JOURNALISTS COMMENT ON AKP CLOSURE CASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000198 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: JOURNALISTS COMMENT ON AKP CLOSURE CASE REF: SEPTEL Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The Consul General met recently for off-the-record discussions with two sets of journalists to discuss recent political developments, including the closure case against the Justice and Development Party (AKP). In the first meeting, Cengiz Candar from Referans, Sami Kohen from Milliyet, Eten Mahcupyan from Agos and Taraf newspapers, and Barcin Inanc from the Turkish Daily News all expressed concern that the closure case might cause political instability in the country. The journalists agreed that it was a threat to Turkish democracy, although their views on the wisdom of involvement by the EU and the United States differed. A separate meeting included editors and board members from the Cukurova Media Group who presented more secularist, nationalist views and predicted the closure case and slowing economy would result in a perfect storm for Turkey. Cukurova comments on U.S.-Turkish relations are reported septel. End summary. The Closure Case - What It Means -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Both Etyen Mahcupyan and Cengiz Candar are convinced that the closure decision has already been made and that the court is not independent. Barcin Inanc on the other hand suggested the secularists might be more careful this time since the military's e-memorandum against AKP in April last year actually helped the AKP in the July general elections. She also thought that the court might rule for a sanction other than closure. ¶3. (SBU) According to Mahcupyan, secularists set secularism as a pre-condition for democracy, and hence, tend to sacrifice democracy if they believe secularism is in danger. "The Baath (party) was also secular, but obviously not democratic," he says. He foresees a clash in the country between the "secularists" and "Muslims," a clash that's bigger and more bitter than that experienced in the 1970s between left-wing and right-wing groups. "This time, the division is very real and Turkish, not imported," he says. ¶4. (SBU) Barcin Inanc, however, says many AKP voters supported the party for economic reasons, thinking that it would be better for their business, and not because they supported Islamist views. In voting for AKP, they felt an AKP government would not interfere with their lifestyle but some of these voters were unhappy when one of AKP's first initiatives was to lift the headscarf ban. Mahcupyan disagreed, noting AKP did this after 5 years in power, and would still not have done it without the Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP's) instigaton. ¶5. (SBU) Sami Kohen sees the current politcal turmoil as a part of Turkey's social transfomation resulting from rapid urbanization in the ast decades. He says AKP today represents the maority, and refers to the measures against it as re-adjustments," whereas Mahcupyan and Candar prefr the term "judicial coup." Scenarios and Optons for AKP -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Now that the closure case has been opened, Koen believes that AKP has two options. They willeither concentrate on the case and devote all thir energy and effort to domestic politics, forgeting about the economy and EU reforms, or they will forge ahead with the reform process in an attempt to prove AKP is sincere about democratization and the EU accession. He thinks an impetus toward reform will help decrease tension within the country. Barcin Inanc argues AKP should challenge the closure with a broader, overall constitutional change, and Kohen agrees that this is crucial as it will show that AKP is needed for democratization. ¶7. (SBU) Mahcupyan, however, is more pessimistic, and does not expect it will be easy to decrease tension. Advancing EU reforms will not save AKP because the closure case was filed in response to reforms in the first place. Even if AKP decides to push a reform agenda, there will be opposition both within and outside parliament claiming AKP is no longer legitimate because of the looming closure case. At this point, the media's position will be a determining factor. Kohen, on the other hand, does not think the opposition will oppose reform since they also know that someone is innocent ISTANBUL 00000198 002 OF 002 until proven guilty. ¶8. (SBU) Both Mahcupyan and Candar had no doubt the AKP will be closed. Candar says the court case was only part of a bigger project already in progress, pointing to the Constitutional Court's mid-April 2007 ruling prior to the presidential vote in parliament as proof. However, Candar also held out a possibility the court could decide to ban only some AKP officials, including PM Erdogan, and permit the party to remain open. ¶9. (SBU) Mahcupyan believes the court will close the party and Turkey will have early elections with a newly formed party representing AKP voters' interests. He predicted they would garner more than 50% of the vote. Candar thinks Turkish politics will be highly fragmented if AKP is closed. He believes the Republican People's Party (CHP) will never win more than 20% of the electorate; other parties will splinter AKP's 47% July 2007 vote, causing the Turkish political system to derail, leading to turmoil. "This is exactly why the closure move is so instrumental," he said. "It will not only remove AKP from power, but it will also divide the Islamist votes into different parties." Kohen noted the Kurdish-based Democratic Social Party (DTP) is also under threat of closure. If both parties are closed, nearly 90% of the southeast Turkey's electorate will be effectively without representation in parliament. ¶10. (SBU) In a separate conversation, Tercuman Editor Ufuk Buyukcelebi from the Cukurova Group agreed AKP eventually would be closed and predicted a banking crisis as early as June. Skyturk Editor Serdar Akinan suspected a big hidden deficit will soon harm the economy further. Serdar Caloglu, member of the Cukurova Media executive board said the closure case was more political than legal in substance - a clash of state and government. "We care too much about Ataturk's state. When the economy falters, our (Turks') thoughts turn to Ataturk." Caloglu said the Prime Minister should avoid talk of secularism and definitely not try to change the regime. Skyturk Editor Serdar Akinan viewed the closure case as the state's "last ditch effort," but felt a military coup was not off the table. Akinan said it would be crucial to AKP to solidify its power base with a win in the southeast during the March 2009 municipal elections. U.S. and EU Involvement -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Cengiz Candar said the only way to keep AKP open is through outside pressure. He thinks the U.S. and EU should use their influence and urge dropping the case. He suggested influential American circles should prod Turkey's military to work with the court on behalf of AKP. Candar says the EU anchor is crucial for Turkey, and without it, Turkey could drift away. "That's why it's an important security concern for the U.S. as well." Sami Kohen and Barcin Inanc, on the other hand, were not sure about the wisdom of foreign involvement. Both said EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn's strong criticisms of the closure case were interpreted as support for AKP, and warned that such remarks could be counter-productive. WIENER