PROTESTS ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF MUSHARRAF'S STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003463

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PK
SUBJECT: PROTESTS ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF MUSHARRAF'S STATE
OF EMERGENCY

REF: A. 07 ISLAMABAD 4691

B. 07 KARACHI 728

C. 07 ISLAMABAD 3929

Classified By: DCM Jerry Feierstein for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Lawyers commemorated the November 3
anniversary of last year's State of Emergency (SOE),
demonstrating in front of bar association offices and court
houses across the country. They blasted the current
government for reinstating only some of the judges removed by
former President Musharraf. As many as 6,000 lawyers (and a
few opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders)
gathered in Rawalpindi to hear former Supreme Court Chief
Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry explain how Musharraf's
administration allegedly tried to pressure the court over a
steel privatization case that benefited then Prime Minister
Aziz. Today's events cap a month of commemorations. On
October 18, the Sindh provincial government, controlled by
the Pakistan People's Party (PPP),revived the investigation
into last year's assassination attempt of Benazir Bhutto in
Karachi, which injured or killed hundreds. The PML-N
anointed October 12 as "Defense of Democracy Day," the ninth
anniversary of the coup that brought Musharraf to power.


2. (C) Summary continued: Pakistan has undergone a sea change
since last November 3. All those arrested during the SOE are
free, most of the fired judges are restored, and media
restrictions imposed during the SOE have been lifted.
Musharraf is largely irrelevant, and the civilian government
that replaced him has begun serious militant operations
against extremists in the tribal areas. Despite today's
protests, the civil society movement of lawyers that led the
charge against Musharraf allowed itself to be politicized,
and has failed to ignite a public concerned more about rising
food inflation and energy shortages than the fate of the
former Chief Justice. End summary.

November 3: Musharraf Declares State of Emergency
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3. (SBU) Throughout the country in Pakistan's major cities,
lawyers gathered today to protest then President Musharraf's
decision to declare a State of Emergency (SOE),abrogate the
constitution, and fire Pakistan's judiciary en masse (ref A).
The largest demonstration by far was in
Rawalpindi-Islamabad, where as many as 6,000 lawyers
gathered, joined by opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) parliamentary leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan and
representatives of religious party Jamiat Islami (JI) and
civil society organizations.


4. (SBU) Addressing the crowd, former Supreme Court Chief
Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry pressed his case to be restored to
the bench, saying he hoped parliament would not de facto
validate martial law, as he termed last year's SOE. "The
people want rule of law and an independent judiciary,"
Chaudhry stated. He also claimed that he was removed from
the bench because of his suo moto ruling against the Pakistan
Steel Mills privatization scheme, which embarrassed former
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, Chaudhry surmised. Chaudhry
claimed he had refused Musharraf's intervention, but many
believed this was the reason Musharraf suspended Chaudhry
from the bench the first time. Chaudhry today insisted that,
after his July 2007 reinstatement, he had kept himself off
the panel reviewing Musharraf's re-election eligibility. In
reality, Chaudhry chose the judges, whom Musharraf feared
would rule against him; that fear promoted Musharraf to
pre-empt the judiciary with a declaration of emergency on
November 3.


5. (SBU) Current Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA)
President Ali Ahmad Kurd fired up the massed lawyers,
proclaiming: "Because of you, Musharraf is gone." He
promised to re-invigorate the lawyers' movement and press the
pre-November 3 judiciary's case yet again, though no details
of next steps were given. SCBA ex oficio president Aitzaz
Ahsan added that Law Minister Farooq Naek's "re-appointment"
of only some of the deposed judges, selected by the PPP-led
GOP, was "unacceptable."


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October 18: Bhutto's Return and Assassination Attempt
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6. (C) A year ago on October 18, Pakistan People's Party
(PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto triumphantly returned to Karachi
after over eight years of self-imposed exile. In memory of
the 402 injured and 146 killed in the dual bombing of
Bhutto's motorcade (ref B),the PPP-led Sindh government
instigated this October a second charge sheet (termed a first
information report (FIR)). The new FIR specifically named
former Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi, former
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Hamid Gul,
and former Intelligence Bureau (IB) Director General Ijaz
Shah as conspirators in the October 18 attack. (Note: Bhutto
had blamed these three in a letter written in the days after
her return, but the original FIR referenced only "unknown"
planners and attackers instead. Reportedly, the idea of also
naming former Musharraf in this new FIR was rejected.)


