NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY- A CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000810 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENGY EFIN ECON EINV PREL PK SUBJECT: NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY- A CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE REF: Islamabad 655 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Natural gas meets about 50 percent of Pakistan's energy requirements, making the country one of the most natural gas dependent economies in the world. At the present rate of consumption, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) anticipates a natural gas shortfall in 2009. Although pipeline discussions are on-going, no solution is in sight to assist with Pakistan's severe energy shortage. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) This is the second in a series of cables on Pakistan's energy sector and provides an overview of the natural gas sector in Pakistan. -------------- Natural Gas Dependency -------------- ¶3. (U) Today natural gas meets about 50 percent of Pakistan's energy requirements, making the country one of the most natural gas dependent economies of the world. Pakistan's primary energy supplies consist of natural gas (50.4 percent),oil (29.4 percent), hydroelectric power (11 percent),coal (7.6 percent),nuclear power (1 percent) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (0.40 percent). In January 2005, Pakistan's natural gas reserves stood at 30.13 trillion cubic feet (TCF),ranking sixth amongst the Asia Pacific countries. At present, total natural gas production is around 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (BCFD),growing at an annual rate of 10-15 percent which will result in a natural gas demand/supply gap by 2009. ¶4. (U) Pakistan has an integrated infrastructure for the transportation and distribution of natural gas. The country has around 9,400 km of transmission pipelines and over 64,000 km of natural gas distribution networks, supplying gas to about 4.3 million consumers. ¶5. (U) According to Pakistan's Oil and Gas Journal, Pakistan had 28 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves in 2006. The bulk of these reserves are located in the southern half of Pakistan. In 2004, Pakistan produced and consumed 968 billion cubic feet (Bcf). In light of the current onshore exploration activities and resource outlook, the GOP expects minor increases in natural gas production in the short-term. However, natural gas production is expected to decline over the next 15-25 years, while natural gas demand is expected to increase. -------------- Exploration and Production -------------- ¶6. (U) As the largest domestic natural gas producers, Pakistan's state-owned Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Oil and Gas Development Corporation Limited produce around 30 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of the country's natural gas. Austrian OMV is the largest foreign natural gas producer (17 percent of total country's production) in Pakistan. Additional foreign operators include British Petroleum, Italian Eni, and BHP Billiton. The Pakistani government has enacted numerous policies to encourage private sector leadership of natural gas development, including privatization of state-run businesses, regulation that encourages competition and tax incentives geared towards increasing exploration and production. ¶7. (U) Pakistan's largest natural gas production occurs at the Sui field, which is located in the Southern Indus Basin. PPL operates the Sui field, with production averaging 655 Mmcf/d. Additional producing fields include Mari (446 Mmcf/d),Sawan (366 Mmcf/d),and Bhit (316 Mmcf/d). In 2005, BHP Billiton signed a Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA),in which the company will supply an additional 150 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of natural gas from its Zamzama field. BHP Billiton will complete phase II development of Zamzama in the third quarter of 2007. Malaysia's Petronas brought its Rehmat field online in March 2005. The field produces an estimated 30 Mmcf/d, which is sold to consumers in Pakistan's southern Sindh province. In the past few years, the country discovered seven new natural gas fields. The Pakistani government expects the development of these new fields to add an additional 1 Bcf/d to Pakistan's natural gas production. -------------- ISLAMABAD 00000810 002 OF 003 Imported Natural Gas is the Best Option -------------- ¶8. (U) At the present rate of consumption, the GOP anticipates a natural gas shortfall in 2009. Imported natural gas is the cheapest option for meeting Pakistan's present and future energy needs. The two methods to import natural gas are through pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Bulk import of LNG to meet all of Pakistan's energy needs is not a viable option; infrastructure at Port Qasim and Karachi Port are not suitable to handle bulk LNG imports. In addition, upcountry transportation of LNG in pressurized vessels through heavily populated areas and highways is very risky. Pipeline transmission of LNG would require laying new transmission lines and related infrastructure, raising costs to prohibitive levels. Pakistan is thus pursuing both LNG and natural gas pipeline import initiatives. ¶9. (U) Pipeline natural gas can help Pakistan earn transit fees (over half a billion dollars annually) for onward transmission to India and/or Afghanistan. Pakistan is currently considering three pipeline projects, yet none of these is currently viable due to security, cost, and questionable feasibility. ¶10. (U) Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Gas Pipeline: The proposed project is for a 1400km long, 48 inches diameter, over land natural gas transmission line, capable of transmitting 2 BCFD from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan and to Multan in Pakistan. Transmission of gas to India is not included in the project at this stage of planning according to GOP representatives. Security of the exposed gas pipeline through Afghanistan is the biggest issue slowing progress on the project. Completed feasibility studies on the project, funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB),indicate that the Turkmenistan field of Daulatabad will only be able to supply a portion of the natural gas needed by Pakistan. Turkmenistan's present gas reserves of 101 TCF and production capacity of 790 BCF is the lowest of the three options available to Pakistan. ¶11. (U) Qatar Pakistan Gas Pipeline: The proposed project includes a 1600km long, 44 inches diameter, underwater gas transmission line, capable of transmitting 2 BCFD from Qatar's North Dome field to Gwadar Port in Pakistan's Balochistan province. Qatar has proven gas reserves of 300 TCF giving surplus gas availability for over 50 years. The proposed pipeline, to be laid in international waters at a depth of about 1000 meters, would be expensive and incur high maintenance costs. The project would include a connection at the Port of Gawdar to the Pakistani national transmission system. Even though Pakistan has signed a preliminary agreement to eventually purchase natural gas from Qatar, further action on the project has not been taken for several years. ¶12. (U) Iran-Pakistan "Peace" Pipeline: Talks on the proposed USD 7.4 billion pipeline to supply Iranian gas to Pakistan (and perhaps India) through a 2,600km pipeline began in 1994 but have stalled numerous times. The proposed project includes a 48 inch diameter, over ground pipeline with a transmission capacity of 3 BCFD from Iran across the volatile Balochistan province in Pakistan. Of the three pipeline proposals being considered, Iran has the largest proven gas reserves with 812 TCF and a reported production capacity of 1900 BCF. ¶13. (U) In August 2006, Iran and Pakistan extended a previously signed (April 2005) memorandum of understanding until 2007. The pricing structure is the main obstacle for moving forward on the pipeline and both India and Pakistan express concerns about how much Iran will charge for the natural gas. To help mediate the pricing issue, the three countries appointed an international consultant in ¶2007. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Pakistan could earn about USD 70 million annually in transit fees from the pipeline. If India decides to forego its part in the pipeline project, Pakistan and Iran have agreed to work on a bilateral Iran-Pakistan pipeline project. -------------- Consumers Want Energy -------------- ¶14. (U) With a goal of reducing dependency on imported oil, beginning in 1992, the GOP encouraged conversion of oil- based power plants to natural gas and introduced compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative automotive fuel throughout the country. Today, ISLAMABAD 00000810 003 OF 003 Pakistan is the third largest user of CNG in the world after Argentina and Brazil. These measures have reduced oil consumption but increased natural gas consumption by 20.5 percent. Consumers have been hard hit by natural gas shortages during the severe winter and are increasingly frustrated by the long lines at CNG stations to refuel their vehicles. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Pakistan is desperate for energy and is looking at all options for increasing domestic capacity. Natural gas provides a relatively easy solution to expanding Pakistan's energy resources. The GOP is well aware of the USG views on moving forward with the Iran pipeline and Post will continue to monitor all developments in this field. PATTERSON