SAKARYA: WORKING CLASS PROVINCE IN TURKEY'S

UNCLAS ISTANBUL 000598 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: SAKARYA: WORKING CLASS PROVINCE IN TURKEY'S HEARTLAND FACING EOONOMIC AND POLITICAL CHANGE ¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment: Sakarya, a working class province about 100 kilometers east of Istanbul, shows some negative impacts from the global financial crisis, despite contrary claims from local leaders. The Consul General visited a sizable Goodyear Tire Factory -- a positive example of U.S. direct investment -- yet the factory was operating at reduced capacity due to the drop in global demand. Both the local governor and deputy mayor downplayed the negative impacts of the global crisis on the province; citing the region's positive assets. Sakarya Mayor Aziz Duran, dodged his meeting with the Consul General, rather implausibly claiming that he was both sick and out of town, possibly demonstrating that some local officials in this nationalistic and religiously conservative district see close contact with the U.S. as a political liability. Duran appears to be fighting for his political life, facing the possibility that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will not pick him as the party's candidate in next year's local elections. End Summary and Comment ¶2. (SBU) Sakarya Governor Huseyin Atak spoke generically about his province to our Consul General during her courtesy call on November 26, avoiding meaningful conversation. Atak was not concerned with the global economic crisis, instead focusing his efforts on earthquake preparedness -- in response to the 1999 Izmit earthquake which wreaked havoc in the region. ¶3. (SBU) Sakarya Mayor Aziz Duran dodged his previously-confirmed meeting with the CG, with his office first claiming that he had been called to Ankara and then attributing his absence to illness. Duran,s stand-in -- Deputy Mayor Rodvan Ozum --told us the working-class province of Sakarya would feel few ill effects of the global crisis. Ozum stated the local unemployment rate is lower than that of the rest of Turkey and the local banking sector is not feeling a strong impact from the global credit crunch. Ozum said Duran is proud of rebuilding the city from the 1999 earthquake creating a strong economic base along with an environmentally friendly city. ¶4. (SBU) Ozum told us he is unsure the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will resubmit Duran's name as the party's mayoral candidate for Sakarya for local elections next March. Internal AKP polling is assessing the popularity of Duran, according to Ozum, who stated candidates are chosen between a balance of local popularity and the inner decisions of the national party. Comment: Open discussion that the AKP is considering changing its mayoral candidate in a safe AKP province where Duran easily won re-election in 2004 with 38 percent of the vote -- over twice the votes of the second place DYP candidate -- is quite curious since the incumbent appears to be a strong candidate. This uncertainty may have contributed to Duran,s unwillingness to meet with us. End Comment. ¶5. (SBU) Members of the Adapazari Chamber of Commerce and Industry told us Sakarya's economic situation is strong, yet the global economic crisis will adversely hit the region. Erol Ozturk, President of the Chamber, said Sakarya,s exports are valued at over 5 billon USD, thus part of Sakarya's economic success is directly linked to globalization. One positive example of foreign direct investment in Sakarya is the GoodYear factory in Sakarya that employs over 700 workers. In a tour of the factory, the Consul General saw state-of-the-art industrial methods of constructing tires for export to EU counties. The factory, however, was only operating at about fifty percent capacity compared to the previous year due to the economic situation. Plant officials also admitted the plant will be closed for ten days in late November and early December to reduce excess inventory. WIENER