COALITION "DECLARATION": FEDERAL PARTICIPATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001071 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: COALITION "DECLARATION": FEDERAL PARTICIPATION EXCHANGED FOR RESOLUTION ON JUDICIARY REF: A. ISLAMABAD 1015 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 1034 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Late March 9, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) announced the details for the formation of Pakistan's next coalition government. In exchange for the PPP's commitment to pass a resolution ostensibly returning deposed judges to the bench, the PML-N will share responsibility (and blame) at the federal level by allowing its members to be sworn in as ministers. In private, however, both parties express varying interpretations of the bargain: PPP lawyers doubt that a simple resolution will suffice to restore the judiciary, while PML-N contacts still talk about their federal ministers first taking office as "advisors" only. End summary. In Writing -------------- ¶2. (C) Titled the "Murree Summit Declaration," opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Asif Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif went before the press late March 9 to formalize their plans for Pakistan's next government. The two main opposition parties will also be joined by the much smaller Awami National Party (ANP). The coalition will account for nearly two-thirds of the parliament's lower house. ¶3. (C) The two-party agreement hinged on the PPP's desire for the PML-N to participate fully in the federal government (and, therefore, share national-level responsibilities) and on the PML-N's insistence to fulfill immediately its campaign pledge to restore the pre-state of emergency (SOE) judiciary (including former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry). The PML-N agreed to take charge of some federal ministries; the PPP agreed to pass a National Assembly resolution calling for the judiciary's restoration. Between the Lines -------------- ¶4. (C) Though a simple, seven-sentence document, both sides have already conveyed to EmbOffs their different interpretations. On PML-N federal ministers, it appears the party will now allow its members to take the oath of office from President Pervez Musharraf. They had discussed (and still hold in reserve) the option of heading-up ministries instead as "advisors," whose designation is allowed under the Constitution. ¶5. (C) PPP legal counsel Senator Latif Khosa was emphatic when speaking with PolOff that the resolution to reinstate the deposed judges has no legal effect. He insisted that an amendment passed by two-thirds of each house will be needed to reverse Musharraf's actions. Part of an inter-party committee reviewing legal options, Khosa reminded PolOff: "The deal announced tonight is political; the legal requirement is a different matter." This committee is expected to report back a joint legal determination in the coming weeks. Khosa also noted that the resolution should only pertain to the judiciary issue, and not be, as the PML-N has been pushing, a censure of all of Musharraf's SOE actions. ¶6. (C) But PML-N contacts contend the National Assembly's resolution will be legally sufficient to place the former judges back on the bench immediately. PML-N Chairman Zafarulhaq told PolOff March 10 that, upon passage of the resolution, the new Law Minister (rumored to be Khosa) will be able to issue an executive order based on that resolution reinstating the judiciary. Zafarulhaq insisted that a two-thirds bi-cameral vote or judicial action (by a Supreme Court which his party does not recognize) would not be needed. ¶7. (C) In March 7 conversations, PML-N Information Secretary and newly-elected parliamentarian Ahsan Iqbal left open the possibility of impeaching Musharraf from office if he does not acknowledge the "full indictment of the election" as well as such a resolution. And, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif publicly reiterated after last night's announcement his campaign rhetoric that Musharraf's re-election was "illegal." ISLAMABAD 00001071 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) Supreme Court Bar Association President Aitzaz Ahsan concurred that a resolution is all that is needed to bring the deposed judges back, including his client, former Chief Justice Chaudhry. He warned that the new GOP would not last long if the judiciary is not fully restored within the 30 days of the National Assembly's convocation, the timeframe agreed to by the coalition parties for passage of the resolution. Other leaders of the lawyers' movement have been privately less emphatic with EmbOffs regarding the extent and speed of the judiciary's possible restoration (ref A). Other Items -------------- ¶9. (U) The PPP and PML-N also agreed that the former would take ministries in the latter's Punjab provincial government. The PPP will support the PML-N's selection of Punjab Provincial Assembly Speaker and Deputy Speaker, while the PML-N will support the PPP's choices for National Assembly Speaker and Deputy Speaker. ¶10. (C) Calling on Musharraf to convene the National Assembly immediately, the declaration lastly commits all coalition parties to support PPP's nominee for Prime Minister. (Note: The two-party agreement did not decide the issue of PM, and most PPP interlocutors expect Zardari to wait until the very last moment, possibly after the National Assembly is convened, to make the announcement. In a March 7 conversation with the Ambassador, PPP co-vice chairman Amin Faheem admitted he will likely not be tapped as PM (ref B). Speaking to several PPP parliamentarians over the weekend, however, it appears that many voiced their support for Faheem in private meetings with Zardari. Faheem-supporter Senator Enver Baig even warned PolOff of "big trouble for Zardari" if Faheem were passed over. End note.) ¶11. (C) Comment: On the face of it, last night's agreement appears to be a straightforward PPP/PML-N quid-pro-quo: ministers for judges. However, after private discussions with both parties, there are definite differences of legal interpretation over the as-yet-to-be-drafted resolution restoring the judiciary. Differences also remain over implementation of such key issues as whether the PML-N will accept ministerships (which currently require swearing in by the President) as well as how and if all of the judiciary might be restored. End comment. PATTERSON