FATA UPDATE - 13 NOVEMBER 2008

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003627

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF PREL PTER MOPS PK
SUBJECT: FATA UPDATE - 13 NOVEMBER 2008

REF: (A) ISLAMABAD 3348 (B) ISLAMABAD 3332 (C)
PESHAWAR 505

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Pakistani military and Frontier Corps have
made progress in clearing the main north-south corridor in
Bajaur and forces are poised to move into Mohmand Agency to
begin operations. The latest attack on the Salarzai tribe
served to underscore the need for adequate post-conflict
security so as to not undercut gains made through the
military campaign. End Summary.

PAKISTANI MILITARY STILL FIGHTING IN BAJAUR
--------------


2. (C) The Pakistani military and Frontier Corps is
continuing efforts to control the main road and secure the
main towns in Bajaur. Over the past week they have been
focusing on the area around Lowi Sam, and are hoping to move
into Nawagai (on the border between Bajaur and Mohmand
Agencies) in the coming days. Pakistani military contacts
have said that securing the main lines of communication and
the major towns of Bajaur was their goal. Clearing the
valleys which run toward the Afghan border would be left
either for the local tribes to do or for military/Frontier
Corps operations at some later date. (Comment: Some
Peshawar contacts have expressed concern that the militants
have already vacated the valleys for the mountains where the
lashkars and the military are less likely to pursue them.
End Comment.)


3. (C) Security forces have been generally successful in
clearing the main north-south corridor, and they have left
some Frontier Corps checkpoints behind, as the main force
moved south. USAID Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI)
implementers report that life is beginning to return to
normal in the Agency capital of Khar. The Political Agent is
working from his office there, and a cash-for-work project to
clean up the town began this week. However, militants retain
the ability to strike, especially in the more remote areas
(see para 4 below, on the recent attack on a Salarzai tribal
jirga November 6.)


SOME SETBACKS ON THE SECURITY FRONT
--------------


4. (S) The Salarzai tribe, which was one of the first to
raise a lashkar (tribal militia) against militants, suffered
a serious blow November 6. A tribal jirga called to discuss
plans for combating militants in the area was attacked and
more than 20 people were killed, including several of the
tribe's senior leaders (Ref C). There were conflicting
reports from the FATA Secretariat and the Frontier Corps on
whether the attack was the result of a suicide bomber or a
remote-controlled device -- a tactic not frequently seen in
Pakistan. (Note - most attacks have been either individuals
wearing suicide vests or vehicle borne improvised explosive
devices (VBIEDs). End note). Someone purporting to
represent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility.


5. (SBU) Separately, press reports that the local
administration of Orakzai Agency has made a deal and freed
four of Baitullah Mehsud's men (Maulvi Rafiuddin and three
others) on November 5 in exchange for ten security personnel
who had been kidnapped. The arrest of the four in July was
met with retaliation from taliban militants, who initially
besieged the police station, and then kidnapped a number of
civilians and security personnel, including police recruits.
Three of those kidnapped were executed, and the taliban
continued to demand the release of Rafiuddin. When a
one-week deadline was not met, they killed two police
recruits; shortly thereafter the local government agreed to
release the four militants.


TAKING THE FIGHT TO MOHMAND SOON?
--------------


6. (S) Frontier Corps Commander Major General Tariq Khan has
regularly briefed U.S. officials that his immediate objective

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would be to clear the main arteries of Bajaur, and then move
to Mohmand Agency, if necessary. First, he said, he would
give the local tribes the opportunity to take action on their
own. If that was not successful, he would move the Frontier
Corps into the Agency. Pakistani officials now tell us the
Mohmand operation will begin in the next four to five days,
as soon as an additional 900 troops arrive.


7. (S) Military contacts say they plan a different approach
from that used in Bajaur, which was a very heavy-handed
operation which relied on aerial bombing sorties and tanks
rolling through villages. In the village of Lowi Sam, where
an extensive tunnel system was found, Pakistani security
forces razed every house connected to a tunnel, resulting in
the destruction of perhaps eighty percent of the buildings in
the town.


8. (S) In Mohmand, the Pakistani military hopes to do cordon
and search operations based on intelligence, and targeting
known and suspected insurgent locations. Their plan involves
moving simultaneously from north and south, in order to limit
insurgents' ability to escape. The Pakistani Military has
sought cooperation from U.S. forces in Afghanistan to ensure
militants are not able to relocate to sites across the
border.


9. (U) On November 4-5, authorities dropped leaflets in
areas of Mohmand Agency adjacent to Peshawar calling on the
people to follow the example of tribes in Bajaur, Darra Adam
Khel, and Orakzai and raise lashkars against the militants.
Press reports that a curfew has been imposed and all
government and educational institutions have been closed, and
the main road between Mohmand and Bajaur has been closed. The
press also reports that people have interpreted the leaflets
to mean that military action is imminent, and they are
beginning to move out of the Agency. Embassy is currently
working to assess how many people may be leaving, and where
they are going.


10. (SBU) Militants may be trying to get out ahead of the
military action. Press reports that on November 7, they
attacked several police and Frontier Corps posts and have
destroyed two bridges. An OTI team in the area confirms
reports of attacks on the police checkpoint at the
Pandali-Ghalanai road intersection and the destruction of at
least one bridge, as well as the imposition of a curfew.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) The persistence of the Pakistani military and the
Frontier Corps, signaled by their plan to continue into
Mohmand, is encouraging -- as is their apparent willingness
to adjust tactics to better achieve their goal of defeating
militants while not alienating the local populace. That
said, there is still a way to go on civil-military planning
and a coherent public information strategy. The leaflet drop
in Mohmand does not appear to have been coordinated with any
of the agencies providing aid for IDPs. And although camp
management and provision of assistance to those staying with
families have improved, aid agencies are likely to be caught
playing catch-up if large numbers of people begin to move out
of Mohmand.


12. (C) The Pakistani military engagement in Mohmand will be
an important criteria for measuring the commitment of
Islamabad to fighting the militants. Equally important will
be the reaction of the tribes to the predictable retaliation
from militants. We remain concerned that neither the
Frontier Corps nor the local administrations have forces
sufficiently manned and trained to execute the "hold" piece
of a "clear, hold, and build" strategy. The decision by the
local administration in Orakzai to release militants this
week likely reflects a lack of confidence in the Pakistani
government's ability to defend the tribes over the long term.
No one has been held to account for the October 7 attack on
a jirga assembled in Orakzai to discuss raising a lashkar
against militants; over 100 people were killed. And a
Frontier Corps attempt to rescue some of those kidnapped
after Maulvi Rafiuddin was arrested failed -- and resulted in
13 FC being killed in action.


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13. (C) The latest attack on the Salarzai tribe in early
November demands a government response, to signal to the
population throughout the FATA that they are not being asked
to take on the militants alone. We will be stressing to GoP
interlocutors the importance of quickly investigating these
attacks and bringing those responsible to justice. We are
attempting, through our supplemental request and the
refocusing of some of our assistance funding, to improve the
ability of local law enforcement agencies to ensure adequate
security, as military operations conclude. But these efforts
will take time to bear fruit, and there is a high risk in the
interim that the militants will be able to undercut gains
made in the military campaign, and tip the balance back in
their favor.
PATTERSON