FATA UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003068 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018 TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER PREL PHUM MOPS PK SUBJECT: FATA UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2008 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Military operations continue in Bajaur Agency, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) continue to move in and out as the situation evolves. International organizations and NGOs are providing aid outside the Agency, but local Pakistani government (GoP) authorities still recommend holding off on trying to conduct relief efforts in Bajaur until the security situation settles. GoP authorities are beginning to conduct regular coordination meetings at the local level; we are still working with officials in the capital to encourage coordination and forward planning, especially as they consider what military operations might be necessary in the near future. On the political front, the Law Minister told Ambassador he is looking at possible changes to the Frontier Crimes Regulation, including perhaps diluting the collective punishment provisions and providing for at least limited right of appeal of Political Agents' decisions. End Summary. SITUATION IN BAJAUR -------------- ¶2. (C) Military operations continue, including aerial bombing sorties. On Tuesday, September 9, Pakistani Army and Frontier Corps launched ground operations, which are still ongoing. Senior military officials have told us their primary focus is to clear and hold main population centers and transportation routes. Ground forces are moving from Torghundai (along Bajaur's northeast border with Dir) through Khar and toward Loesam and Nawagai in the south. Chief of Army Staff General Kayani stated as of September 17, the Army had reasserted control over the Agency's capital, Khar, however we are not sure if this is accurate. It was also not clear whether they had re-taken Loesam. ¶3. (SBU) The IDP situation remains essentially unchanged: most of the camps in Lower Dir have been closed, though some small facilities there and around Peshawar remain open. Bajaur residents continue to move back and forth out of the province as military operations allow. Bajaur Member of the National Assembly (MNA) Shaukat Ullah told Emboffs on September 12 that many residents remained outside the province, some as far away as Rawalpindi and Karachi. Of the IDPs who had returned to Bajaur, Shaukat predicted that they would again leave the Agency within days, most likely filling up the closed camps. (Note: We have seen some evidence of that, with about 500 families moving out in recent days. End Note.) ¶4. (SBU) Shaukat said that both IDPs and host families were suffering, but agreed it was difficult to find a way to reach the people inside Bajaur with humanitarian supplies. He expected that the Pakistani Army would manage to pacify main population centers in a few days, but that most residents would likely return to their homes around the time of Eid (around October 2-3). Shaukat recommended addressing immediate relief efforts to IDPs outside of Bajaur. Once people returned home, he expected the main needs would be supplies for reconstructing homes and small infrastructure, and thought basic relief items and cash for work programs would be useful. ¶5. (SBU) USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (USAID/OTI) is prepared to deliver basic non-food items in lower Dir and to begin reconstruction activities as soon as political authorities give the go-ahead for entry into the agency. Shaukat suggested OTI be prepared to set up in one of the main towns not far from the border with Dir and administer efforts from there. He said that local officials knew how to reach affected populations once they returned and he believed their systems - through the Political Agent (PA), tehsildars and union bands -- would be generally accurate and form a good basis for parceling out assistance. ICRC WORKING IN BAJAUR, SWAT, AND KURRAM -------------- ¶6. (SBU) ICRC Deputy Head of Delegation Magne Barth called on DCM September 12 to discuss the humanitarian response both in Bajaur and in Swat, where military operations have been ISLAMABAD 00003068 002 OF 003 ongoing for several months. ICRC has been delivering aid both in camps and to families hosting IDPs in both areas. He said ICRC has had no trouble accessing areas in Dir (where Bajaur IDPs initially fled),but said the fighting in Swat had intensified so that ICRC had to move out for security reasons. Barth said the humanitarian situation there was serious, though less visible because IDPs have generally remained in the Swat valley, moving around to avoid areas where fighting was occurring rather than leaving. While not associated directly with battling insurgents, Barth said ICRC is increasingly concerned about the situation in Kurram Agency, where inter-tribal fighting has been going on for more than a year. The main road has been blocked for nine months, and while ICRC has been able to get some supplies in through Afghanistan, they are now looking at the possibilities for supply by air. ¶7. (SBU) Barth recounted the same problems of lack of coordination on the Pakistani side that we have been seeing. Notwithstanding the existence of a semi-regular coordination meeting in Peshawar, ICRC is frustrated by a lack of communication from the Pakistani government overall, especially on helping to plan for future needs. They are particularly anxious to learn where the military might be going next, so that they can prepare for the expected dislocation of civilian populations. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) One of the underlying problems in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is its separate administrative status, with political parties banned, and the 1901 Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) as the law of the land. Ambassador was told by the Law Minister that they are planning to give President Zardari a re-write of the FCR (possibly doing away with some of the collective punishment elements and providing a way to appeal decisions of the Political Agents). They are also considering issuing an executive order to allow political parties to operate in the FATA. (Comment: The extension of the Political Parties Act into the FATA has been anticipated for at least several years but has never moved forward. It is long over-due and would give the mainstream secular parties an opportunity to compete for support on an even par with religious-based parties whose activities in the agencies are not restricted. End Comment.) The Minister has another meeting scheduled on these issues in early October. DETERIORATING SECURITY SITUATION ACROSS FATA -------------- ¶9. (C) The security situation across the FATA and into NWFP continues to be difficult. FATA Transition Initiative (FTI) personnel report increasing accounts of Taliban present in formerly safe areas, including around Landi Kotal in Khyber Agency and in Jamrud Agency, close to the Khyber Gate. In both Kurram and Mohmand, government offices are nearly empty. The Bajaur MNA we met September 12 told us he had not been to his Agency since last February because of fears for his safety. He also declined to be involved in any efforts to distribute humanitarian assistance, notwithstanding the opportunity this would provide for him to be seen responding to his constituents' requests for help. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Embassy has been focusing its efforts over the past several weeks on Bajaur Agency because the combination of Pakistani military operations and the heavy presence of insurgents who are active in Afghanistan make this a good opportunity to show the Pakistani government how COIN operations can work. However, it is worth noting that heavy fighting is occurring across several agencies (notably Bajaur, Swat, Kurram, and increasingly in Mohmand),taxing the Pakistani military's capacity to respond, and diminishing the population's confidence in the government's ability to exercise control throughout the entire country. We are encouraged that the new Zardari government understands the seriousness of the threat, and appears to be committed to ISLAMABAD 00003068 003 OF 003 addressing the problem. A decision to change the antiquated administrative status of the FATA would be another good sign that the GoP is looking for a long-term solution to the problems in the FATA. PATTERSON