JUI-F IN DENIAL OVER ELECTORAL LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 000997 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: JUI-F IN DENIAL OVER ELECTORAL LOSS Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a March 4 meeting with PolCouns, Maulana Haideri, Secretary General of the religious party Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) complained about election rigging and accused the USG of helping secular parties such as the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). He said that the JUI-F had not yet decided whether to join PPP in the coalition government and commented that a PPP/Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) coalition government would be short-lived. He argued that political dialogue and negotiation are key to countering terrorism and encouraged continued development in health, education, and infrastructure sectors. End summary. ¶2. (C) Haideri claimed that electoral rigging had caused the JUI-F's losses in the February 18 election and suggested that the electoral process had hurdles intended to place religious parties at a disadvantage. He seemed genuinely angry that JUI-F leader Fazlur Rehman had reached out to the U.S. Embassy only, in his view, to be undercut by USG support for the PPP. He cited USG support for negotiations between PPP and Musharraf--which allowed for former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's return--and claimed this put JUI-F at a disadvantage. ¶4. (C) Nevertheless, Haideri said the JUI-F was considering a PPP offer to join the new government coalition. The JUI-F will decide their stance at a meeting of their Coordination Committee scheduled for March 5. They will also decide on PPP's offer to work together at the provincial level to thwart Musharraf's party from forming a coalition in Balochistan Province. Asked about the future of the MMA religious block, Haideri said it was effectively finished. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party was "too extreme" but some of the other smaller MMA parties would join with JUI-F. ¶5. (C) Haideri was not optimistic about the long-term prospects of an alliance between PPP and the PML-N, especially if the PML-N declines to accept any cabinet positions in the federal government. He opined that the PML-N was wary of a strong PPP government that could impede their own future prospects. The future of Musharraf's party, Haideri said, depends on whether the PPP wants them to serve as a counterweight to the PML-N. ¶6. (C) Asked where the USG should focus economic assistance, Haideri said Pakistan needed help in the fields of health, education, communication, and irrigation. He further suggested that the U.S. should concentrate on development and dialogue rather than use force, whether it was to counter terrorists in Pakistan or across the border in Afghanistan. ¶7. (C) Haideri concluded by insisting the JUI-F was a positive and moderate political party which was willing to keep an open mind in negotiations with the United States. He said that the U.S. should consider JUI-F a force of peace and moderation and continue dialogue with his party. ¶8. (C) Comment: Most analysts widely credit the 2002 MMA victory in the Northwest Frontier Province to deliberate rigging by the government, and the JUI-F was poised to join Musharraf's coalition, so it is ironic that Haideri is now complaining about electoral fraud. JUI-F continues to demonstrate it is more pragmatic than religious. Like many secular parties, it is ready (once again) to switch sides in order to stay in power, and it is echoing the rigging complaints of other losers. Haideri's suggestion that USG support for secular parties ruined JUI-F's chances was really a reflection of his concern the party was tainted by ties to Musharraf and what was perceived as "America's war." The reality is that the MMA did not deliver on promises of either Sharia law or government services and was unceremoniously voted out of office. PATTERSON