CABINET NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001219



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PK

SUBJECT: CABINET NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE



REF: ISLAMABAD 1072



Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)



1. (C) Summary. Internal leadership disputes continue to

plague the Pakistan People's Party (PPP),but Asif Zardari

appears to be focusing on a Punjabi -- either Yousef Gillani

or Shah Mehmood Qureshi -- as his choice for Prime Minister.

PPP leaders now hope there will be a new Prime Minister by

March 24. Negotiations to apportion ministries among the

coalition have bogged down over disputes between the PPP and

the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N). Although they have

agreed on a formula for sharing ministries, final choices

will be announced only after the Prime Minister is announced.

The PPP is planning a "First 100 Days" populist program to

address power outages, food inflation and unemployment. End

Summary.



2. (C) Polcouns met separately March 18 with PPP leader

Sherry Rehman and PPP Senator Enver Baig. Baig, who is a

staunch supporter of PPP Vice Chairman and prime ministerial

candidate Amin Faheem was despondent over continued

intra-party leadership disputes and warned of coming splits

within the party. Baig confirmed that Faheem told Zardari he

would support him as PM, but if Zardari did not take the job,

then Faheem would not back down from his own demand to be PM.

As Baig explained it, the problem Zardari has with Faheem is

based more than anything on class differences. When Zardari

was young, he and Faheem's younger brother were good friends,

but both had to pay homage to Faheem's spiritual/feudal

position by literally kissing Faheem's feet. Today,

according to Baig, Zardari cannot contemplate ceding

authority to Faheem.



3. (C) Rehman, just back from ongoing consultations with

coalition partners, admitted negotiations to apportion

cabinet ministries were emblematic of the difficulties to

come. The new PM, she predicted, would face a difficult job

mediating coalition priorities. She said there would only be

38-40 cabinet ministries in the new government. Despite

winning only six seats, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader

Fazlur Rehman had demanded three ministries; the PPP was

reluctantly agreeing to give him one, relating to Kashmir.

The Awami National Party would get two ministries. The

Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) was demanding all the plum

positions in Foreign Affairs, Interior, Defense and Finance.

Ishak Dar was adamant on getting Finance, and Rehman said the

PPP would probably concede this. She said she would happily

give up the Information Ministry to PML-N in exchange for a

more substantive portfolio but did not seem optimistic this

would happen. She confirmed rumors that PML-N's Nisar Ali

Khan wanted to be Foreign Minister.



4. (C) Unable to come to an agreement with PML-N, Rehman

said final decisions would be postponed until after the Prime

Minister is named. Later in the day, the PPP announced an

agreement on power sharing based on one ministry for every

six parliamentary members with added consideration given to a

party's Senate strength.



Prime Minister: Still Waiting

--------------



5. (C) When asked about Faheem and the continuing

controversy over his candidacy, Rehman simply shrugged and

said "it won't be Faheem--his chances are finished." Rehman

said, the party did not want to remove Faheem as president of

the PPP Parliamentarians, but "that would be up to him."

Acknowledging that Faheem may be working behind the scenes to

split from the party, she asked, "What can he do? He can't

form an effective forward block with 20-30 people."



6. (C) She confirmed that, by giving the National Assembly

Speaker and Deputy Speaker jobs to PPP representatives from

Sindh and the Northwest Frontier Province (septel),the Prime

Minister would have to be a Punjabi. She said that Ahmed

Mukhtar "has been talking too much" so the choice will be

between Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Yousef Gillani. She would

not say which one Zardari would choose. (Note: Zardari

earlier told Ambassador his choice would be Gillani. See

reftel) Rehman predicted that Musharraf would call the

National Assembly back into session over the weekend, and

said she hoped there should be a Prime Minister by Monday,



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March 24.



7. (C) Rehman confirmed that Zardari plans to run in a

by-election and predicted that Nawaz also would run. But she

said that Zardari has no plans to become Prime Minister.



First 100 Days

--------------



8. (C) Rehman said she had drafted a "First 100 Days" plan

that would be circulated for coalition approval. It focused

on a populist platform of addressing power shortages, food

inflation and unemployment; all proposals were for quick

executive action rather than parliamentary consideration.

She acknowledged that the government was broke and said the

PPP had a team of economic experts studying how to address

the current cash crunch.



9. (C) Given the economic challenges and the issue of

restoring the judiciary, Rehman said the PPP would avoid

proposing changes to the National Security Council or other

actions that will be controversial with the military. "We

just don't need that on our plate right now." She indicated

the PPP might reconsider its options after the March 2009

Senate elections. On the judiciary, Rehman reaffirmed there

was an agreement between Zardari and Nawaz Sharif not to

reinstate former Chief Justice Chaudhry. Asked how they

would accomplish this, Rehman said they were working with

Chaudhry's "peers" to convince him to back down, but she was

not certain they would succeed. Rehman said that Aitzaz

Ahsan wanted to contest the by-election on a PPP ticket, and

the party would use that as leverage to restrain his activism

on behalf of Chaudhry.



USG Support

--------------



10. (C) Assuming the latest air strikes in Waziristan were

launched by the U.S., Rehman said "these don't help us." She

did ask for U.S. support in working in the tribal areas and

said the government may also need additional financial

assistance "later on." She welcomed Ambassador's offer to

brief the PPP and all the major parties on what the U.S. is

providing Pakistan in terms of economic and military

assistance, including training and equipment for the Frontier

Corps. Tackling extremism, Rehman noted, is a priority for

the PPP; she said that the Awami National Party was providing

good information on ground realities. The PML-N was adamant

that it didn't want to describe the problem as "terrorism"

and instead use the terms "extremism" and "militancy," which

the PPP had readily agreed to do. She agreed that it would

important for the new government to increase cooperation with

Afghanistan.



11. (C) Comment: Zardari appears determined to make the

announcement of Prime Minster on his terms and at a time of

his choosing. The PPP is rapidly coming to terms with the

fact that, given Nawaz's strength, coalition politics are

going to be complicated and difficult.





PATTERSON