FATA UPDATE - 24 OCTOBER 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003419 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018 TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER PREL MOPS PK SUBJECT: FATA UPDATE - 24 OCTOBER 2008 REF: A. A) ISLAMABAD 3348 ¶B. B) ISLAMABAD 3332 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Pakistani military operations in Bajaur continue, but Inspector General Frontier Corps MG Tariq Khan says his forces are making good progress. They have cleared most of the main towns and the main road, and say they have taken the town of Lowi Sam, although attacks by militants continue. USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) has managed to open an office in Khar, Bajaur's main town, with the strong support of the Political Agent. However, the security situation has not yet allowed distribution of relief items to begin in earnest. There are encouraging signs in other agencies in the FATA. With the military's progress in Bajaur, and some opening by local political leaders to government help, we may have the opportunity to assist the Pakistanis in a more robust way. Septel will lay out Embassy's most recent assessment of needs across the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) through the winter. End Summary. SOME PROGRESS IN BAJAUR -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Pakistani military operations continue in Bajaur Agency in the FATA, as well as in Swat district in NWFP. Inspector General of the Frontier Corps Major General Tariq Khan told the press October 25 that security forces are now in control of most of the main areas of Bajaur, including the town of Lowi Sam (near the border with Mohmand Agency, another militant stronghold). However, sporadic attacks by militants around Lowi Sam continue. The Pakistani Army claims to have regained control of the Peshawar-Bajaur road by establishing a series of checkpoints and bunkers along the way. ¶3. (SBU) Tariq Khan has been quoted variously as saying operations would continue for another few weeks to another few months. Aid agencies are expecting the security situation to remain unsettled for some time to come, and are making preparations to care for IDPs through the winter. Both in recent meetings with various visiting USG delegations and in the press, Tariq Khan has complained of Taliban militants infiltrating across the border from Afghanistan -- perhaps 200 Afghan militants entering Bajaur Agency every two to three days, he says. ¶4. (C) USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI),�00A;through its FATA Transition Initiatives (FTI) program, has been able to get a team into Khar, the capital of Bajaur. The Political Agent has been extremely supportive, providing office and warehouse space and facilitating contacts between FTI and Bajaur community leaders. To demonstrate that the situation is returning to normal, he recently traveled on foot from his compound to the FTI offices. That said, security remains a serious problem; a cash-for-work program that had recently begun was stopped the week of Oct. 20 for security reasons. ¶5. (SBU) FTI has 1500 kits of non-food items ready for distribution, and AID's regular development program is prepared to come in behind with more supplies. In addition, once security permits, FTI staff are prepared to go to the Salarzai area of Bajaur, which borders Konar province in Afghanistan and is the home of one of the larger tribes, to explore delivering aid and cash-for-work programs there as well as in the central districts. ¶6. (C) Separately, the Civil Military Support Element (CMSE),as part of its support for the Frontier Corps (FC), has provided USD 70,000 in women's and children's clothing, blankets, cold weather shawls, and shoes in women's and children's sizes to the FC for distribution to those displaced or affected by the fighting. The Sector Commander, Bajaur Scouts, and the Political Agent coordinated the distribution of these supplies to some of the poorest affected families in Salarzai and Utmankhel tehsils of Bajaur Agency. ISLAMABAD 00003419 002 OF 002 SOME HOPEFUL SIGNS IN OTHER AGENCIES -------------- ¶7. (C) Elsewhere in the FATA, there have been a few encouraging signs. Ref B discussed the formation of lashkars in some of the tribal Agencies, as well as retaliation from militants in several areas, including Orazkai, where a suicide bomber attacked a tribal gathering, reportedly killing at least 100 people. Local observers report the Ali Khel tribe in Orakzai has decided to expel those accused of responsibility for the bombing and/or of harboring taliban. Families, mostly women and children, are reportedly vacating the area as a result. One contact thought that about 500 families may have moved, although we do not have any confirmation of numbers. ¶8. (C) In South Waziristan, an FTI field team was able to travel to Wana, where they met with the political administration and tribal elders. The Political Agent welcomed the team and said he was open to starting some projects in the Agency, including in Angoor Ada and Tuyi; however, tribal elders made clear they would not tolerate the presence of NGOs in the Agency. The field team will produce several proposals and plans to return for further discussions. ¶9. (SBU) The FTI program has been encouraging closer coordination between political administrations and communities. In Frontier Region Peshawar, the Assistant Political Agent and tribal elders have signed a security coordination agreement providing for community members to work with khassadars (local security forces reporting to the Political Agent) to patrol their areas and establish checkpoints. While not clear how long this initiative will last, early reports are that it has reduced militant activity to some extent. OUTREACH EFFORTS -------------- ¶10. (C) Prior to the August attack on the Principal Officer in Peshawar and the September bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, the Embassy and Consulate Peshawar conducted several briefings for various GOP and provincial government personnel on USG assistance activities in the FATA and NWFP. Nevertheless, a perception exists, both at the national and provincial level, that the USG has been slow to act. Embassy will resume briefings, both at the local level and for senior officials, including the National Security Advisor and President Zardari, with an initial focus on what the USG is doing on the Bajaur IDP situation. In addition, OTI will continue to assist the provincial and local governments within the FATA and NWFP with preparing press releases when various projects end or major steps in relief efforts are taken. (Note. OTI reports that they have assisted with approximately 250 press releases for local press. However, OTI notes that little initiative exists on the Pakistani side to prepare or release these press statements on their own. End Note) COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Small victories, like the formation of lashkars in some Agencies and the openings to local government assistance in Bajaur and South Waziristan, are POSITIVE signs. Likewise, the determination of both the military and, so far, the civilian government, to stick with the fight against the militants are encouraging. Still, there is a long way to go. Efforts to provide humanitarian assistance in Bajaur are still stymied by security threats, and despite FC claims to have taken Lowi Sam, some fighting continues there. We judge that the various insurgent groups, including Al Qaeda, will fight hard for the safe haven they have enjoyed in the FATA until now. Embassy is making a fresh assessment of the needs, given the possible opening in Bajaur, as well as expectations IDPs will remain displaced throughout the winter. Septel will recommend next steps and additional funding. PATTERSON PATTERSON