FISSURES IN THE PPP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002353 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: FISSURES IN THE PPP REF: A. ISLAMABAD 1034 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 587 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 505 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A split in the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is not imminent. However, led by estranged party Vice Chair Amin Faheem and disgruntled Bhutto family members, fissures in the PPP have begun to emerge publicly. PPP Co-Chair Asif Zardari is widely disliked for reasons that range from class snobbery to complaints political spoils are going to his cronies. Zardari's continued refusal to support Musharraf's impeachment and his insistence on restoring the judiciary only without the former Chief Justice hurt the PPP at the polls during the June by-elections. If Nawaz Sharif pulls out of the coalition, PPP rank and file fear that Zardari will be forced to ally with unpalatable partners, including Musharraf's party, to stay in power. Zardari needs to return to Pakistan and shore up his base. If he succeeds, rumors of a PPP split will quickly fade away. End summary. Breaking the Silence - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On June 29, estranged Pakistan People's Party (PPP) senior Vice Chairman Makhdoom Amin Faheem publicly distanced himself from the GOP's plans to raise commodities' prices and to restore the deposed judiciary through a constitutional amendments package. He said the GOP -- led by "Zardari's party" -- was distracted from the "real issues" faced by the Pakistani people. Faheem implied that Zardari was "power hungry," called ministers "opportunists and deserters," and derided Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's 100-day program as "verbosity." ¶3. (C) Faheem's comments marked the first time since he was passed over for the premiership in March that he so publicly took issue with the party he still officially helps lead. Faheem told Ambassador June 19 that the old guard -- those who had been with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and had seen the party through Benazir's self-imposed exile -- were being ignored; Zardari cronies were getting the jobs that should have gone to Benazir stalwarts. Faheem insisted that he would not attempt to break-up the party, though Faheem loyalists have since warned of an inevitable split. ¶4. (C) Many PPP contacts blame Zardari's continuing refusal to support Musharraf's impeachment and his insistence to restore the deposed judiciary but without former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry as costing the PPP in the June by-elections. Zardari's decision that PPP federal ministers forfeit party leadership jobs has also weakened party structures, particularly in the Punjab, where the party continues to lose ground to Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N). Not Just Faheem - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) In both Punjab and Sindh, high-level PPP contacts note, there is visceral dislike of Zardari. Faheem's remarks followed criticism of Zardari from Benazir's private secretary, who is credited with holding the PPP together during Benazir's exile years. Sindhi feudal clans consider the Zardaris of a lower caste. On July 5, Sasui and Fatima Bhutto, daughters of Zulfikar's only two sons, publicly called on longtime family friends to help "reorganize the party." The name of Zulfikar's brother, Mumtaz, was floated as a possible party leader. Mending Fences? - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Zardari loyalists claimed PPP leadership was aware of the general discontent within the ranks. Zardari would use the summer months to meet with elected officials and party workers, they said, noting that the federal cabinet had been left deliberately small to allow for later "accommodations." Challengers to Zardari, like Faheem, would find themselves isolated and undercut, concluded most Zardari fans. ¶7. (C) But the Faheem camp believes Zardari has already ISLAMABAD 00002353 002 OF 002 disenchanted enough party members and is too proud (or arrogant) to now seek their support. Even if Zardari offered, Faheem would not heel, they predicted. Contacts in the PM's office confirmed July 7 that there was an attempt to bring Zardari and Faheem together, but "their egos got in the way." Most PPP interlocutors predicted that no faction would try to split the party until Zardari's impotence was made obvious with the fall of the government ¶8. (C) Comment: It is no surprise that Zardari has tried to build his own cadre of loyalists. Much of the current squabbling is based on the battle for spoils, and even disgruntled staffers are unlikely to break from the party while Zardari controls the perks of governance. However, if Nawaz goes into opposition, Zardari will need to hold the PPP together while forging new alliances with other parties. Splitting the PPP at that juncture would hand Nawaz a victory, an outcome that Faheem, who has never proven to be a strong leader, is unlikely to attempt. Zardari needs to shore up his base. If he can accomplish this, rumors of a PPP split will quickly fade away. End comment. PATTERSON