NSA TARIQ AZIZ ON A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000226



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PK

SUBJECT: NSA TARIQ AZIZ ON A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT





Classified By: Charge Peter Bodde, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)



1. (C) Summary. During a meeting January 14 with NSA Aziz,

Charge said the U.S. strongly opposed any delay in Pakistan's

election as had been reportedly proposed to accompany

formation of a national unity government. Aziz said he

enthusiastically supported the idea of a national unity

government but insisted that elections would go forward as

scheduled on February 18. Aziz confirmed reports that the

Pakistan Muslim League (PML) faced significant losses because

of an expected sympathy vote over Benazir Bhutto's

assassination and continuing energy and flour shortages.

The idea of a national unity government and election delay

may have been just a trial balloon floated by Musharraf to

counter concerns about his party's declining fortunes.

However, we should continue to reinforce the need for

elections to proceed as scheduled. See septel for an

additional analysis of current calculations regarding a

national unity government. Charge also raised consular access

for Amcit Dr. Sarki, visas for IRI staff, and problems with

tenders submitted by American companies in Pakistan. End

Summary.



2. (C) Charge and Polcouns met January 15 with NSA Tariq

Aziz to raise several issues, including reports of an

election delay and the formation of a national unity

government. Charge noted that Musharraf had clearly ruled

out formation of a national unity government in the press on

January 14, but we were interested in Aziz's views on this

initiative. Charge stated that the U.S. strongly opposed any

delay in elections.



Background



3. (C) During a meeting in Islamabad on January 14,

Musharraf envoy Brig (Ret) Niaz Ahmad reportedly approached

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) President Shahbaz Sharif

about the possibility of forming a national unity government

which would oversee Pakistan for a year, thus delaying the

scheduled February 18 national and provincial elections.

Shahbaz briefed CG Lahore (septel) on the meeting;

subsequently, former Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar Khan

briefed CG Lahore January 15 on Khan's meeting with Niaz

(septel) and confirmed that Niaz had made the national unity

government proposal to PML-N. Shahbaz subsequently met with

the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan, and the press has

speculated that Riyadh supported PML-N participation in a

national unity government.



Unity Government-Yes; Delay-No



4. (C) Without acknowledging Niaz's initiative, Aziz

confirmed that he was enthusiastic about the idea of a

national unity government and had shared this view with

President Musharraf. A national unity government, he said,

would put to rest opposition complaints that the caretaker

government was biased and would improve the ground for

credible elections. However, Aziz said categorically that

elections would not be postponed. The government only

postponed the January 8 election because so many Election

Commission offices and ballot boxes had been destroyed. Aziz

did not explain how the government would manage to formulate

a national unity government in the five weeks remaining

before scheduled elections.



5. (C) Aziz admitted that the Pakistan Muslim League (PML)

party faced a backlash, both from the pro-Pakistan People's

Party (PPP) sympathy vote after Benazir Bhutto's

assassination, and from voters concerned about electricity

cuts and flour shortages. He said candidly that former Prime

Minister Shaukat Aziz had a great deal to answer for on

several fronts--the wheat shortage, sugar hoarding, poor

management of the energy sector, and the delay in

privatization of the steel industry. The next government

faced the unhappy prospect of raising gasoline prices as one

if its first acts. The intelligence agencies were now

predicting that the PML would receive between 35 and 85 seats

in the Punjab; Aziz thought the number would be somewhere in

between, probably 66. (Note: Before Bhutto' assassination,

PML leaders were confidently predicting they would win 110

seats in the Punjab.) But this was another sign that PML

needed a partner to form a coalition.



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6. (C) Charge asked if a coalition with PPP, as had been

envisioned with Bhutto, was still possible. Aziz said yes

and shared his views of PPP Vice Chairman AMIN Faheem as

someone with whom all the political parties could work.

Faheem was weak, Aziz acknowledged, and would need to appoint

good managers to the cabinet if he became Prime Minister.

According to Aziz, however, PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari

would not be accepted as a candidate for Prime Minister. He

doesn't even have a university degree so he is ineligible to

run for the National Assembly. Aziz said that Zardari had

invited him for talks but they had not yet agreed on a date

and place; clearly, Aziz found the prospect of working with

Zardari as distasteful.



7. (C) Aziz said that the PML would be able to work with

Shahbaz Sharif, but not with his brother Nawaz. If Shahbaz

had appealed the Election Commission's decision to declare

him ineligible to be a candidate for the National Assembly,

Aziz predicted Shahbaz would have won. Describing Shahbaz as

being sharper than Nawaz and a good Punjab administrator,

Aziz said he can also be difficult for subordinates to deal

with. He understood also that Shahbaz was on medication for

psychological problems.



Security Concerns



8. (C) Looking ahead, Aziz said he was increasingly

troubled by ongoing reports of suicide bombings across the

country. He estimated there were perhaps 300-400 suicide

bombers loose in Pakistan and agreed that, unfortunately,

Pakistani politicians had yet to take adequate security

measures. He noted that AMIN Faheem had recounted his pleas

to Benazir Bhutto the evening of her assassination to sit

down inside the protective cover of her armored car.



9. (SBU) Charge also raised with Aziz: (1) consular access

for Amcit Dr. Sarki; (2) visa renewals for International

Republican Institute (IRI) permanent staff in Pakistan; and

(3) our concerns about changing tender conditions for

American companies. Charge left white papers with Aziz on

all three issues.



10. (C) Comment: It is unclear if the Niaz initiative was

anything more than a trial balloon launched by an

increasingly nervous President Musharraf, who is

contemplating the possibility his party may not win the

elections. Although the Chaudhrys of the PML have reached

out to both the PPP and the PML-N about post-election

coalitions, it also is not clear that the PML blessed this

Niaz initiative. PML President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain has

been in China for the last week undergoing herbal medical

treatments. We do not believe Musharraf can form a unity

government at all, much less within the five weeks before

elections (see septel for a more complete analysis). Any

election delay at this point would further undermine

Musharraf's domestic and international credibility and would

send PPP supporters into the streets. Given the current

uncertainty of the political situation, we likely will see

more of these trial balloons and we will continue to strongly

counsel that elections be held as scheduled.



BODDE