AITZAZ AHSAN GIVES PARLIAMENT 30 DAYS TO RESTORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001212 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PK SUBJECT: AITZAZ AHSAN GIVES PARLIAMENT 30 DAYS TO RESTORE THE JUDICIARY Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Supreme Court Bar Association President Aitzaz Ahsan told Ambassador March 18 that former Chief Justice Chaudhry "will not storm the Supreme Court" upon his release (expected as soon as a new government is in place). Instead, Ahsan is giving the new parliament 30 days to find a way to restore all the deposed judges; if there is no action by then, the lawyers' movement will stage nationwide demonstrations. Ambassador disagreed with Ahsan's contention that the U.S. is hostile to the judges' reinstatement and reasserted that we believe this is an issue for the new government and new parliament to consider. Assuming Chaudhry does not take precipitous action, the good news is that the new government will have some breathing room to deliver on its promise to reinstate the judiciary. However, we would be surprised if this complex legal and political challenge can be resolved in a month and expect many more chapters in this drama. End Summary ¶2. (C) Ambassador and Polcouns met March 18 with Aitzaz Ahsan, President of the Supreme Court Bar Association, to discuss the ongoing controversy over how to restore the judges fired by President Musharraf on November 3, 2007. Ahsan said he was "massively disappointed" about the U.S. position on restoration of the judiciary. Ambassador disagreed with Ahsan's contention that the U.S. is hostile to their reinstatement and reasserted the position that we believe this is an issue for the new government and new parliament to consider. ¶3. (C) Ashan claimed that when former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is released (probably as soon as a new Prime Minister and/or Interior Secretary is named),"he will not storm the Supreme Court" demanding to be reinstated and will not destabilize President Musharraf. "We don't want to put Chief of Army Staff General Kayani in a position to have to respond to that kind of action," insisted Ahsan. Instead, Ahsan said he will wait 30 days to allow the parliament to reinstate the judiciary. If there is no action taken within 30 days, however, Ahsan warned that he would be organizing the lawyers' movement to stage nationwide demonstrations and a "long march" on Islamabad. Meanwhile, there were plans for Chaudhry to again tour the country, speaking to bar associations and other groups on the issue of reinstatement of the judiciary. ¶4. (C) Noting that the full Supreme Court was meeting March 18, Ashan repeated his public warning that the Court not attempt to impose a restraining order on the parliament to block action to restore the judiciary. If the Court takes this step, Ahsan promised a complete lawyers' boycott of all courts nationwide. (Note: The full Court did meet March 18 but focused on plans to reduce a growing backlog of cases and ensure pensions are provided for retiring judges.) ¶5. (C) Ahsan defended the former Chief Justice at length, saying that he was liberal, secular, anti-terrorist and pro-environmental. He said that Chaudhry's term did not end until 2013, so the U.S. should "face the fact that this or some future Pakistani government will reinstate him." Ambassador denied Ahsan's assertions that the U.S. opposed the Chief Justice or that our position on the judiciary was based on Chaudhry's rulings in favor of the "disappeared," those persons detained by the GOP without charge on suspicion of terrorist activities. Ambassador explained that she had sought an appointment with Chaudhry (after he was reinstated and before November 3) to discuss the issue of how we could work together to help Pakistan bring the "disappeared" into the legal system under Pakistan's extensive anti-terrorism laws. ¶6. (C) On his own future, Ahsan confirmed rumors that he would run in a by-election and said that both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had offered to support him. ¶7. (C) Comment: As always, Ahsan's ego was center stage in this exchange. Notwithstanding Ahsan's assertions, few believe that, if reinstated, the former Chief Justice would not seek to oust Musharraf. PPP leader Sherry Rehman told Polcouns March 18 that Ahsans prefers to run on a PPP ticket ISLAMABAD 00001212 002 OF 002 and the party is hoping to use that leverage to restrain Ahsan's activism on behalf of Chaudhry. Rehman said the PPP and the PML-N have a quiet deal not to reinstate Chaudhry, but she was far from certain, if the coalition would succeed. ¶8. (C) If true, the good news is that Chaudhry does not plan an immediate confrontation that will put the new government in a very awkward position vis a vis their own followers and their coalition partners. But we will be surprised if the judges' issue were resolved within 30 days and expect many more chapters in this drama. Septel will review the current state of legal analysis on the issue of restoring the judiciary. PATTERSON