us, is to guarantee the people's rights. They criticized Turkish Kurds' efforts to make political links with Northern Iraq, saying Turkish Kurds can only support Turkish political parties. Within Turkey, however, Kurds who are unhappy with the DTP currently have no Kurdish-focused alternatives besides the PKK, a terrorist organization. The DEMOS members emphasized they are both Turkish citizens who want to see further democratization in Turkey and Kurds who want equal rights. ¶9. (C) Stressing democratization as the only way to solve the problem, DEMOS members explained Kurds have been coming together through NGOs to seek a political solution. Although they did not believe the issues would be solved by the constitution currently being drafted by the AKP, they supported the adoption of EU norms and standards as a way to further democratize Turkey. WIENER