FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 000327 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER ECON PK SUBJECT: FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES ELECTION DELAY Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During a courtesy call on former Punjab Chief Minister and Punjab Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leader Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi on Thursday January 17 by CDA, Elahi dismissed this week's speculation of establishing a new national consensus government and postponement of elections as a desperate ploy initiated by the Sharif brothers. He added it was never under serious consideration by President Musharraf or the PML leadership. He also predicted the PML will win a plurality of seats in next month's elections and conceded that the next government will be confronted with a number of economic challenges. Finally Elahi agreed to share information about a recent security incident in Sarghoda with the USG. End summary. ¶2. (C) According to Elahi, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders and brothers Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif initiated contact with Brig (ret) Niaz Ahmad to establish a national consensus government and delay elections, perhaps in order to buy more time to organize their party to ensure a better electoral performance. Elahi stated Musharraf personally told him he had nothing to do with initiating such contact and did not support those measures. Elahi said it would be a disaster for Pakistan to delay elections beyond February 18 since it would only serve to destabilize the already tense political situation. He reiterated that he has consistently encouraged Musharraf to hold elections and that his position has not changed. ¶3. (C) Elahi confidently predicted the PML would garner a plurality of more than 100 seats in the National Assembly and take a majority of seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly. He stated the PML has a proud record of development in Punjab province and that each of his candidates is campaigning in their respective electoral districts with detailed information on development projects down to the union council level. In addition, he stated the PPP's sympathy vote in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination is not great enough to swing any particular election in Punjab province. Finally he stated the polls that predict a PML drubbing in the upcoming elections are not accurate since it is difficult to effectively poll in the rural areas of the country. ¶4. (C) Elahi stated he is taking personal security cautions and had recently cancelled two scheduled public appearances. He pointed out that his security detail found explosives hidden in a water cooler at a recent campaign rally in Sarghoda. His INTELLIGENCE sources also said militants planned to hide explosives in milk cans as well. Upon the CDA's request, he promised to put his security experts in contact with USG law enforcement to provide details on the explosive devices found. ¶5. (C) The former Chief Minister also stated the next government will need to take bold decisions and take political hits to resolve the serious economic problems emanating from fuel subsidies, electricity load shedding, natural gas load shedding and the wheat shortage. He noted that the general population can not have everything subsidized and that the new government would have to wean the voters from the significant government subsidies on consumer goods. He acknowledged this would be a tough sell. He went on to admit, however, that he has asked the caretaker government and Musharraf not to act until after the elections. ¶6. (C) Comment: At this point the issue of a national consensus government, whatever its genesis, is moot. Pervaiz Elahi and his party's chances in the Punjab, however, may be in greater doubt than he claims. The PPP sympathy vote still seems to be a very potent factor, and Elahi's ties to the decreasingly popular Musharraf continue to dim his party's chances at the polls. Finally, should he find himself in power after February 18, we find it hard to believe that Pervaiz Elahi will have the political backbone to tackle the serious economic issues that not one of his predecessors has dared take on. End comment. PATTERSON