KASHMIR LINE OF CONTROL VIOLATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002381 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2018 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: KASHMIR LINE OF CONTROL VIOLATIONS REF: NEW DELHI 1934 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Pakistani MFA sources confirm reports from New Delhi (reftel) that neither country wanted recent violations of the Kashmiri Line of Control (LOC) to impede bilateral confidence building measures (CBMs). However, the Indians reportedly have just canceled the next round of CBM talks scheduled for July 18 in Islamabad. FM Qureshi still is scheduled to visit New Delhi July 21-22 to start the fifth round of the Composite Dialogue. However, of the eleven LOC incidents over the past five years, seven have occurred since mid-May 2008. Afghan and Indian accusations of Pakistani complicity in the July bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul and continued Pakistani suspicion over Indian activities in Afghanistan threaten to undermine progress in improving Indo-Pak ties. Post recommends that Washington send both Islamabad and New Delhi a message recommending they reschedule the CBM talks and tone down unhelpful rhetoric. End Summary. LOC Violation -------------- ¶2. (C) Polcouns met July 11 with MFA South Asia Director General Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhary, who expressed concern about the rising number of incidents across the LOC but confirmed that Islamabad did not want these incidents to interfere with continued Indo-Pak dialogue. Chaudhary characterized the July 10 incident as an Indian violation of the LOC cease-fire but reported that brigade commanders from both sides planned to address the incident at flag officer level in coming days. He contested India's claims that Indian forces targeted militants and reasoned the geography, fencing, and time (daylight hours) posed too high a challenge for any infiltrating militants. Chaudhary noted both sides implemented the same type of flag level officer meeting following the June 19 LOC incident in which 4 Pakistani soldiers died. According to Chaudhary, Indian forces both times took hours to answer Pakistani calls using the local hotline set up to cope with such incidents. ¶3. (C) There have been eleven violations of the LOC in the past five years, but seven of them have occurred since mid-May 2008. Both countries have accused each other of initiating the attacks, although explanations of what occurred often remain murky. Indian Embassy Bombing -------------- ¶4. (C) Chaudhary expressed appreciation for USG remarks that suggested extremists were responsible for the July 7 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. He also said Islamabad appreciated the initial Indian refusal to speculate on who was responsible for the attack. Prime Minister Gilani condemned the embassy attack, denied Pakistan's involvement, and added Pakistan had nothing to gain from destabilizing Afghanistan. In his United Nations General Assembly speech July 10, PM Qureshi joined in the condemnation and called for Pakistan and Afghanistan to increase cooperation on terrorism issues. CBM Talks Rescheduled -------------- ¶5. (C) Commenting on press reports about India's decision to postpone CBMs scheduled for Islamabad July 10, Chaudhary explained it was only an administrative decision. His Indian counterpart had called to request a postpone because he had to travel to Kabul to deal with the Embassy bombing. The talks had been rescheduled for July 18 in Islamabad, but there are press reports that say the Indians have now cancelled the visit. Composite Dialogue -------------- ¶6. (C) Chaudhary confirmed that PM Qureshi will visit New Delhi July 21-22 to initiate the fifth round of the Composite Dialogue. Qureshi will press for achievable progress in visa ISLAMABAD 00002381 002 OF 002 liberalization and trade promotion, particularly an expansion of the Wagah customs house to increase the number of Pakistani trucks that can be processed at the site and an agreement to change the approved commodities trade list from a "positive" to a "negative" list of goods. Chaudhary believed the two sides were close to an agreement on Siachen and Sir Creek, but questioned whether progress was possible given the domestic political situation in India. ¶7. (C) Comment: Given this cancellation and a growing list of disputes that could impede improved Indo-Pak relations, post recommends that Washington send both Islamabad and New Delhi a message recommending they reschedule the CBM talks and calm down unhelpful rhetoric PATTERSON