Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08ISLAMABAD1192 | 2008-03-17 13:13:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
VZCZCXRO6843 OO RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHIL #1192/01 0771313 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 171313Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5946 INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 8321 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 7505 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2989 RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 9300 RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 5108 RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 3816 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHWSMRC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY |
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convened March 17 in a festive atmosphere with members taking their oaths of office and then pausing to remember Benazir Bhutto. Coalition leaders Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif (both unelected) watched from the gallery, as did defeated leaders of Musharraf's party. Zardari has yet to name his choice for Prime Minister. Amin Faheem spent the weekend trying to garner support for his candidacy, and the PPP's leadership struggle is growing increasingly ugly. If all goes as planned, the Assembly will vote on a new Prime Minister March 22; within 24 hours, President Musharraf is expected to ask the PM to form a government. End Summary. 2. (SBU) In a festive atmosphere, Pakistan's new National Assembly members took their oaths of office from the former Speaker on March 17. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) members sported large tags in PPP colors embossed with Benazir Bhutto's picture. PPP leader Asif Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif (both unelected) watched together from the speaker's gallery; they were welcomed with much desk pounding, a traditional sign of support. Quietly surveying the proceedings from a different gallery were losing members of the former government, including Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and former Minister of Information Durrani. Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, former Chief Minister of Punjab, was on the floor and is expected to become the leader of the opposition. 3. (SBU) Zardari told the press "this is the last day of dictatorship," Nawaz Sharif said the coalition's agenda was "democracy versus dictatorship. It has to end, it has to be defeated." 4. (SBU) After agreeing that members would take an oath under the 1973 constitution (i.e., unamended by Musharraf), they said a short prayer in memory of Benazir Bhutto, and signed in as members. There are 196 new members of the 342 seat Assembly, including 75 women; there are still eight seats vacant because the results have been contested, the former member died, or the winner won in more than one constituency. By-elections are tentatively scheduled for mid-April. Still No Prime Minister -------------------------- 5. (SBU) There was no other legislative business. The Assembly is scheduled to nominate its Speaker -- constitutionally, its first task -- on March 18, and vote on him (or her) March 19. If all goes as planned, the nomination of a prime minister will take place on March 20 with a vote on March 22. As soon as the Assembly approves the name, we expect President Musharraf to formally invite the new Prime Minister to form a government and be sworn in, probably within 24 hours of the vote. 6. (C) Coalition members from the PPP, PML-N, Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) met for consultations before the session but there is still no news of Zardari's choice for Prime Minister. Over the weekend, there were rallies organized for PPP Vice-Chairman Amin Faheem in Karachi and Lahore, and there are signs the PPP's leadership struggle is becoming increasingly fractious. Faheem alternately met with or was forced to cancel meetings over the weekend with key PPP, PML-N, JUI-F and ANP leaders to push his candidacy. There are rumors Faheem may resort to legal action, claiming he rather than Zardari is the true President of the PPPP (PPP Parliamentarians), the officially registered party. Weekend editorials lamented the PPP's intra-leadership battles and hinted that Musharraf was trying to undermine the coalition by backing Faheem instead of Zardari. Outside the National Assembly building March 17 were banners cautioning "traitors to their party," a reference to Faheem's refusal to withdraw his PM candidacy. Publicly, Faheem continues to insist he has no difference with Zardari but says if he is not named PM, he will support only Zardari and no other choice. 7. (C) Comment: It is still not clear who Zardari will name for Prime Minister or why he continues to delay an ISLAMABAD 00001192 002 OF 002 announcement. However, these delays increasingly are undermining what is a golden PPP opportunity to move forward on a substantive agenda while the fragile coalition's honeymoon exists. Faheem is demonstrating surprising stubbornness in refusing to recognize the political reality that Zardari is now running the party. No doubt, both the PML and PML-N would relish any split that weakens the PPP. While he has sympathy and some support from PPP rank and file over the way Zardari is treating him, we doubt Faheem can or will form an effective splinter group. PATTERSON |