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| Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08ISLAMABAD876 | 2008-02-29 01:46:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
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1. (C) Summary. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader
Sherry Rehman urged the U.S. to "give us time" to form a coalition with Nawaz Sharif because "he is too powerful to have in opposition." There was no PPP decision yet on a candidate for Prime Minister, but Rehman made it clear she did not favor Amin Faheem. Nawaz was proving stubborn on the issue of restoring the judiciary, but Rehman firmly believes that it would be a disaster to restore the former Chief Justice to power. Rehman was cautiously optimistic that, given time, the PPP can bring Nawaz into the tent, but the party is struggling to make this coalition a reality. End Summary. 2. (C) Polcouns met February 28 with Sherry Rehman, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Information Secretary and close advisor to PPP Co-Chair Asif Zardari. For the past few days, the PPP, she said, has been in non-stop meetings with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), coalition partner the Awami National Party (ANP), journalists, and business delegations. (Note: Zardari hosted a lunch meeting February 27 for several hundred supporters which has been interpreted as a "show of strength" by the local media. In press statements at the lunch, Nawaz continued to press for restoration of the judiciary, while Zardari pointedly avoided discussing any substantive topics.) Restoring the Judiciary -------------------------- 3. (C) Nawaz has moved back a bit on pressing for impeachment of Musharraf, said Rehman, but he remains "stubborn" on restoring former Chief Justice Chaudhry, whom Nawaz believes will use his judiciary power to oust the President. The PPP continues to try and convince Nawaz that this will paralyze the new government. Our goal, insisted Rehman, is to send the issue to a group of lawyers who will meet over the next week to hammer out a compromise that can be referred to a parliamentary committee. Ultimately, she said, the PPP believes that this issue cannot be resolved without a constitutional amendment. She believed this could somehow be accomplished despite Musharraf's continuing control over the Senate. "We are in no hurry; if the deliberations in committee are prolonged, that is not a problem for us. We cannot allow Chaudhry to return and try to rule Pakistan by "suo moto" (legal fiat) again. It would be a disaster." 4. (C) Rehman reported that she had been in constant contact with the lawyers' movement and human rights advocates like Asma Jehangir, "who agrees with us completely." PPP activist Aitzaz Ahsan has now been convinced, asserted Rehman, that he should back down on grand plans to organize a "long march" of lawyers on Islamabad. He would be confronting his own party, said Rehman, and playing into Nawaz's hands. 5. (C) Asked if Nawaz would back out of a coalition if the PPP does not yield on this issue, Rehman replied that Nawaz's party wants return to government. Admitting the PPP had little leverage on Nawaz, she asked about the Ambassador's meeting with Nawaz (reftel) and whether the U.S. had a sense of where Nawaz was going. Polcouns said Nawaz was noncommittal on whether to appoint ministers to a coalition government and appeared to be sticking to what he deemed "his principles" on the judiciary. Rehman noted that in the past Nawaz had been willing to compromise those principles, especially on independence of the judiciary. Working with Musharraf's Partners -------------------------- 6. (C) Rehman ruled out including Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party in the PPP coalition. "Musharraf has to understand that the people have clearly rejected his party and his policies." Polcouns noted that there were rumors that Musharraf might abandon his political allies, the Chaudhrys, in order to make the party more acceptable as a coalition partner with the PPP. Rehman responded that the Chaudhrys were "increasingly irrelevant." The PML was ISLAMABAD 00000876 002 OF 003 "falling apart" and even PML General Secretary Mushahid Hussain was putting out feelers on cooperation with the PPP. Those abandoning the PML were, she regretted, "going home" to Nawaz. 