PAKISTAN'S NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CONVENES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001192



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PK

SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CONVENES





Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)



1. (C) Summary. Pakistan's newly elected National Assembly

convened March 17 in a festive atmosphere with members taking

their oaths of office and then pausing to remember Benazir

Bhutto. Coalition leaders Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif

(both unelected) watched from the gallery, as did defeated

leaders of Musharraf's party. Zardari has yet to name his

choice for Prime Minister. Amin Faheem spent the weekend

trying to garner support for his candidacy, and the PPP's

leadership struggle is growing increasingly ugly. If all

goes as planned, the Assembly will vote on a new Prime

Minister March 22; within 24 hours, President Musharraf is

expected to ask the PM to form a government. End Summary.



2. (SBU) In a festive atmosphere, Pakistan's new National

Assembly members took their oaths of office from the former

Speaker on March 17. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) members

sported large tags in PPP colors embossed with Benazir

Bhutto's picture. PPP leader Asif Zardari and Pakistan

Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif (both unelected)

watched together from the speaker's gallery; they were

welcomed with much desk pounding, a traditional sign of

support. Quietly surveying the proceedings from a different

gallery were losing members of the former government,

including Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry

Shujaat Hussain and former Minister of Information Durrani.

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, former Chief Minister of Punjab, was

on the floor and is expected to become the leader of the

opposition.



3. (SBU) Zardari told the press "this is the last day of

dictatorship," Nawaz Sharif said the coalition's agenda was

"democracy versus dictatorship. It has to end, it has to be

defeated."



4. (SBU) After agreeing that members would take an oath

under the 1973 constitution (i.e., unamended by Musharraf),

they said a short prayer in memory of Benazir Bhutto, and

signed in as members. There are 196 new members of the 342

seat Assembly, including 75 women; there are still eight

seats vacant because the results have been contested, the

former member died, or the winner won in more than one

constituency. By-elections are tentatively scheduled for

mid-April.



Still No Prime Minister

--------------



5. (SBU) There was no other legislative business. The

Assembly is scheduled to nominate its Speaker --

constitutionally, its first task -- on March 18, and vote on

him (or her) March 19. If all goes as planned, the

nomination of a prime minister will take place on March 20

with a vote on March 22. As soon as the Assembly approves

the name, we expect President Musharraf to formally invite

the new Prime Minister to form a government and be sworn in,

probably within 24 hours of the vote.



6. (C) Coalition members from the PPP, PML-N, Awami

National Party (ANP) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) met for

consultations before the session but there is still no news

of Zardari's choice for Prime Minister. Over the weekend,

there were rallies organized for PPP Vice-Chairman Amin

Faheem in Karachi and Lahore, and there are signs the PPP's

leadership struggle is becoming increasingly fractious.

Faheem alternately met with or was forced to cancel meetings

over the weekend with key PPP, PML-N, JUI-F and ANP leaders

to push his candidacy. There are rumors Faheem may resort to

legal action, claiming he rather than Zardari is the true

President of the PPPP (PPP Parliamentarians),the officially

registered party. Weekend editorials lamented the PPP's

intra-leadership battles and hinted that Musharraf was trying

to undermine the coalition by backing Faheem instead of

Zardari. Outside the National Assembly building March 17

were banners cautioning "traitors to their party," a

reference to Faheem's refusal to withdraw his PM candidacy.

Publicly, Faheem continues to insist he has no difference

with Zardari but says if he is not named PM, he will support

only Zardari and no other choice.



7. (C) Comment: It is still not clear who Zardari will

name for Prime Minister or why he continues to delay an



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announcement. However, these delays increasingly are

undermining what is a golden PPP opportunity to move forward

on a substantive agenda while the fragile coalition's

honeymoon exists. Faheem is demonstrating surprising

stubbornness in refusing to recognize the political reality

that Zardari is now running the party. No doubt, both the

PML and PML-N would relish any split that weakens the PPP.

While he has sympathy and some support from PPP rank and file

over the way Zardari is treating him, we doubt Faheem can or

will form an effective splinter group.



PATTERSON