Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08ISLAMABAD764 | 2008-02-21 15:52:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000764 |
1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and DCM met with President
Musharraf, Principal Military Secretary Shafqaat Ahmad, and DG ISI Nadeem Taj the afternoon of February 21. Musharraf wanted to give Ambassador his assessment of the ongoing government formation process. He indicated he was strongly encouraging Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) co-chair Asif Zardari to form a coalition consisting of PPP, Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q), Awami National Party (ANP), Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), and a number of independent National Assembly members. The President's reasoning was that such a coalition would provide the PPP with the ability to lead a coalition government at the federal level and in all four provincial assemblies. Post believes that excluding Nawaz Sharif from all the provincial assemblies as well as the national government is not realistic. End summary. 2. (C) In a private meeting following a two hour briefing on Mission Islamabad's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Development plan, Musharraf outlined his current assessment of ongoing government formation. He opined that the only solution that made sense for both the PPP and the good of Pakistan was a large coalition of numerous parties that explicitly excluded Nawaz Sharif's PML-N. He noted the creation of such a coalition would allow the PPP to both rule at the center and in all four provincial assemblies. He noted that, leaving his personal feelings about Nawaz Sharif aside, the PPP would be foolish to enter in any coalition with the Sharif faction. He explained that any agreement with the PML-N would be fraught with difficulties from the first day, with PML-N party leadership doing everything possible to undercut the PPP and its leadership. He added that the policy objectives of the PPP and the other parties were congruent and that over time any PPP association with the PML-N would only fracture the PPP's base. 3. (C) Ambassador asked why Nawaz Sharif, who had a significant victory, would agree to being excluded from the National Assembly and from all the provincial assemblies. Musharraf and Nadeem Taj said that Nawaz should get "nothing" and, if PPP played its cards right, Nawaz could be excluded from any leadership position. Ambassador and DCM replied that this scenario, particularly the exclusion of Nawaz from the Punjab assembly leadership, where his party was the largest vote getter, was not very realistic. 4. (C) Musharraf claimed the MQM was already on board with such a proposal, the PML-Q would support it, and the ANP and the remaining independents could be convinced to join with PPP. The real problem, he claimed, was that Zardari was thinking tactically and not strategically. In his opinion, Zardari still failed to understand how the PML-N would undercut him, and just how great the difference is between the parties' two platforms. Musharraf went on to note that Zardari's hold on the party was nowhere nearly as firm as his late wife's. If Zardari were to maintain control, he would have to do more to ensure he did not alienate the party mainstream. In response to a question from Ambassador, Musharraf indicated that Zardari would be forced to make Amin Faheem Prime Minister for two reasons: to have a Sindhi lead the government and to maintain loyalty from within the party. Musharraf agreed that Amin Fahim was not a strong leader and had a reputation for laziness but argued that the regional credentials would be more valuable than his managerial ability. 5. (C) Comment: It remains unclear if the proposed coalition members can coalesce into a workable government. While he is no doubt correct that any PML-N/PPP coalition would be fraught with backstabbing and subterfuge, Musharraf has yet to absorb the extent of the PML-Q's loss. Musharraf, however, was calm and gracious during the meeting and appeared confident. We are less than 48 hours from the election results having been officially announced. While all the parties are eager to form a government, we expect it will be days before every possible variation is raised and probed. We will remain engaged and meet with all political leadership. Even though Zardari has been roundly criticized in the press for coming to the US Embassy the day after the election, all the political players have reiterated their interest in working with the US and in fighting terrorism. While this is exactly what we would expect them to say, they ISLAMABAD 00000764 002 OF 002 are actively seeking us out to convey this message. End comment. PATTERSON |