Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08ISLAMABAD1097 | 2008-03-12 08:49:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
VZCZCXRO2397 OO RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHIL #1097 0720849 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 120849Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5818 INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 8303 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 7474 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2973 RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 9255 RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 5071 RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 3778 RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY |
C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 001097 |
1. (C) Summary: In a March 11 meeting with Ambassador,
National Security Advisor (NSA) Tariq Aziz indicated his initial surprise at Pakistan People's Party (PPP) co-chair Asif Zardari's deal with Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif. But after talking to Zardari, Aziz did not seem particularly alarmed. He said that he and others in the government were staying out of the internal PPP debates about the Prime Minister position. He reserved most of his criticism for the PML-Q leaders, particularly Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, who had still been predicting on election night that the PML-Q would win over 100 assembly seats in Punjab alone. End Summary. 2. (C) Ambassador spoke with NSA Tariq Aziz on March 11 to hear the government's version of the ongoing discussions with the PPP. Aziz said the March 9 PPP agreement with PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif had taken them by surprise, with the only notification being a text message from Zardari, saying "don't worry." In the past few days, Aziz and ISI Director General Nadeem Taj had met with Zardari (most recently until four in the morning) and heard essentially the same message that was conveyed by Zardari to post (see reftel): the PPP will not seek to restore former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and the PPP wants to work with President Musharraf. Aziz said this view made sense to him, since Zardari's political position is more secure with Musharraf as President. If Musharraf stepped down, there would be multiple claimants for the presidency, including the newly released and increasingly strident head of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan. 3. (C) Aziz said Musharraf was not considering stepping down but was sometimes discouraged. Aziz's impression of Zardari's behavior so far was largely positive: Zardari is sincere about working with the Musharraf government but the jury is still out on whether Zardari can control Nawaz. Zardari is easier to deal with than his late wife and seems more practical, Aziz added. When asked about the government's reaction to the elimination of Amin Faheem as a prime minister candidate, Aziz described Faheem as "out" and said: "we are staying out of this one." For Musharraf, there was absolutely nothing to be gained by injecting his views into an internal PPP struggle. Aziz repeated that any of the major prime minister candidates probably would work fine with Musharraf. 4. (C) Aziz seemed particularly irritated with PML-Q leaders Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, who continue, in his view, to exercise too much influence on Musharraf. Aziz recounted how he and now Chief of Army Staff Kayani had pushed hard for Benazir Bhutto's return and an alliance with the PPP, but the alliance predictably had been "sabotaged" by the Chaudhrys. Aziz had told Musharraf that the PML-Q would go down in flames, but Musharraf was convinced by wildly optimistic scenarios from the Chaudhrys. Aziz blamed the party's failure specifically on Pervez Elahi, who had been so overconfident that he had played games with the tickets and had moved aside many viable candidates. Aziz said that even on election night, the PML-Q was still predicting a win of 100 assembly seats in Punjab alone. Aziz recounted that when he heard this, he was concerned that the PML-Q would try to rig the elections even at that late hour. PATTERSON |