(C) TURKEY-IRAN ELECTION WORKSHOPS CONTINUING; NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000245 NOFORN SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN; IRPO FOR DUBAI E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM IR TU SUBJECT: (C) TURKEY-IRAN ELECTION WORKSHOPS CONTINUING; NO OTHER FOREIGNERS ALLOWED REF: (A) ISTANBUL 37 (B) ISTANBUL 96 Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Sandra Oudkirk; reason 1.5 (d). ¶1. (C/NOFORN) Summary: A Turkish professor who has held several academic exchanges on election-related issues with an influential Iranian think-tank since last year said that his Iranian counterparts are under renewed pressure not to allow European experts to participate. He believes that the conservatives in Iran feel confident following the recent Majles elections and are trying to assert more control over the foreign policy activities (and western contacts) of his "pragmatist" interlocutors. He plans to proceed, along with one or two other Turkish experts, with a May 26 workshop in Tehran on "elections in transition societies" and on May 28 in Tabriz on Turkey's experience with multi-party politics and democratization. While in Tehran he hopes to meet with Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. Looking ahead, he is working with a U.S. NGO on a possible visit of private Iranian experts to the U.S. in November to observe U.S. elections. End summary. ¶2. (C/NOFORN) Isik University professor Bulent Aras (please strictly protect) told Consulate Istanbul "Iran Watcher" on May 12 that arranging election-related academic exchanges with Iranian counterparts is becoming more difficult as Iran clamps down on Aras's desire to invite European election experts. Following up on his recent "study visits" to Iran coinciding with Iranian Majles elections (ref B),and his previous hosting in December 2007 of Iranian academics in Istanbul (ref A),Aras has proposed to hold two workshops with his Iranian partner, the Expediency Council's Center for Strategic Research (CSR): one in Tehran on "Elections in post-Conflict and Transition Countries" (i.e., Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan) and one in Tabriz on "Turkey's experience in Multi-party Politics and Democratization." CSR has agreed to host the meeting in Tehran, while a university in Tabriz will host him there (sponsored by a contact of his at Iran's Ministry of Higher Education). ¶3. (C/NOFORN) Feeling the pressure from the conservatives: Aras had recommended to the CSR that he invite several European election experts to the proposed workshops, but was recently told by CSR contacts that only Turkish participants (who do not need visas to travel to Iran in any event) would be permitted. CSR contacts told Aras that "the Mousavian case frightens everyone, and nobody wants to be convicted for the same cause." (Comment: Hossein Mousavian is a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, former deputy to Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hassan Ruhani, and former Ambassador to Germany who was charged in 2007 with "espionage" for discussing Iran's nuclear policy with foreign diplomats. Earlier this year Mousavian was acquitted of espionage but found guilty of "working against the regime" and given a two-year suspended jail sentence and a five year ban on serving in any Iranian government position dealing with foreign policy.) ¶4. (C/NOFORN) Aras's primary contact at the CSR, Dr. Mahmoud Vaezi, CSR's Deputy Director for foreign policy (and former Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister) told Aras that he was questioned aggressively by the Interior Ministry for having supported Aras's request to invite a Danish election expert to join Aras's March 2008 "study visit" to Iran (comment: ultimately the Dane was unable to participate because of visa delays). Moreover, Aras has been trying to secure a visa for a Greek election expert to participate in the upcoming workshops, but the MFA has been asking for "unusual" information about the Greek colleague, including his extended family members, home addresses, his weight, and other questions not typically included on an Iranian visa application. Aras interpreted the questions as an effort to intimidate the Greek expert, and has withdrawn the visa request. Aras feels that he has no choice for this next round of workshops but to participate only with Turkish colleagues. He plans to take two colleagues from Isik University with him. ¶5. (C/NOFORN) Hoping for a higher-level patron: While he is in Tehran, Aras hopes to meet with Tehran Mayor Mohamed-Baqer Qalibaf, a meeting that is being arranged through a mutual acquaintance who was recently elected as a Majles representative. Aras pointed to Qalibaf's growing influence and believes he has a strong possibility of winning Iran's Presidency in June 2009. Aras hopes to brief Qalibaf on the merits of his election-oriented academic exchanges with Iranian think tanks and secure Qalibaf's support for such exchanges. ISTANBUL 00000245 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C/NOFORN) Inviting Iranians to observe U.S. elections: Aras, working with a U.S. NGO (which has already been in contact with State/NEA) plans to invite a small group of Iranian experts to observe U.S. Presidential and Congressional elections in November. Aras would specifically like to invite Dr. Rahman Gharamanpour and Dr. Hossein Hafezian, both senior fellows at the CSR, and perhaps one or two others. He will work with the U.S. NGO to ensure their names are fully vetted with the Department and to organize an appropriate observation program for them. He plans to invite this group to Istanbul in September to discuss the program and to apply for U.S. visas. He is optimistic that bringing two pragmatic academics that are well-connected to Rafsanjani and the Expediency Council to observe U.S. elections could generate promising opportunities for more informed discussions at future roundtables about Iran's own presidential elections, and may even allow him to raise the possibility of international observation thereof. ¶7. (C/NOFORN) Comment: When asked why he was facing more resistance now than before the Majles elections in March in his efforts to secure visas for European election experts, Aras speculated that as a result of the conservatives, perceived show of strength in the elections they believe they have a timely opportunity to act assertively against their rivals in the more pragmatic Rafsanjani-oriented camp, including many officials at the CSR. Aras felt the recent pressure against his CSR interlocutors regarding their contacts with his European colleagues was a function more of internal Iranian political maneuvering -- conservatives in the Interior Ministry and MOIS making life difficult for specific Rafsanjani supporters like Vaezi, because they can -- than a sign of any strategic decision by regime leaders to resume last summer's severe crackdown on all private academic and/or NGO contacts with westerners. We will stay in close touch with Aras as his plans proceed, and seek a follow-up readout after his return to Istanbul in early June. End comment. WIENER