BY ELECTION RESULTS IN PAKISTAN

UNCLAS ISLAMABAD 002245

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PK
SUBJECT: BY ELECTION RESULTS IN PAKISTAN

REF: ISLAMABAD


1. (SBU) Summary: Despite some violence and procedural
irregularities, voting in the June 26 by-Elections was held in a
generally free and fair environment. Turnout was reportedly 32%.
As expected, the ruling coalition swept the polls. Both the
Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
did well in their respective provincial strongholds of Punjab and
Sindh, but Nawaz Sharif's PML-N outpolled the PPP in both the center
and the critical Punjab. In the National Assembly, the PML-N now
has 95 of 342 seats to the PPP's 125. Musharraf's party did not win
any seats in the election. End Summary


2. (U) On June 26, 2008, by-elections were held for five National
Assembly and 28 Provincial Assembly seats. In the National
Assembly, the PML-N won three seats, and PPP won two seats. The
PML-N now has 95 of 342 total seats in the National Assembly; the
PPP now has 125.


3. (U) According to the Election Commission, in the Punjab
Provincial Assembly, PML-N won ten seats; the PPP won four; an
independent won one seat. In Sindh, the PPP increased its seats by
three. In the Northwest Frontier Province, the PPP, the Awami
National Party and independents won two seats each, and the PML-N
won one seat. In Balochistan, the PPP took one seat; independents
won two.


4. (U) On June 25, the Supreme Court agreed to postpone the election
in PLM-N leader Nawaz Sharif's constituency until it could rule on
the decision of Lahore High Court to declare Nawaz ineligible to
run. The Court is scheduled to take up the issue on June 30. If
Nawaz is allowed to contest, PML-N is expected to win.


5. (U) According to the Election Commission, the election turnout
was approximately 32%. In comments to the media, Election Commission
Secretary Dilshad claimed that 1,000 foreign and domestic observers
observed the election and declared the arrangements as satisfactory.
FAFEN, the domestic election observer group funded by USAID through
a grant to The Asia Foundation, monitored the elections and noted
some irregularities.

REPORTED VIOLENCE & IRREGULARITIES
--------------


6. (U) Sporadic incidents of violence were reported in Jahanian,
where PPP supporters allegedly resorted to aerial firing in a bid to
keep their opponent's voters away from polling station. Police
arrested five men who were later released. Nine people were reported
injured because of firing.


7. (U) Three people were reported injured in Samundari near
Faisalabad; five people were injured in Bahawalnagar when PPP and
PML-N supporters clashed. A case was registered against PPP's
candidate for allegedly harassing a presiding officer and attempting
to case 350 fake votes at gunpoint.


8. (U) In Mandi Bahauddin, supporters of PPP's provincial assembly
candidate reportedly kidnapped an assistant presiding officer and
ran away with ballot boxes from five polling stations. The
opposition Pakistan Muslim League Party alleged that its candidate
was winning with a lead of 4,000 but after the recovery of the
presiding officer and the polling boxes, the PPP's candidate was
declared as the winner.


9. (U) Women were prevented from voting in Mardan, Northwest
Frontier Province, where the PPP's candidate was elected. In a
discussion with an Election Commission official, PolFSN was told
that women were prohibited from voting "under a local arrangement
and understanding" between the contesting candidates.


10. (SBU) Comment: The results show that both PML-N and PPP
expanded their dominance in their respective home provinces of
Punjab and Sindh. Nawaz Sharif's "go Musharraf go" campaign helped
him slightly expand his strength vis a vis the PPP in the National
Assembly; more important for future elections, PML-N's lock on the
Punjab heartland grew. Musharraf's party won no seats at all. The
next election, an indirect election for the Senate, is scheduled for
March 2009.

PATTERSON