PAKISTAN FUEL RESERVE LEVELS IMPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003804 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECLASS 12/09/18 TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN FUEL RESERVE LEVELS IMPROVE REFS: A) ISLAMABAD 3264 B) ISLAMABAD 3647 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Government of Pakistan (GOP) officials remain reluctant to discuss Pakistan's overall strategic fuel reserves but the approval of the International Monetary Fund program has provided Pakistan with the ability to purchase supplies and increase its domestic commercial fuel reserves. Fuel stocks on average are much lower year-on-year but are within the GOP's 10 day reserve supply. The liquidity crunch in Pakistan continues to affect the energy sector with non-payment to energy suppliers reaching record high levels. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Government of Pakistan officials in the various Ministries related to energy policy remain reluctant to discuss the country's overall strategic oil reserve levels with Post. However, Post has received updates from private business entities and Ministry of Finance officials who indicate that Pakistan will continue to maintain only 10 days worth of reserve supplies due to the country's overall fiscal constraints. While contacts confirm that Pakistan's overall strategic reserves are on average only at 10 days of supply, Pakistan's ability to purchase crude oil on the international market has improved with the approval of the Stand By Agreement with the International Monetary Fund. -------------- RESERVES ARE LOW BUT ON TARGET -------------- ¶3. (C) On December 6, Zafar-Ul-Hussan, Deputy Economic Advisor, Ministry of Finance (protect source),described Pakistan's refined fuel stock reserves in advance of a briefing to the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) meeting. Hussan maintained that although the present GOP policy is to hold 10 days of fuel for strategic reserves rather than 21 days as the GOP previously did until October, Pakistan's current overall stock position has improved and is not problematic. He said that the IMF is fully on board with the GOP's plan to conserve foreign exchange reserves by holding the least amount of fuel stocks possible while fuel prices are low. The GOP reduced the strategic reserve requirement from 21 to 10 days in October in order to boost foreign exchange reserves (reftel). ¶4. (C) Hussan provided a comparison year-on-year and noted that the ECC was informed that the country has 13 days furnace (fuel) oil stock compared to last year's 28 days stock. Similarly, the country has 12 days of high octane gasoline compared to last year's 36 days, 8 days of petrol stock compared to last year's 8 days, 19 days of jet fuel compared to last year's 23 days, 28 days of kerosene oil compared to last year's 24 days, 13 days of high speed diesel stocks compared to last year's 12 days, and 17 days of light speed diesel stocks compared to last year's 28 day stocks. -------------- MONEY FLOWS STILL TIGHT -------------- ¶5. (C) Kaleem Ahmed Sadique, Managing Director, Pakistan State Oil (PSO),also told EconOff that Pakistan has 10 days of crude oil supplies which is on par with the national target levels. Sadique said that the combined debt owed to PSO by the GOP and independent power producers (who are owed money from the GOP for power production) is PKR 74 billion (USD 937 million),of which PKR 64 billion (USD 810 million) is in default. ¶6. (C) Haroun Khawaja, Managing Director, AES Pakistan Private Limited noted that AES fuel stock reserves have improved dramatically since last month when AES was only able to maintain 3 hours worth of stock due to shortfalls and the company now maintains 3 days worth of furnace oil at their two local power plants. Khawaja further noted that the stocks are still very low, however, and AES would build up to 10 days worth of supply if the GOP had paid its debt. ¶7. (C) Khawaja stated that on December 3 the Government paid AES PKR 750 million (USD 9.5 million) in outstanding dues which leaves a balance of PKR 7.5 billion (USD 95 million). Khawaja said that USD 93 million of this is technically in default and that the GOP has not cleared its debt in the last two years which has resulted in record debt levels owed to AES. Khawaja noted that with so much of the GOP debt in default, AES has the "right to terminate the contract, turn over its assets to the GOP, take its money, and go home" however, AES has not called on this provision in the hope that the GOP will clear ISLAMABAD 00003804 002 OF 002 its payments. Khawaja noted that AES can only wait for so long, however, as its shareholders will eventually lose patience and want to move out of Pakistan. ¶8. (C) Comment. While Pakistan's overall liquidity crunch continues to hamper development and improvements to lessen Pakistan's energy shortfalls, local energy producers are growing incredibly frustrated by the lack of payment from the GOP. Likewise, the public continues to grow increasingly frustrated by the continuous prolonged energy blackouts nationwide which are resulting from both inefficient transmission and distribution systems and from temporary closures by the power companies due to their inability to buy fuel as a result of the massive debt owed by the GOP. While money from the IMF program has been deposited in the State Bank of Pakistan, these funds cannot be used to pay for the debt to power producers and end the circular debt issues underlying Pakistan's energy woes. End Comment. PATTERSON