AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000764



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2018

TAGS: PGOV, PK, PREL

SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF





Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and DCM met with President

Musharraf, Principal Military Secretary Shafqaat Ahmad, and

DG ISI Nadeem Taj the afternoon of February 21. Musharraf

wanted to give Ambassador his assessment of the ongoing

government formation process. He indicated he was strongly

encouraging Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) co-chair Asif

Zardari to form a coalition consisting of PPP, Pakistan

Muslim League (PML-Q),Awami National Party (ANP),Muttahida

Quami Movement (MQM),and a number of independent National

Assembly members. The President's reasoning was that such a

coalition would provide the PPP with the ability to lead a

coalition government at the federal level and in all four

provincial assemblies. Post believes that excluding Nawaz

Sharif from all the provincial assemblies as well as the

national government is not realistic. End summary.



2. (C) In a private meeting following a two hour briefing on

Mission Islamabad's Federally Administered Tribal Areas

(FATA) Development plan, Musharraf outlined his current

assessment of ongoing government formation. He opined that

the only solution that made sense for both the PPP and the

good of Pakistan was a large coalition of numerous parties

that explicitly excluded Nawaz Sharif's PML-N. He noted the

creation of such a coalition would allow the PPP to both rule

at the center and in all four provincial assemblies. He

noted that, leaving his personal feelings about Nawaz Sharif

aside, the PPP would be foolish to enter in any coalition

with the Sharif faction. He explained that any agreement

with the PML-N would be fraught with difficulties from the

first day, with PML-N party leadership doing everything

possible to undercut the PPP and its leadership. He added

that the policy objectives of the PPP and the other parties

were congruent and that over time any PPP association with

the PML-N would only fracture the PPP's base.



3. (C) Ambassador asked why Nawaz Sharif, who had a

significant victory, would agree to being excluded from the

National Assembly and from all the provincial assemblies.

Musharraf and Nadeem Taj said that Nawaz should get "nothing"

and, if PPP played its cards right, Nawaz could be excluded

from any leadership position. Ambassador and DCM replied

that this scenario, particularly the exclusion of Nawaz from

the Punjab assembly leadership, where his party was the

largest vote getter, was not very realistic.



4. (C) Musharraf claimed the MQM was already on board with

such a proposal, the PML-Q would support it, and the ANP and

the remaining independents could be convinced to join with

PPP. The real problem, he claimed, was that Zardari was

thinking tactically and not strategically. In his opinion,

Zardari still failed to understand how the PML-N would

undercut him, and just how great the difference is between

the parties' two platforms. Musharraf went on to note that

Zardari's hold on the party was nowhere nearly as firm as his

late wife's. If Zardari were to maintain control, he would

have to do more to ensure he did not alienate the party

mainstream. In response to a question from Ambassador,

Musharraf indicated that Zardari would be forced to make Amin

Faheem Prime Minister for two reasons: to have a Sindhi lead

the government and to maintain loyalty from within the party.

Musharraf agreed that Amin Fahim was not a strong leader and

had a reputation for laziness but argued that the regional

credentials would be more valuable than his managerial

ability.



5. (C) Comment: It remains unclear if the proposed coalition

members can coalesce into a workable government. While he is

no doubt correct that any PML-N/PPP coalition would be

fraught with backstabbing and subterfuge, Musharraf has yet

to absorb the extent of the PML-Q's loss. Musharraf,

however, was calm and gracious during the meeting and

appeared confident. We are less than 48 hours from the

election results having been officially announced. While all

the parties are eager to form a government, we expect it will

be days before every possible variation is raised and probed.

We will remain engaged and meet with all political

leadership. Even though Zardari has been roundly criticized

in the press for coming to the US Embassy the day after the

election, all the political players have reiterated their

interest in working with the US and in fighting terrorism.

While this is exactly what we would expect them to say, they



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are actively seeking us out to convey this message. End

comment.

PATTERSON