7. (C) Regarding an alliance with the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party at the national and provincial levels, Rehman acknowledged there was deep opposition within the PPP to working with MQM. But, Rehman cautioned, history has shown that excluding MQM just leads to violence. "We have worked with them in the past and need to find a way to do it again. I know what they are: they killed my driver in the May 12 demonstrations. But we cannot afford to open another front in Karachi--we have too many other challenges." She confirmed that the PPP has sent a delegation to talk with MQM about joining the coalition. PM: No Decisions Yet -------------------------- 8. (C) Refusing to be draw into a discussion of the PPP's choice for Prime Minister, Rehman said it was an ongoing topic of discussion. Implying she was discussing Amin Faheem's candidacy, Rehman said only that the PPP would need a "strong PM who can be tough in negotiating coalition politics" and "someone willing to work hard into the night, every night." On possible ministerial appointments, Rehman said the PPP would insist on keeping the Foreign Ministry and the Interior Ministry. If Nawaz wants the Finance Ministry, "let him have it -- (former Finance Minister under Nawaz) Ishaq Dar is very competent, and we can work with him." 9. (C) Asked if she thought Nawaz would run in a by-election, Rehman replied "if he does, so will we." But neither Zardari nor Nawaz, she predicted, would be PM candidates "any time soon." Despite press reports that GOP has withdrawn corruption cases against Zardari, Rehman said this has not happened. Silence from the Army -------------------------- 10. (C) Rehman said the PPP has not heard from Chief of Army Staff General Kayani, but praised him for staying out of the political fray. She hoped the military would not intervene to protect Musharraf and will allow the PPP to make key foreign policy and defense decisions. Regional Negotiations -------------------------- 11. (C) Rehman said the PPP had convinced 14 of the independent candidates to ally with the PPP: this included 12 from tribal areas who traditionally vote with the President. She claimed the PPP continues to make inroads with independents from Balochistan and is working to form a provisional government there in opposition to the top vote winner, the PML. She noted that despite press reports, the PPP had not been consulted on Musharraf's February 27 decision to name a new governor of Balochistan, and "we are not happy with the choice." She admitted Nawaz has the votes to form a government in Punjab, and "he increasingly appears concentrated on this goal." But, Rehman insisted, the PPP is a national party and has to concentrate on keeping the federation together. Business Outreach -------------------------- 12. (C) Rehman said the PPP had been meeting with multiple delegations from the Pakistani chambers of commerce. Given our platform, she admitted, "we needed to convince businessmen that we have no intentions of putting lots of new taxes on them." She thought the delegations were pleased and relieved with the PPP's answers to their questions about the PPP's plans for the economy but did not elaborate. 13. (C) The PPP has also been working on outreach to businessmen to push for increased trade with India. Pakistanis need jobs, said Rehman, and there are enormous opportunities to work with India. Pakistan is never going to "solve" the big issues on Kashmir, she noted, but it is possible to help the people in the northern area improve ISLAMABAD 00000876 003 OF 003 their living conditions. There are so many Chinese goods in the market that it is foolish to use the fear of a flood of Indian products as an excuse to prevent the growth of trade. Give Us Time -------------------------- 14. (C) The political reality, said Rehman, is that the PPP wants Nawaz on board in the coalition. "We don't know whether he will agree to participate with ministers, but he is too powerful to have in opposition." "Give us time," she urged, to bring him around so that the PPP can have a strong majority in the next parliament. Without Nawaz, the PPP can govern but with only a "slim majority." Rehman thought it would take another two weeks to come to closure on the coalition. It would be okay to start with a "shadow or skeleton" cabinet at first if necessary. The real work of coalition cooperation, Rehman indicated, would take place behind the scenes through Zardari and Nawaz. 15. (C) Comment: Rehman is widely rumored to want the job as Foreign Minister, so it is no surprise that she suggested this portfolio remain in PPP hands. She and Zardari have made no secret that the believe Faheem is weak and lazy, but they do not appear to have found a suitable alternate candidate yet. Rehman continues to believe the PPP can bring Nawaz into the tent, but Nawaz is proving a tough negotiator, and the PPP is struggling to find the right levers to make this coalition a reality. PATTERSON |