GE LOCOMOTIVE ADVOCACY TO BE DECIDED AT PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003807 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD EIND ELTN EINV PK SUBJECT: GE LOCOMOTIVE ADVOCACY TO BE DECIDED AT PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A commercial decision to procure 75 locomotives by the state-owned Pakistan Railways has turned into a political decision after the newly appointed Minister of Railways announced that he would nullify a letter of intent to procure Chinese locomotives in favor of a General Electric/Marubeni offering. The Chinese Ambassador and Foreign Minister contacted President Zardari to complain about this decision and President Zardari has hastily formed a committee to help him produce a recommendation. A decision either way will surely disappoint an important ally, but the decision will also be an important signal to the US and Chinese business communities about the nature of Pakistan's public procurement market. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE IN NEED OF CAPITAL UPGRADE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Within the past two years, the seriously unprofitable Pakistani Railways has issued international tenders in order to fulfill some critically needed capital improvements. Several companies expressed interest in the tender for 75 new locomotives, but a consortium of General Electric/Marubeni and the Chinese manufacturer, Dalian Dong Fang, were the finalists. At the public bid opening in the summer of 2008, the Chinese offering price was one half that of the GE/Marubeni offer. ¶3. (SBU) The process of selecting the best bid quickly revealed fissures in the Pakistan Railways bureaucracy. The technical committee that reviewed the two bids presented its evaluation to the official tender committee. It found that the GE/Marubeni consortium met the technical specifications on the three locomotive models that were sought. The Chinese offer, on the other hand, was found "unsuitable" on one of the three models, suitable, on a trial basis, for a second model, and suitable for the third model. ¶4. (SBU) The newly appointed Chairman of the Railways, Kashif Murtaza told the DCM, Comcouns and Econoff that he was brought in to conclude some important tenders as soon as possible. His recent appointment has coincided with a major reshuffle of the official tender committee, which then unanimously voted to select the Chinese offer. After this decision, the Railways sent Dalian Dong Fang a letter of intent in September. An internal struggle within the bureaucracy has ensued, which pits senior staff who are unhappy about the procurement process and who favor the technically superior GE/Marubeni bid against the chairman of the Railways and his handpicked team of senior managers who appear to be seduced by the very low Chinese price. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - APPEALING TO WHAT IS IN PAKISTAN'S BEST INTEREST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) The low Chinese price is obscuring some serious technical flaws in the Chinese proposal. Not only is one locomotive model unsuitable for the tender requirements, but the other models do not meet the required axle loads which could cause long term (and expensive) damage to the rail infrastructure. The known failure rates of the Chinese locomotives and its fuel inefficiency also call into question the true life-cycle costs of the Dalian Dong Fang offer. The GE/Marubeni bid also included six separate financing options, including one offer to finance USD 250 million over ten years at Libor plus 0.05 per cent with no commitment fee. This highly competitive rate was aimed squarely at previously known China Exim financing of locomotives with 15 year terms at Libor plus 1.30 percent. - - - - - - - - - - - - HERE COMES THE CAVALRY - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Since the beginning of fall, Post has been signaling to the GOP concerns that Pakistan Railways has overlooked the full evaluation of the two offers and instead has focused on the low price offered by Dalian Dong Fang. As matters were moving towards a final decision point on November 27, the DCM called on Minister of Railways Bilour on November 20 to express these concerns in person. The Minister was sympathetic to our arguments, and openly admitted that the GE/Marubeni offer was technically superior, but he fell back on the point that the Railways was broke and could not ignore ISLAMABAD 00003807 002 OF 003 the lower price for the Chinese locomotives, which he felt were "good enough." The Minister nonetheless invited the post to brief his senior management team on November 25 to ensure that all parties' arguments would be heard. ¶7. (SBU) The day before the scheduled meeting, Comcouns and Econcouns learned from Salman Farruqui, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission that the recommendation to buy Chinese locomotives had been sent from the cabinet level National Executive Council back to the Railways Ministry for review and that Minister Bilour was fully empowered to make the final decision. ¶8. (SBU) Minister Bilour opened the meeting on November 25 and stayed for its entire ninety minute duration. A member of the Parliamentary standing committee on the Railways, which has openly questioned the decision to purchase Chinese locomotives, attended for the first twenty minutes. The Chairman of the Railways conducted the meeting and he brought with him approximately 12 of his most senior executives. Comcouns was accompanied by Econoff, an LES economic specialist and a representative of the Japanese Embassy. Comcouns was given the opportunity to present a list of issues which focused on the technical merits of the two offers and on whether the Dalian Dong Fang bid was technically compliant. There was insufficient time to fully address a comparison of the life cycle costs, nor did we discuss the finance options. Not surprisingly, the Pakistan Railways presenters anticipated each argument in a rehearsed fashion, and the meeting was less of a discussion and more of a presentation of how the tender committee rationalized its decision. ¶9. (SBU) There were at least six areas where the Railways presentation obscured or covered up known technical advantages by GE/Marubeni. Upon confirming these details, the Ambassador sent a letter to Prime Minister Gilani, which was copied to Minister Bilour. On November 27, Minister Bilour held a final meeting with his senior management where he overruled their recommendation and instructed the Railways to award the contract to GE/Marubeni. - - - - - - - - - - - - ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) Within 24 hours the Chinese Ambassador had contacted President Zardari to complain. The Chinese Foreign Minister also contacted President Zardari over the weekend to register his concerns. President Zardari responded by summoning Minister Bilour, who explained that the government would experience a scandal if the tender was awarded to the Chinese. Zardari then hastily formed a committee comprised of the Finance Minister, the Minister of Railways, the Chairman of the Railways, the deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, and another Finance Ministry representative to produce a recommendation. Before this committee could meet some of its members left for the Haj and will not be back until mid December. Meanwhile, the Chinese have extended their bid validity until December 31. ¶11. (SBU) Press reporting on this case has been negative towards the Chinese locomotives, which are known to be underperforming in the Railways fleet. Since Minister Bilour's decision to reverse the contract in GE's favor, a few press articles have started to focus on US Embassy pressure. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ambassador is reportedly making the rounds discussing soft loans for new railway coaches and wagons. The chief representative in Pakistan for Dalian Dong Fang is also calling on officials and complaining about U.S. pressure, while making some questionable statements about the performance of his product. - - - - COMMENT - - - - ¶12. (SBU) Pakistan cannot afford to postpone the procurement of new locomotives since the locomotives are sorely needed and delivery times take more than a year. The politically expedient decision would be to split the procurement and give GE the award for the more valuable locomotives that Dalian Dong Fang could not produce to specifications. A decision, however, was reached at a bidders' conference early in the process not to split the procurement, and this option is still somewhat problematic. ISLAMABAD 00003807 003 OF 003 A large tender like this one goes a long way to defining the reputation of a government for running transparent or opaque tenders. If the GE/Marubeni offer succeeds, this will send a positive signal to US business that rules will be followed in Pakistani public tendering procedures. If the Chinese bid is successful, US firms will find it harder to justify competing in a market where Chinese manufacturers apply predatory pricing and soft loan tactics. Post will continue to engage in advocacy for this important commercial issue. End Comment. PATTERSON