7. (C) According to Investigator In Charge Sohail Chatha,
speaking to PolOff October 22, Bahadarabad (Karachi) Police
soon after the one-year anniversary requested further
instructions from the Sindh government and have since started
the investigation into the assassination attempt. Sindh Home
Minister Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza chaired a high level meeting of
police officials on the case, ordering the increase of reward
money. All three named men are supposed to be interviewed.
(Note: Though Gul publicly offered to appear before court,
the chances that any of these men will be interviewed is
unlikely.) Chatha further noted that the new FIR supersedes
the original and annuls the related investigation.


8. (SBU) Crying "political victimization," Elahi's Pakistan
Muslim League (PML) walked out of the October 20 joint
in-camera session of parliament to protest the new FIR. "The
registration of a new FIR reflects dishonesty," added PML
Senate leader Kamil Ali Agha. Reportedly, Prime Minister
Yousuf Gilani, at President Asif Zardari's behest, personally
assured Elahi that his name would not be included in the new
FIR nor would he be otherwise implicated in the case. The
GOP did not get the public traction it may have hoped for;
instead, the press labeled the effort as a distraction from
the country's economic and security concerns. The
possibility of a U.N. investigation into Bhutto's December 27
assassination is still under consideration. The issue has
failed to spark much domestic fervor, though at every public
setting, PPP leaders ensure that a portrait of Bhutto (and
sometimes of heir apparent Bilawal) is in the frame.

October 12: Nawaz Overthrown
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9. (SBU) This October 12, Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N)
leader Nawaz Sharif declared the nine-year anniversary of the
Musharraf-led coup against him as "Defense of Democracy Day"
(ref C). In his speech, Nawaz urged the government to open a
dialogue with militants, encouraged the National Assembly to
compel Musharraf to testify about constitutional abuses, and
attributed the country's economic and security crises on the
"slackness and sluggishness" of President Asif Zardari to
restore the pre-November 3 judiciary. Nawaz said his now
opposition party was in no position to prevent these crises.
He called on the PPP to seek the PML-N's support for a
"national policy" to solve the country's mounting problems,
adding that the full parliament was supreme and should be
taken into confidence on issues of national importance.


10. (SBU) Most of Sharif's address, however, was a charge
sheet against Musharraf, who had, according to Sharif,
undermined Pakistan's 1973 Constitution, removed a legitimate
judiciary, including former Supreme Court Chief Justice
Iftikhar Chaudhry, and allegedly made secret deals with the
U.S. in the fight against terrorism. Sharif disavowed any
pledge to indemnify Musharraf, adding that any government
which did so would regret it. He further added the names of
Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, and Zia ul Haq to Musharraf's as
"dictators who had compromised national interests just to
prolong their illegal rule."

Looking Forward
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11. (C) Comment: Pakistan has undergone a sea change since
last November. President-General Musharraf, who dominated
life in Pakistan for over eight years, is now irrelevant. He
is quietly building a home in the Islamabad suburbs and says
he has no intention of re-entering public life, at least not
now. Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party has all
but forgotten him in its quest to maneuver back into the
federal and Punjab provincial governments. The Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) also appears to have forgotten its
pledge to give Musharraf an indemnity package; PML-N's Sharif
has now said publicly that he will oppose any such deal.


12. (C) Everyone arrested during the 2007 state of emergency
(SOE) is free, and, of the 13 Supreme Court justices fired by
Musharraf, the PPP-led government has cleverly "re-appointed"
five, three more retired or resigned, and five remain
unrestored. Former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry continues
to give speeches and accept international awards, but the PPP
has made it clear he will not be reinstated as Chief Justice.
The lawyers' movement that began with an inspiring
demonstration of civil society strength has fizzled, largely
because Aitzaz Ahsan allowed it to become politicized and the
public is focused on food inflation and energy shortages.
End comment.

PATTERSON