POLITICAL PARTIES ACCEPT ELECTION POSTPONEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000033

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTIES ACCEPT ELECTION POSTPONEMENT

REF: ISLAMABAD 0009

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Opposition reaction to the postponement of
general elections to February 18 was swift but measured.
Most interlocutors confirmed that their parties were not
consulted by Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) and
expressed suspicions that the delay was for political rather
than the logistical reasons quoted by the ECP. However, all
opposition parties echoed the immediate reaction by the
Pakistan People's Party (PPP). The PPP condemned the
postponement, but added that it would still contest the
election. No party called for violent protests. We should
now concentrate on ensuring that the GOP holds free and fair
elections and on convincing the international monitors to
return. End summary.

The Announcement
--------------


2. (U) Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) announced
yesterday that the January 8 general elections would be
postponed to February 18 (reftel). As reasons for the delay,
the ECP specifically cited the destruction of several of
their Sindh offices and the delay in printing ballots because
of "shuttered" businesses in Karachi.


3. (U) President Pervez Musharraf spoke to the nation late
January 2, emphasizing that this postponement decision was
made by the ECP because of these logistical reasons. He
called on all political parties to cooperate and to accept
the decision. Contrary to his previous statements, Musharraf
also stated that Pakistan's Army would be deployed in
sensitive areas, especially in Sindh, through the elections.
He added that the Army's presence would ensure a "peaceful"
February 18 election, as well as one that was "free, fair and
transparent."

PPP Pre-positioned
--------------


4. (C) Based on earlier conversations with the GOP (reftel),
the ECP's decision was no surprise to Asif Zardari,
Co-Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Zardari
had called a PPP Central Executive Committee meeting in
Naudero (Larkana) January 2 to discuss the implications of a
delay and how the PPP should react.


5. (C) The PPP "condemned" the postponement, but also said
that it would still take part in the February 18 contest.
Zardari added that, if the PPP feels elections are rigged,
the consequences would be "borne by the rulers." Zardari did
not threaten pre-election demonstrations, though other PPP
figures said protests were possible.


6. (SBU) At the January 2 Naudero press conference, Zardari
also demanded a Hariri-style UN investigation into Bhutto's
assassination. He informed the press that Bhutto's "chehlum"
(40th day memorial) would be observed on February 7.

PML-N, Others Defer to PPP
--------------


7. (SBU) The other main opposition party, Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N),had little choice but to defer to the
PPP's reaction. PML-N leadership confirmed that they, too,
would contest the February 18 elections. Nawaz Sharif added
the demand that Musharraf resign, while party spokesman Ahsan
Iqbal hoped the various opposition groups could agree on a
more forceful, joint response to the election delay.


8. (C) PML-N interlocutors echoed PPP members who believe the
postponement is at the behest of the ruling Pakistan Muslim
League (PML),who they believe fear both a pro-PPP sympathy
vote and an enhanced anti-establishment/Musharraf vote.
PML-Q Spokesman Tariq Azim dismissed such claims by the
opposition, saying that "a delay of a few weeks is quite
understandable."


9. (C) Most of the other, smaller opposition parties took
similar lines as the PPP and PML-N. Only Jamiat
Ulema-e-Islam's (JUI-F) Fazlur Rehman, which is prepared to

ISLAMABAD 00000033 002 OF 002


ally with the PML, said his party "would follow the decision
of the Election Commission."


10. (C) Comment: All the parties so far have avoided calls
for a violent reaction, and this should allow the law and
order situation to improve, especially in Sindh. In
anticipation of a much tighter electoral race, however, we
expect political rhetoric will heat up considerably in the
coming weeks. We should encourage a return of international
monitors to deter electoral irregularities. End comment.

PATTERSON