ELECTION COMMISSION SECRETARY'S PREDICTIONS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000696

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION SECRETARY'S PREDICTIONS AND
PROMISES

REF: ISLAMABAD 670

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador met with the Election
Commission Secretary February 15. In addition to predicting
a strong showing by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, he
commented on the relative strength of Pakistan's three main
parties and their leaders. He thought turnout would be
generally low, but that some key groups would likely support
the PML-N. Dilshad also responded to the Ambassador's
concerns regarding the accreditation of thousands of domestic
observers, promising that thousands more would receive
credentials in time. He insisted that the vote count would
be transmitted up the chain from polling station presiding
officers to ECP headquarters in a transparent manner. Plus,
Dilshad added, the level of scrutiny by the media,
international community and opposition political parties
would minimize electoral tampering. End summary.

Political Predictions
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador met with Election Commission (ECP)
Secretary Kunwar Dilshad February 15. Dilshad offered the

SIPDIS
meeting to brief the Ambassador on the ECP's preparations for
the February 18 general elections. Instead, Dilshad spent
most of the time providing his analysis of how Pakistan's
largest parties will fare.


3. (C) Dilshad praised Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif's
campaign as "impressive," adding that Punjabis now saw Sharif
as "the only credible leader of the opposition," with the
loss of Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto. Of
the 148 contested Punjabi seats in the National Assembly
(there are 35 more seats reserved to the province for women),
Dilshad predicted the PML-N could win upto 65 seats; the PPP
could win upto 50; the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q would
come in third (no number given).


4. (C) Surprisingly, Dilshad doubted the PML-Q would win much
more than 60 contested seats nationwide. He warned, however,
that about 50 "independent" candidates were actually funded
by the PML-Q and so should be added to the party's column.
When asked if these "independents" would go with whichever
party won the plurality, Dilshad was adamant that they would
stay with their benefactor. Dilshad informed that winning
candidates, if not already identified with a particular
party, have three days to inform the ECP with which party
they will align.


5. (C) Asked about the PPP leadership that has come to the
fore since the December 27 assassination of Bhutto, Dilshad
considered co-Vice Chairman Makhdoom Amin Faheem as
"thoughtful" and co-Vice Chairman Raza Gilani as a "powerful
speaker," but co-Chairman (and Bhutto widower) Asif Zardari
as "nice but not popular in Punjab." Even though the PPP
"has no real leader," Dilshad concluded, it could count on a
solid 25 percent of the Punjab vote, as well as about 50
percent of the Sindhi seats.


6. (C) The rest of the Sindhi seats in the National Assembly
would mainly go to the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM). And,
the Pashtun-based Awami National Party (ANP) will align with
the PML-N, Dilshad asserted.

Turnout
--------------


7. (C) Despite weighty issues and a heated contest, the fear
of suicide attacks on election day (and Interior Ministry
warnings of such),would depress voter turnout, according to
Dilshad. He expected no more than 40 percent would come to
the polls. (Note: Only 35 percent came out for the 1997
general elections, and 42 percent showed for the 2002 general
elections.)


8. (C) Dilshad expected that young voters would be out in
force. He guessed that they would mainly support opposition
parties. Additionally, he felt the PML-N's chances were the
best of the three competing parties because religious
conservatives would support the PML-N (with Jamaat-e-Islami

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boycotting the race) and the anti-Musharraf vote would also
go to the party (with PPP's Benazir Bhutto gone).

Election Promises
--------------


9. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's recent letter to the
Chief Election Commissioner about the (then) minuscule number
of credentials issued to Pakistani domestic observers,
Dilshad claimed that the ECP was "very surprised" that local
district returning officers (DROs) were "creating
hindrances." He noted that he had just ordered provincial
election commissioners to issue credentials if DROs did not.
(Note: It appears that around 11,000 domestic observers will
get credentials in time.) Dilshad claimed that the problem
remained in southern Punjab. Dilshad added that, actually,
Bhutto insisted in the 1988 general elections that the
judiciary take over the role of DROs.


10. (C) Dilshad promised that the presiding officer at each
polling station would announce the results of that station's
count. The district returning officer will then compile
these numbers and send the sum of the votes to the ECP in
Islamabad on election night. Copies of form 16 and 17, which
together describe the support for each candidate, will, for
the first time, be offered to those candidates, Dilshad
further promised.


11. (C) Most "unofficial results," however, are not expected
until February 19, Dilshad said, and the ECP will compile all
these numbers before party agents on February 20. Dilshad
expected that, as "unofficial results" are released, they
would be posted on the ECP website. (Note: This is a project
supported by USG-funded IFES.) The final official results
are expected by February 26.


12. (C) Dilshad insisted that electoral rigging "would be
difficult" because of all the local and international media
attention, because of pressure from the U.S. and the rest of
the international community, and because of the threat of
post-election violence by opposition parties.

PATTERSON