ANATOMY OF A DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000746 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PK SUBJECT: ANATOMY OF A DEFEAT ISLAMABAD 00000746 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Overall, Pakistan's February 18 election process went better than anyone expected. Voter turnout was approximately 48%, and violence was lower than in past elections. Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party suffered a stunning defeat, dropping from 144 to 40 seats; its party president and spokesman, speaker of parliament and 16 former cabinet-level members lost the election. Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) nearly doubled its national seats from 44 to 86 and likely will control the Sindh provincial assembly with or without the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party that runs Karachi. The Awami National Party and the PPP benefited from a dramatic drop in seats controlled by the religious parties (from 52 to 6) and likely will rule together in the Northwest Frontier Province. Control of the Balochistan province will be split among several parties, including the PML, the PPP and the religious parties. In the critical Punjab, the big story was the comeback of Nawaz Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party ran on an anti-Musharraf platform and increased its seats from 12 to 67 in the national assembly. PML-N will control the Punjab provincial assembly. ¶2. (C) The defeat of Musharraf's party appeared to be based on a general demand for change after eight years of his rule, voter discontent with rising food prices and growing electricity outages, the pro-PPP sympathy vote after Benazir's assassination, and a dramatic increase in votes for Nawaz Sharif's party. See septel on the reports of international observers on the conduct of the election. End Summary. ¶3. (U) Unofficial Pakistan Election Commission results as of 1600 local on February 20: Pakistan People's Party (PPP): 86 Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N): 67 Pakistan Muslim League (PML): 40 Independents: 27 Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM): 19 Awami National Party (ANP): 9 Religious party block (MMA): 6 Pakistan Muslim League Functional (PML-F): 4 National People's Party (NPP): 1 Balochistan National Party (BNP-A): 1 Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao (PPP-S): 1 Total: 261 Elections postponed due to death or violence: 4 Results Pending (candidates requesting recount, etc): 7 Total 272 --Note: these are all seat totals that do not include the apportioned seats for women (60) and non-Muslim minorities (10). By-Elections/Independents -------------- ¶4. (SBU) We expect at least nine (9) additional and/or by-elections for seats where candidates died (2),where candidates won in more than one constituency (5),and where elections were postponed due to violence (2). The Election Commission will schedule these by-elections, probably in April. Of the 28 candidates elected as independents, 10 are from the tribal areas and are not legally allowed to align with any party; the historic reality is that these members vote with the government. Many of the others are expected to follow the winner and align with either the PPP or the PML-N, although all the major parties will be lobbying for their loyalty in the coming days. A Stunning Defeat -------------- ¶5. (SBU) This was a stunning defeat for Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party. The party that dominated the last National Assembly with 144 votes this time won only ISLAMABAD 00000746 002.2 OF 003 40 seats. The President of the PML, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, and former Foreign Minister, Kurshid Kasuri, both lost in their hometowns. The Speaker of the National Assembly, Chaudhary Amir Hussain, failed to retain his seat. The former Chief Minister of Punjab and expected candidate for Prime Minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, won one national seat but lost in two others. The party's spokesman and former Railways Minister, Sheikh Rashid, lost a seat he has held through the last five elections. Overall, 16 former national ministers or secretaries went down to defeat. Five former government ministers won re-election, but two of them--Aftab Sherpao and Hina Rabbani Khar--won on PPP-S and PPP-P rosters respectively. MQM, which was a coalition partner in the last government, increased its seats from 14 to 19, but is widely reported to be considering a switch to join the PPP in a coalition government. Turnout -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Turnout was higher than expected; despite a slow start, many citizens (especially women) came out in the afternoon after security fears ebbed. The Election Commission has not released final figures, but there was a turnout of approximately 48%. Violence, especially compared with previous elections, was not as high as expected and thankfully there were no suicide bombings. Change/Economic Woes -------------- ¶7. (C) There were several reasons, some predicted and some not, for the results. As the International Republican Institute (IRI) and other polls predicted, the anti-Musharraf vote was strong, even in his Punjab stronghold. Historically, Pakistanis have tired of their governments after seven-eight years; after eight years of Musharraf's rule, they clearly wanted a change this time. Although the PML held on to some traditional rural constituencies in the Punjab and Balochistan, the government's traditional pork barrel deliverables could not overcome basic economic concerns. Food and rent prices have been rising over the past year, and in the past few months flour shortages (due to poor distribution management) and rolling electricity outages created disgruntled voters. ¶8. (C) As expected, the PPP rode a wave of sympathy votes to sweep Bhutto's native Sindh province, except for Karachi where MQM dominated again. The PPP likely will be able to rule the provincial government there, with or without the MQM. Elsewhere, the PPP picked up seats in the Punjab, Balochistan and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). The PPP remains the only party that can claim to be truly a national in scope. ¶9. (C) Back in September, Musharraf and his advisors were viscerally opposed to allowing Nawaz Sharif to return from exile because they feared he would leech PML voters and sweep to victory. In the Punjab, it appears this is exactly what happened. Nawaz's anti-Musharraf campaign appealed to a wide range of voters, but it seems that many voters who abandoned Nawaz after he was exiled switched back when he returned. Although Musharraf and his advisors were concerned that Nawaz would use Saudi money to pick up seats, they fully expected to keep the Punjab. Even Nawaz was surprised at how well his party performed at the polls. At a minimum, PML-N will control the Punjab provincial government. Religious Parties Fall -------------- ¶10. (C) The best news from the election was the defeat of the religious parties. As widely predicted, voters responded to the inability of the religious parties which controlled the NWFP to deliver either Sharia law or services by kicking them out. The MMA block, which led the opposition with 52 seats in the last National Assembly, dropped to 6 seats. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Fazlur Rehman, who was known as Pakistan's shrewdest politician, had been working with Musharraf to enable his re-election as president. Fazlur expected to be a kingmaker, if not a candidate for Prime Minister, after the parliamentary election. Rehman broke ISLAMABAD 00000746 003.2 OF 003 with the other main religious party, Qazi Hussain's Jamaat-e-Islami party, in deciding not to boycott the election; Fazlur has now paid the price by losing in his hometown. ¶11. (C) The Pashtun-based Awami National Party and the PPP both benefited from the MMA losses. They are likely to form a coalition government in the NWFP provincial assembly. The ANP is also positioned to play an important role in coalition formulation at the national level. PATTERSON