NEW IRI POLL: ZARDARI BLAMED FOR PAKISTAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003796 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR MOPS PK SUBJECT: NEW IRI POLL: ZARDARI BLAMED FOR PAKISTAN'S PROBLEMS; SUPPORT FOR WAR ON TERROR DEPENDS ON WORDING REF: ISLAMABAD 2415 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The latest International Republican Institute poll, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy and conducted at the end of October, found this GOP as unpopular as the previous administration of former President Pervez Musharraf. Current President Asif Zardari is taking the blame for the bad security and economic situation throughout the country and is bested, by a significant margin, by opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. The Army's popularity has risen over the last several months, and fewer Pakistanis would now be concerned with its involvement in civilian government. These are notable changes from IRI's June poll. The public is more concerned than before with extremism and Al Qaeda/Taliban activities, but they are also more concerned about alleged U.S. drone attacks. IRI, in this poll, tested a number of alternate themes and terms, and found that support for the war on terror, the Pakistan Army's operations against militants, and the GOP's cooperation with the U.S. could all go up by considerable amounts. End summary. Baseline & Bottomline - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) The International Republican Institute (IRI) is prepared to release as early as December 11 its latest Pakistan-wide poll. This is the ninth such poll conducted by IRI in over two years, based on in-home interviews of 3,500 persons from October 15 - 30. (Note: As a point of historical reference, the Marriott bombing occurred on September 20.) ¶3. (C) Generally, the poll found growing public discontent at levels comparable to that at the end of the Musharraf administration before the February 18 parliamentary elections. This discontent shades evaluations of the economic and security crises, political leaders, especially President Zardari, and even democracy itself. Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is bearing the brunt of the souring mood, losing the support of some former PPP voters. IRI's June poll foreshadowed the now evident trend. Terror... - - - - - ¶4. (C) According to the IRI poll, all indices showing concern about terrorism are up, with 78 percent of Pakistanis saying they feel less secure now than a year ago, citing by 51 percent Al Qaeda/Taliban as a "serious problem," and backing the Army's fight against extremists (38 percent),Al Qaeda (34 percent),and the Taliban (30 percent). The previous 64 percent who supported peace deals with militants went down to 54 percent. More think Pakistan should cooperate with the U.S. on the war on terror (WoT) (from 15 percent up to 28 percent),and their support of the WoT also went up slightly (from nine percent in June to 15 percent now). ¶5. (C) More disheartening, a full 50 percent are unsure of who bears responsibility for the September 20 bombing of the Islamabad Marriott, and 20 percent actually blame the U.S. Only seven percent became more supportive of the Army's counterterrorism campaign because of the bombing, while 24 percent became less supportive and 42 percent were unmoved. This latter group uniformly oppose Army actions as well as cooperation with the U.S. Though the numbers have dropped, Pakistanis still view Al Qaeda (14 percent) and the Taliban (21 percent) more favorably than the U.S. (eight percent). The poll found overall that Pakistanis who were more educated, wealthy, urban, secular and living farther from the frontier were less supportive of the war on terror and related policies. ... By Any Other Name - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Only 13 percent agreed with the statement: "I support the U.S. making military incursions in the tribal areas," and 54 percent were more concerned about alleged U.S. missile strikes from Afghanistan into Pakistan than Al Qaeda/Taliban attacks from bases in Pakistan into Afghanistan. But 49 ISLAMABAD 00003796 002 OF 003 percent thought: "The U.S. should assist Pakistan in fighting foreign extremists in the tribal areas," including missile strikes if the GOP is informed first and action is "coordinated." A similarly phrased message increases support for direct Army action to 63 percent. And 66 percent agreed that "extremists" killing innocents is "prohibited by the Qur'an" and "brings disgrace upon our religion of peace." ¶7. (C) Breaking down the numbers, IRI found support for the Army's counterterrorism campaign increased by 7 points when the fight was against "extremists" instead of the "Taliban" or "Al Qaeda." Extremism was considered more of a problem, 16 percent more, than the two named terrorist organizations. Many Pakistanis also accepted the message that "foreign fighters" were killing innocent Pakistanis and, consequently, weakening the nation. These new messages drew support across