PPP AND PML-N AGREE TO TRY AND FORM A GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000786 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PK SUBJECT: PPP AND PML-N AGREE TO TRY AND FORM A GOVERNMENT REF: A. ISLAMABAD 764 ¶B. LAHORE 84 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 762 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Co-Chair Asif Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif announced February 21 that they planned to form a coalition government. However, this is an agreement in principle; details on key issues including a choice for Prime Minister, restoration of the judiciary and how to deal with President Musharraf will need to be resolved over a series of meetings in the coming days. Behind the scenes, rank and file of both parties continue to explore other options. Both parties are wooing independent candidates and trying to convince Musharraf's party members to jump ship in the hopes of increasing their vote bloc in the National Assembly. The PPP may still prefer to rule without either Nawaz or Musharraf's party. Nawaz's party may still prefer to sit in opposition or at least decline ministerial postings while they play the long game for the next election. Musharraf's immediate goal is to undercut Nawaz; it is unlikely the PPP would discourage actions that weaken its rival. Few analysts seem to believe a PPP-Nawaz government will be long-lasting. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Late February 21, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Vice Chair Asif Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif met for two hours and agreed in principle to form a coalition government. Previously, they met with Awami National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali Khan. At a joint press conference, clearly dominated by Zardari, they outlined their general objectives: --form a coalition government at the national level --PPP/PML-N to form a government in the Punjab --PPP/ANP to form a government in the Northwest Frontier Province --restore the deposed judiciary --support provincial autonomy --restore the 1973 constitution --generally support the goals of the Charter of Democracy --support the fight against terrorism --call for a UN investigation of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto ¶3. (C) PPP Information Secretary Sherry Rehman confirmed to Polcouns that Zardari and Nawaz had reached an agreement on a general statement of principles, but that there was a great deal of work to be done on the specifics. The two parties would meet separately and together in the next few days to start nailing down the details. Speaking frankly, Rehman said they were "walking a tightrope." ¶4. (C) Zardari appears to be reaching out to a variety of parties. He agreed to form a coalition government with the ANP in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Rehman said, however, that the PPP had not yet decided whether to ally with the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party that controls Karachi. There are local concerns (septel) that without a PPP-MQM alliance in the Sindh Provincial Assembly, political instability could return Karachi to the violent days of the 1990's. MQM's Farouq Sattar confirmed that the PPP has yet to call to invite them into a coalition. Prime Minister -------------- ¶5. (C) There was no public discussion on a possible Prime Minister for this coalition. Rehman said this would be the subject of discussions February 22 and beyond. Notably, PML-N leader Javed Hashmi, whom Zardari had cited as a possible candidate, did not appear to be at the press conference. PPP Vice Chairman Amin Faheem, however, stood at Zardari's side. Musharraf's Future -------------- ¶6. (C) On Musharraf's future, there was a distinct ISLAMABAD 00000786 002 OF 003 difference on the way forward. At the press conference, Nawaz specifically indicated his desire to see Musharraf depart the scene (without being specific about how); Zardari remained silent on this point. Rehman also declined to elaborate, although Zardari has told us on several occasions that he has no interest in trying to impeach Musharraf and would be content to reduce the power of the presidency while leaving Musharraf in place. (Note: All the local press today seized upon what was interpreted as a gap between White House and Department statements on the issue of Musharraf's future.) Restoring the Judiciary -------------- ¶7. (C) At the press conference, Nawaz read out a statement saying there was an agreement "in principle" that the deposed judiciary should be restored. Again, Zardari declined to comment. Rehman said that she had written the statement and that the PML-N had agreed to follow the PPP formulation on this issue. According to Rehman, this involved a plan to forward a proposal to parliamentary committees to consider the issue. See septel for additional analysis on this issue. Restoring the 1973 Constitution -------------- ¶8. (C) Both Zardari and Nawaz committed to restoration of the 1973 Constitution. In effect, this means shifting power from the President to the Prime Minister over key issues. The first goal would be to eliminate the ability of the President to dissolve the National Assembly (the famous 58.2(b) clause that Benazir unsuccessfully lobbied Musharraf to drop). It also means giving the PM the power to appoint governors and the commanders of the armed forces. ¶9. (C) The Charter of Democracy signed in May 2006 by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif (and their respective campaign platforms) include additional goals. These include abolishing the presidential National Security Council and replacing it with a Defense Cabinet Committee headed by the PM, making the PM the commander in chief of the armed forces, putting nuclear assets under the control of the PM, making the intelligence services report to and receive budget approval from the PM, requiring the parliament to approve the military's budget, establishing an independent Election Commission, establishing a "Truth and Reconciliation Commission," creating an independent National Accountability Board, laying out new procedures for selecting judges, and eliminating the term limit on prime ministerships. Provincial Autonomy -------------- ¶10. (C) Zardari (a Baloch) specifically mentioned establishing a general amnesty in Balochistan. This is a reference to the many Balochi separatists who have been detained by the current government without charge. The issue of these "disappeared" was championed by the former Chief Justice. In his separate statements to the press, ANP President Khan also stressed the importance of receiving greater provincial autonomy for the NWFP. How that will play out with respect to policy in the tribal areas is unclear. Terrorism -------------- ¶11. (U) At the press conference, both Zardari and Nawaz said that eliminating terrorism was a joint goal; neither elaborated on how they planned to achieve it. Grass Roots Reactions -------------- ¶12. (C) Post's sources within the PPP indicate that not everyone is on board with this alliance. The PPP Executive Committee continues to explore the possibility of a coalition government without Nawaz or Musharraf's party. The success of this idea would depend on the PPP's ability to woo the bloc of independent candidates and convince a chunk of Musharraf's party to defect to the PPP. Pakistan Muslim ISLAMABAD 00000786 003 OF 003 League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain confirmed to Ambassador (septel) rumors of growing defections in Musharraf's party; the question is whether they are going to Nawaz or to the PPP. ¶13. (C) Post's sources within PML-N also report that the rank and file are dubious about the strategic value of a coalition with the PPP. They, too, are busy coaxing independents and PML members to their side. The definition of "support" for the PPP may not extend to accepting ministerial positions in the next government (Ref B). The PML-N may forego ministries at the national level in exchange for not giving PPP ministries in the Punjab Provincial Assembly. The long game for both PPP and PML-N is to build constituencies in the Punjab. If the PML-N expects the next government to be short-lived, they may keep their distance and wait until the next round of elections. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) This is still a shaky alliance, one that could be based on the need to publicly show they first tried to respect the voters' preferences before moving to other options. Neither party seems comfortable with the other, and they are relying on carefully crafted compromise statements or silence on sensitive issues to paper over differences. PPP may prefer to rule alone, and it appears Nawaz may prefer to sit in opposition and plan for the future. Musharraf has made it clear (Ref A) that he will seek to undermine Nawaz; the PPP is unlikely to object to efforts that strengthen its hand. ¶15. (C) Septel will examine the hurdles to reinstating the judges. Major constitutional change requires a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate. Despite emotional euphoria and grand plans, even a numerically strong PPP-Nawaz coalition in the Assembly cannot overcome the fact that Musharraf's PML party will control the Senate until 2009. PATTERSON