A POWER PLAY FOR THE EMBATTLED PAKISTAN MUSLIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003655 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PK SUBJECT: A POWER PLAY FOR THE EMBATTLED PAKISTAN MUSLIM LEAGUE REF: ISLAMABAD 2940 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party have abandoned former President Pervez Musharraf and are engaged in a battle to keep the party intact and hold on to power in the face of an internal rebellion after losses in the February parliamentary elections. PML President Chaudhry Shujaat has struggled for months to corral his 54 National Assembly members and 40 Senators in the face of PML "forward block" rebels who are being wooed by both Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Asif Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif. A PML leadership showdown begins this weekend with a hastily convoked Central Working Committee meeting that Shujaat is expected to win, but the struggle to take over Musharraf's old party is just beginning -- the dissident "forward bloc" hopes to remove Shujaat by the end of the year. This may be wishful thinking, as Shujaat remains wily and powerful. A separate core party could survive without Shujaat, but his departure would likely precipitate a split in the party to benefit both Zardari and Nawaz. End summary. The Decline and ... - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) A year ago, then President Musharraf's PML party had hopes of an even three way PML, PPP, PML-N split in the February 2008 parliamentary elections. Instead, a combination of Benazir Bhutto's assassination, inflation, food shortages, and rolling blackouts combined to hand the PML a loss of nearly two-thirds of its strength in the National Assembly and its control of all four Provincial Assemblies. Party members took solace in knowing it still had 54 National Assembly and 40 Senate seats and controlled the presidency. When Musharraf was forced to resign August 18, the maneuvers of a "forward block" group who opposed PML leaders Chaudhry Shujaat and Pervaiz Elahi became stronger and more public. ¶3. (C) PPP co-chair Asif Zardari reportedly remains in negotiations with the PML to put Elahi back into power as Chief Minister of Punjab in exchange for the PML joining the central government's coalition. This would oust the PML-N from control of the Punjab and give Zardari the comfortable majority he now lacks in the National Assembly. Thus, Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif both are wooing PML forward block rebels in a similar effort to increase their respective shares of both the National and Punjab Assemblies. Musharraf Who? - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Musharraf is quietly building a house near Rawalpindi and reportedly planning a speaking engagement in the U.S. this December. He has been largely silent since resigning, re-surfacing only to deny rumors that he would return to politics. The rumors reflect both frustration with the Chaudhrys' leadership and nostalgia for the days when Pakistan's economy was booming under Musharraf's leadership. Despite pledges to the U.S. and Chief of Army Staff General Kayani that he would support a parliamentary immunity deal for Musharraf, Zardari has yet to deliver. Nawaz Sharif has made it clear he would oppose such a move; PML-N Opposition Leader Nisar Chaudhry has suggested publicly that his National Accounts Committee would be investigating Musharraf-era spending irregularities, but no serious charges against Musharraf have been filed to date. The Chaudhrys have dropped all pretense of concern about Musharraf's future. Chaudhrys vs. "Forward Bloc" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Many of the PML's national-level figures are maneuvering to either take over the party or to split from it. They swear they will more clearly define than the Chaudhrys the party's post-Musharraf ideology. After a reportedly contentious meeting November 7 between Shujaat and the "forward bloc," the party is bracing for another meeting ISLAMABAD 00003655 002 OF 002 November 22 of its 260-member Central Working Committee (CWC). The larger CWC includes the party's provincial- and district-level politicians, who are considered beholden to the Chaudhrys. To counter the CWC, "forward bloc" leader and Punjab Provincial Assembly Member Hamid Nasir Chattha has instead called for a meeting of the much smaller 30-member Central Executive Committee, which he believes will support his call for snap intra-party elections. On Their Own - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) According to stalwart PML National Assembly member (MNA) Marvi Memon, Shujaat continues to struggle to hold his party together, though none of the "forward bloc" MNAs have yet been given federal ministries or parliamentary committees for their unquestionable support of Zardari. Not even the tripling of the cabinet on November 3 resulted in even one of the dissenters coming to power, though some lobbied PPP functionaries (and the Embassy) repeatedly. Memon was certain Shujaat could have negotiated a better deal if the party's 54 MNAs had stuck together instead of trying to negotiate on their own. ¶7. (C) Zardari invited the "forward bloc" to dinner the weekend before the November 3 cabinet expansion to size up its strength. According to PML MNA Zobaida Jalal, who served as Musharraf's Education Minister, the group only numbered 17, falling short of claims that 30 PML MNAs were ready to bolt. Zardari was reportedly matter-of-fact, offering a ministry to any one of them who could claim to lead a faction of seven or more legislators; none could collect more than one or two adherents. ¶8. (C) MNA Riaz Fatyana, one of the first self-proclaimed "forward bloc" members, revealed to POLOFF that Zardari refused to reward any of them until they were safe from the Chaudhrys' ire; that would require actually taking over the PML, Fatyana added. The process would take months, but, Fatyana believed, there was sufficient dislike of the Chaudhrys to kick them out of party leadership even before Shujaat's three-year term as party president expires in August 2009. Shujaat would be given an inconsequential "leadership" title (e.g., "Patron-in-Chief") to save face, but PML Punjab President Pervaiz Elahi "must go," Fatyana insisted. A simple majority of the party's 2,000-member General Council could overthrow the Chaudhrys, according to Fatyana. But party elders failed to convince Shujaat on November 7 to step down, and he continues to hold on to power. ¶9. (C) Comment: Shujaat is trying to hold the PML intact and use its 54 Assembly votes to leverage his power; he currently is inclined to support Zardari over Nawaz Sharif. For now, the "forward bloc," a loose grouping of political freelancers, undercuts the party's numeric strength and political power. Its move to topple Shujaat will prove difficult, as there are still not enough MNAs willing to go on the record against the Chaudhrys' power. A core group could survive as a separate party without the Chaudhrys, but if/when Shujaat departs, his exit would likely precipitate a split in the party to benefit both Zardari and Nawaz. End comment. PATTERSON