CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM ON ECONOMIC REFORM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000053 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY FOR J.ROSE USDOC FOR 4200/ITA/MAC/EUR/PDYCK/CRUSNAK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN TU SUBJECT: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM ON ECONOMIC REFORM ISTANBUL 00000053 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary. Consul General met leaders of three key Istanbul-based business groups to discuss the prospects for renewed economic reform in 2008. MUSIAD Secretary General Omer Bolat describes his organization's membership as medium/large-sized, religiously conservative family-owned firms. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) President Murat Yalcintas is fond of noting that his organization's 350,000 members represent 50% of Turkey's economy. YASED represents foreign investors and is chaired by BP country manger Tahir Uysal. All three agreed that the government lost focus on economic reforms during 2007, a double election year, but were cautiously optimistic that senior political leaders were returning attention to the economic reform agenda. End Summary. ¶2. Independent Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD) Secretary General Omer Bolat described the last 6 years as a stable and rising economic and political trend for Turkey and opined that although the external environment was becoming more difficult at least the political uncertainty that had plagued earlier governments was unlikely to repeat itself during the next three years. Tahir Uysal, chairman of the board of the association representing foreign investors (YASED) agreed, noting the investment climate and economic environment had both improved greatly since the 2001 financial crisis. ¶3. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce President Murat Yalcintas underscored the importance of an external justification for political and economic reforms. Over the past five years the government achieved unprecedented reform, he argued. However political reform was anchored by the EU accession process, especially the Copenhagen Criteria, while economic reform was motivated by the need to recover from the 2001 financial crisis and to comply with IMF guidelines. The EU and the IMF drove political and economic reforms in a way that drew broad popular support. Now, the public has been disappointed by the EU's stance on Cyprus and by new personalities in Europe (Sarkozy and Merkel),he argued. Popular support for the EU process is declining, taking away the external justification for further reform. Yalcintas underscored the close links between political and economic reforms - Turkey needs to retain the EU anchor on the political side to drive reform in both areas. ¶4. All three business leaders agreed that political stability was crucial to economic reform and indicated the business community generally supports the Justice and Development (AKP) party-led government because it is reform-oriented while the center-left opposition opposes reforms on principle. Yalcintas, who is closely linked to the AKP, argued that government officials are sincerely committed to both political and economic reforms. A more skeptical Uysal argued the government has "taken its eye off the ball" as far as economic reform is concerned, noting 2007 was a disastrous year for spending as the government loosened fiscal reins in advance of elections. Yalcintas conceded the two elections in 2007 (parliamentary and presidential) produced an "election economy" not focused on reform, but believes things will get back on track now that elections are over. ¶5. The government is responsive to business community concerns and has worked to create formal and informal avenues for constructive dialogue. Yalcintas noted recent tax reforms were vetted by private sector and expects that forthcoming policies will also be the subject of dialog with the private sector. Uysal emphasized the importance of the Investment Advisory Council, through which YASED (and other economy-focused civil society groups) pushed for the creation of an Investment Support and Promotion Agency (ISPA). Turkey's ISPA is now up and running with a dynamic chief, Alparslan Korkmaz, and about 30 staff in various locations around the world. In an example of less formal channels through which the private sector affects government policy, MUSIAD's grass roots membership is very influential in the AK Party and former MUSIAD Secretary General Zafer Caglayan is now Minster for Trade and Industry. The association has "open access to ministers" and expects the government to respond on issues of importance to them, Bolat explained. ¶6. Yalcintas described an early January meeting he attended in Ankara. The group of 15-20 people was chaired by the Prime Minister and attended by economic ministers as well as economy-focused civil society organizations (TOBB, ITO, labor unions.) Government officials previewed planned reform policies. Business was generally in favor of the reforms while labor groups were less positive. Yalcintas believes ISTANBUL 00000053 002.2 OF 002 the government will implement these reforms, but cautioned the government must get buy-in from civil society and the unions in the run-up to municipal elections. Bolat also referred to this meeting, but was more optimistic that the government would be able to resolve labor concerns and move forward quickly with social security reform. ¶7. Reform fatigue is a concern for all three business leaders. Uysal noted Investment Advisory Council meetings were on hold from May - December 2007 due to the elections. Political leadership is necessary to activate bureaucrats he argued; there is just no impetus without pressure from the political side. Bolat applauded the Prime Minister's recent press conference outlining the targets of an economic plan. He believes this signals a move away from politics and a return to the economic reform agenda. Uysal agreed, noting YASED is now getting signals that the government is re-focusing on the economy. However, he noted there is no overarching policy, a lack of coordination among ministers and Nazim Ekren (Deputy Prime Minister and Minister in charge of the economy) doesn't really drive the agenda. All three business leaders expect announcements in February on labor market reforms and other key aspects of the policy agenda. ¶8. Municipal elections are slightly more than a year away (March 2009) and could be an excuse to defer some painful reforms, Uysal cautioned. Yalcintas agreed noting local elections show the real pulse of the population because local officials are in touch with the people the way national officials (who are not required to live in the constituency they represent) are not. The government is therefore unlikely to take painful measures now, he argued noting administered price increases were made as soon after the national elections as possible in part to distance them from local elections. Some commentators have suggested the government may be tempted to move municipal elections up to fall 2008 to pre-empt paying at the polls for negative fall out from the worsening global economy. This move would likely be supported by the business community who suspect looming elections could preclude much needed reforms. ¶9. Comment. The AK Party did an extraordinary job with economic reform during its first term in office, but benefited from a very positive international environment and a populace that would accept virtually any reform that held out the hope of digging out from the disastrous 2001 financial crisis. Our business interlocutors in recent discussions described a government that in essence put the economic reform agenda in neutral in the months immediately following the 2007 elections. The media frenzy surrounding fall 2007 PKK attacks distracted the general public, but not business leaders, from this lack of activity on economic reform. Now the global credit crunch seems to have prompted a renewed focus on economic reform. However, more demanding voters will test the GOT's commitment to reform, particularly labor market reforms that are likely to bring short-term pain with promises of long-term gain. End Comment. WIENER