Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|
08ISLAMABAD1219 | 2008-03-19 13:46:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
VZCZCXRO9293 OO RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHIL #1219/01 0791346 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 191346Z MAR 08 ZDK FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6002 INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 8327 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 7518 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2993 RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 9325 RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 5116 RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 3827 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHWSMRC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001219 |
1. (C) Summary. Internal leadership disputes continue to
plague the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), but Asif Zardari appears to be focusing on a Punjabi -- either Yousef Gillani or Shah Mehmood Qureshi -- as his choice for Prime Minister. PPP leaders now hope there will be a new Prime Minister by March 24. Negotiations to apportion ministries among the coalition have bogged down over disputes between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N). Although they have agreed on a formula for sharing ministries, final choices will be announced only after the Prime Minister is announced. The PPP is planning a "First 100 Days" populist program to address power outages, food inflation and unemployment. End Summary. 2. (C) Polcouns met separately March 18 with PPP leader Sherry Rehman and PPP Senator Enver Baig. Baig, who is a staunch supporter of PPP Vice Chairman and prime ministerial candidate Amin Faheem was despondent over continued intra-party leadership disputes and warned of coming splits within the party. Baig confirmed that Faheem told Zardari he would support him as PM, but if Zardari did not take the job, then Faheem would not back down from his own demand to be PM. As Baig explained it, the problem Zardari has with Faheem is based more than anything on class differences. When Zardari was young, he and Faheem's younger brother were good friends, but both had to pay homage to Faheem's spiritual/feudal position by literally kissing Faheem's feet. Today, according to Baig, Zardari cannot contemplate ceding authority to Faheem. 3. (C) Rehman, just back from ongoing consultations with coalition partners, admitted negotiations to apportion cabinet ministries were emblematic of the difficulties to come. The new PM, she predicted, would face a difficult job mediating coalition priorities. She said there would only be 38-40 cabinet ministries in the new government. Despite winning only six seats, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Fazlur Rehman had demanded three ministries; the PPP was reluctantly agreeing to give him one, relating to Kashmir. The Awami National Party would get two ministries. The Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) was demanding all the plum positions in Foreign Affairs, Interior, Defense and Finance. Ishak Dar was adamant on getting Finance, and Rehman said the PPP would probably concede this. She said she would happily give up the Information Ministry to PML-N in exchange for a more substantive portfolio but did not seem optimistic this would happen. She confirmed rumors that PML-N's Nisar Ali Khan wanted to be Foreign Minister. 4. (C) Unable to come to an agreement with PML-N, Rehman said final decisions would be postponed until after the Prime Minister is named. Later in the day, the PPP announced an agreement on power sharing based on one ministry for every six parliamentary members with added consideration given to a party's Senate strength. Prime Minister: Still Waiting -------------------------- 5. (C) When asked about Faheem and the continuing controversy over his candidacy, Rehman simply shrugged and said "it won't be Faheem--his chances are finished." Rehman said, the party did not want to remove Faheem as president of the PPP Parliamentarians, but "that would be up to him." Acknowledging that Faheem may be working behind the scenes to split from the party, she asked, "What can he do? He can't form an effective forward block with 20-30 people." 6. (C) She confirmed that, by giving the National Assembly Speaker and Deputy Speaker jobs to PPP representatives from Sindh and the Northwest Frontier Province (septel), the Prime Minister would have to be a Punjabi. She said that Ahmed Mukhtar "has been talking too much" so the choice will be between Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Yousef Gillani. She would not say which one Zardari would choose. (Note: Zardari earlier told Ambassador his choice would be Gillani. See reftel) Rehman predicted that Musharraf would call the National Assembly back into session over the weekend, and said she hoped there should be a Prime Minister by Monday, ISLAMABAD 00001219 002 OF 002 March 24. 7. (C) Rehman confirmed that Zardari plans to run in a by-election and predicted that Nawaz also would run. But she said that Zardari has no plans to become Prime Minister. First 100 Days -------------------------- 8. (C) Rehman said she had drafted a "First 100 Days" plan that would be circulated for coalition approval. It focused on a populist platform of addressing power shortages, food inflation and unemployment; all proposals were for quick executive action rather than parliamentary consideration. She acknowledged that the government was broke and said the PPP had a team of economic experts studying how to address the current cash crunch. 9. (C) Given the economic challenges and the issue of restoring the judiciary, Rehman said the PPP would avoid proposing changes to the National Security Council or other actions that will be controversial with the military. "We just don't need that on our plate right now." She indicated the PPP might reconsider its options after the March 2009 Senate elections. On the judiciary, Rehman reaffirmed there was an agreement between Zardari and Nawaz Sharif not to reinstate former Chief Justice Chaudhry. Asked how they would accomplish this, Rehman said they were working with Chaudhry's "peers" to convince him to back down, but she was not certain they would succeed. Rehman said that Aitzaz Ahsan wanted to contest the by-election on a PPP ticket, and the party would use that as leverage to restrain his activism on behalf of Chaudhry. USG Support -------------------------- 10. (C) Assuming the latest air strikes in Waziristan were launched by the U.S., Rehman said "these don't help us." She did ask for U.S. support in working in the tribal areas and said the government may also need additional financial assistance "later on." She welcomed Ambassador's offer to brief the PPP and all the major parties on what the U.S. is providing Pakistan in terms of economic and military assistance, including training and equipment for the Frontier Corps. Tackling extremism, Rehman noted, is a priority for the PPP; she said that the Awami National Party was providing good information on ground realities. The PML-N was adamant that it didn't want to describe the problem as "terrorism" and instead use the terms "extremism" and "militancy," which the PPP had readily agreed to do. She agreed that it would important for the new government to increase cooperation with Afghanistan. 11. (C) Comment: Zardari appears determined to make the announcement of Prime Minster on his terms and at a time of his choosing. The PPP is rapidly coming to terms with the fact that, given Nawaz's strength, coalition politics are going to be complicated and difficult. PATTERSON |