the board, particularly in Sindh and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Again, the older and more affluent the respondent, the less support even these terms garner. Little Credit - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Pakistanis are still pessimistic about their future; 88 percent think their country is moving in the wrong direction, but 86 percent thought this in June (when Musharraf was still president) and 84 percent thought this in January (when Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) still controlled government). It also appears the PPP's honeymoon is over; the National Assembly's favorabilities are down from 81 percent to 56 percent and the government in general is down from 85 percent to 31 percent. The "opposition" writ large, on the other hand, is up to 31 percent once the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) formally left the coalition in late August. ¶9. (C) Pakistanis continue to have economic-related concerns, citing inflation (58 percent),unemployment (12 percent), poverty (seven percent),and electricity and water (seven percent) at the top. Since June, however, the occurrence of suicide bombings now ranks for the public in the top three issues. The on-going saga of whether and how to restore to the courts the pre-November 2007 judges has fallen off the radar. The public is supportive of the deposed judges, when specifically asked, but generally agree with the sentiment: "Musharraf has been removed and 58 of the 64 deposed judges have been restored; rather than more protesting and instability, it is time focus on more important issues such as the economy and security." Lawyers' movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan and former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry saw their likability plummet since June. The Horse Race - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) The ruling PPP, and President Zardari specifically, is taking the hit for the economic and security crises. The PPP-led GOP is now just as unpopular as the former ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) going into the February 18 parliamentary elections. Only 21 percent feel the GOP is addressing the important issues; PML in the January poll earned 18 percent. The general discontent with this government may also be souring perceptions of democracy and, conversely, pushing up the Army's image and an acceptance of its role in civilian government. Favorabilities on the police and Army are up, reaching 43 percent and 68 percent, respectively. Only 49 percent now feel the Army should have no role in civilian government, down from 62 percent in June, and 48 percent thought the civilian government should have only "some control" over the military. ¶11. (C) PML-N's Nawaz Sharif, like the Army, is also benefiting from the public's anger. Nawaz appears to have solidified the center-right electorate and is even polling well with former PPP voters, who say they dislike Zardari. Instead of potentially voting for the PML-N, however, this group accounts for a new development -- as many as 18 percent say they will not vote in the next elections. Alarmingly, nearly half of this number are Pashtuns, who would historically back the secular Awami National Party (ANP),a party in the current coalition government and lead party in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). ISLAMABAD 00003796 003 OF 003 ¶12. (C) About 60 percent blame Zardari for breaking up the previous grand coalition with the PML-N. Now that that coalition is history, a whopping 72 percent of Nawaz backers seem willing to join forces with Musharraf's PML, and 47 percent of PML supporters would choose a coalition with PML-N. This potentially leaves PPP out in the cold. If elections were held now, the party would garner only 19 percent of the vote, equal to President Zardari's approval rating (19 percent). Almost as many voters would not vote or do not know for whom they would vote. Meanwhile, PML-N has maintained its lead at 35 percent. Head-to-head, Nawaz beats Zardari 31 points to eight, and 59 percent would rather see Nawaz as president as opposed to 19 percent who like Zardari in the chair. ¶13. (C) Comment: While it is encouraging that more Pakistanis are taking the terrorist threat seriously, it is disheartening that they still represent only a minority. It is possible, however, that re-worked messages could garner more public support for actions against militants by the Pakistan Army and potentially in coordination with us. Meanwhile, the overwhelming security and economic crises have badly undercut the secular PPP in favor of the more conservative PML-N. Though the PML-N is also a secular party, it curries favor with the religious right, advocating dialogue with militant groups, for example. Like the Musharraf administration before it, this latest IRI poll shows that, if this PPP-led government cannot address the general discontent of the populace, it too will lose all popular support and, possibly, its power. End comment. PATTERSON