SPOT REPORT ON MOHMAND AGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003678 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREF PREL PTER PK SUBJECT: SPOT REPORT ON MOHMAND AGENCY REF: ISLAMABAD 3627 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Preliminary operations against militant forces by the Pakistan military have begun in Mohmand agency within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Local news sources and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) report that the numbers of those internally displaced persons (IDPs) are growing in Mohmand, forcing the provincial governments to form IDP camps in the surrounding areas. Although firm figures on the total number of IDPs is difficult to obtain due to the security situation, intial reports estimate roughly 10,000 persons have fled Mohmand to live with host families in Peshawar or in the IDP camps, with a total of 70,000 IDPs expected within the next ten days. USAID, through the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI),continues to work with Mohmand Agency Political Agents to preposition IDP assistance. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is also preparing existing IDP camps to accommodate the new arrivals. End summary. Pakistan Military Operations in Mohmand -------------- ¶2. (C) As of November 17, shaping operations by the Pakistan military in Michni area (southeast Mohmand) resulted in the death of 22 to 25 militants, the capture of seven others, and the detention of a would-be suicide bomber as he attempted to drive a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) toward a Pakistan military convoy. Pakistan air strikes and attack helicopter missions continue inside Mohmand in preparation for ground operations in southeast and northwest Mohmand. Following security forces operations at Tehsil Safi in Mohmand on November 17, hundreds of people began to evacuate and shift towards Kunar and Nangarhar provinces in Afghanistan. ¶3. (C) On November 18, Pakistan security forces reportedly killed five militants and injured five others in preliminary operations taking place in Mohmand. Security forces were reportedly conducting house-to-house sweeps in the militant stronghold of Shabqadar on the agency's southern border when the militants attacked. Local reports from the field support of the USAID Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) indicate that heavy fighting with artillery and rockets are increasing in frequency within this area. Pakistan military officials report that significant pockets of militants remain in Mohmand. In response, Pakistan air operations are taking place in the northern part of Mohmand while the 11th Corps is conducting specific ground operations in the south. Movement of Mohmand Agency Residents -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As these Pakistan security/military operations continue, Mohmand residents are fleeing to districts within the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Initial reports from the Pakistan government and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) noted that the initial displacement in Mohmand was limited, estimating approximately 10,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). However, as the operations in Mohmand continue, implementing partners for USAID estimate that these numbers could rise significantly to 70,000 IDPs within the next ten days. ¶5. (SBU) According to the OTI Mohmand staff, the only GOP officials remaining in the area are the Political Agents, with the line ministry officials having fled and forcing closures of government departments and offices. OTI also reports that the majority of the IDPs are from the southern half of Mohmand, from the areas of Qandaro, Safi, Ambar, Dawazi, Pandyali, and Machani vicinity, and some from the Khuzai and Bazai areas and the Ghallani Yousaf Khel village. As these IDPs are fleeing to nearby Peshawar, Charsada, and Mardan district within the NWFP, the provincial government is feeling the strain. ¶6. (C) In OTI Mohmand staff conversations with the Mohmand Additional Political Agent, Shaihid Ullah, the provincial administration is discouraging the IDPs in southern Mohmand from moving through an ongoing curfew issued in an effort to ISLAMABAD 00003678 002 OF 002 increase the success of targeted raids on area militants; the intent was not to disrupt the communities as a whole. However, tribes in northern and central Mohmand are being encouraged to leave by the provincial government due to the Pakistan air raids. Creation of IDP Camps -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Although the wealthier IDPs are staying with host families in the NWFP, their movement has forced local authorities to create temporary camps for those IDPs who have no where to go. In Peshawar, the provincial government, with the help from UNHCR, has been preparing the former Afghan refugee camp in Jalozai, which is currently being used to house the displaced persons from Bajaur, for the influx of Mohmand IDPs. Additionally, the Charsada district government outside Peshawar has identified two locations for the establishment of IDP camps, one at a sugar mill and another at the commerce college. (Note. UNHCR reports that it is ready to receive IDPs in Khacha Gari but that at this date, only five families have registered. End note.) ¶8. (SBU) Although reports indicate that Mohmand is not in a position to fully assist the IDPs, agent authorities are preparing camps in the Battaghram area of Shabqadar, and in worst case scenario, at Ekka Ghund also within lower Mohmand. ¶9. (SBU) Bilal Rehman, the youngest Member of the National Assembly and representative of Mohmand Agency, has called upon the GOP to stop the military operations near his home and to resolve the issue through dialogue. He further noted that the use of force in this fashion was not in the interest of the people or the government. (Note. As the security situation began to deteriorate Rehman told us that he had moved his family from the area and brought them to Islamabad. End note.) ¶10. (C) Comment: We are working closely with humanitarian organizations and with NWFP and FATA officials to ensure that camps and other relief efforts are ready for those displaced from Mohmand. We can expect the operation to last for some period of time, as has the Bajaur operation, and need to plan for assistance to IDPs well through the winter and into next year. Septel will lay out our assessment of expected needs. As we support UNHCR, ICRC, and other relief organizations, we continue to direct our OTI and Livelihoods programs to focus on aiding communities that have been affected by the fighting. While these efforts are curtailed from time to time because of security issues and threats, our local implementers are tenacious, and are continuing to press ahead with their programs. End comment. PATTERSON