IRANIAN MAJLES--POST ELECTIONS ANALYSIS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000015 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD BAKU FOR HAUGEN, LONDON FOR ISTANBUL E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/19/2018 TAGS: IR PGOV PREL SUBJECT: IRANIAN MAJLES--POST ELECTIONS ANALYSIS REF: RPO DUBAI 0014 RPO DUBAI 00000015 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, DoS. REASON: 1.4 (d) 1.(S) Summary: Analysts and observers appear to agree that although conservatives retain control of the Majles, the influence of Ahmadinejad loyalists appears to have weakened, though all sides are claiming victory. As a result, this Majles is more likely to be at odds with the president's administration, particularly on domestic economic issues. One contact characterized the trend as the rise of technocratic MPs, who are likely to prioritize action over ideology, in the mold of Tehran mayor Qalibaf. Updated elections results confirm that conservatives have won the majority of the seats in the key Tehran constituency (19 of 30). The remaining 11 seats will be contested in runoff elections scheduled for late April, along with seats in 41 other constituencies. According to several contacts, elections for provincial seats are much more about local issues than national politics, with the result that the provincial MPs are more likely to ally with whichever political grouping is most powerful in the Majles, in order to get support for bills and projects that benefit their province. 2.(S) Summary continued: The first order of business for the new Majles when they take office in June will be to vote on Majles leadership positions. According to one analyst, former Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS) secretary Larijani is unlikely to challenge current Majles speaker Haddad-Adel - who was reelected - for his position, but will probably become the first deputy speaker, or the chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy commission. It will be noteworthy whether many prominent critics of the president are voted to leadership positions. If pragmatic conservatives gain a majority and take the important leadership positions in the Majles, their candidate may be well-placed to win the 2009 presidential elections, though it is far too soon to make predictions. End summary. Results update -------------- 3.(U) According to nation-wide results reported by the Interior Ministry, 70% of votes went to conservatives, 25% to reformers, and 5% to independents. According to Iranian press, the final counts for the most important race in Tehran are complete and 19 of the 30 seats have been decided. The remaining 11 seats will be contested in the runoff elections, pitting reformers against principle-ists, or conservatives. In Tehran's first round, conservatives dominated from the two main conservative coalitions, primarily the United Front of Principle-ists (UFP) which has been associated with President Ahmadinejad but nonetheless includes some of his critics, and to a lesser degree, the Broad and Popular Coalition of Principle-ists (BPCP) which comprises largely pragmatic conservatives who somewhat distanced themselves from the president. All of the 19 Tehran seats decided in the first round went to conservatives, the majority of whom are on the UFP list, although five were on both the UFP and BPCP lists, and two were solely on the BPCP. Out of reformist candidates in Tehran, only the reformist list header, Majid Ansari (a former MP and a member of the Expediency Council) ranked in the top thirty vote-getters in Tehran. According to Iranian press, the runoff elections are scheduled for late April, and the remaining Tehran seats will be contested then, along with seats in 41 other constituencies. All of the political groups are proclaiming victory in their public statements; conservatives because they dominated, and reformers because they appear to have retained a decent minority, despite deep cuts in their roster. Political alliances and bandwagoning -------------- 4.(S) One Iranian-American political consultant told IRPOff that overall, it is more significant to differentiate between provincial MPs and MPs in large cities than to categorize all 290 MPs along ideological lines. Echoing what a US-based Iranian analyst told IRPOff separately, the consultant said that the elections in the provinces are much more about local issues than national politics. A separate Tehran-based Iranian analyst argued in an analytical assessment of the elections that only about 70 of the 290 MPs have influence in national policy making. The provincial MPs are more likely to bandwagon with whichever political grouping is most powerful in the Majles, in RPO DUBAI 00000015 002.2 OF 003 order to get support for bills and projects that benefit their province, the consultant asserted. Two exceptions, he said, are former SNCS Secretary Larijani, who was elected to a seat in Qom with 76% of the vote, and Alaeddin Borujerdi from Borujerd, who is currently the chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee and was reelected. Both are likely to be strong national political figures. Majles leadership -------------- 5.(S) Following the runoff elections scheduled for late April, the first order of business for the newly elected Majles will be to vote on the Majles leadership positions, called the Presiding Board. The positions of Majles speaker and the deputy speakers will be decided at that time, along with the leadership and membership of parliamentary commissions. According to several sources, it is unlikely that Larijani would immediately challenge sitting Speaker Haddad-Adel for the position although he may do so in 2009. (Note: The term of presiding board is one year. Endnote.) He predicted that Larijani would likely be the first deputy speaker, or the chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy commission. The consultant also noted that the Majles has the power to disqualify newly elected MPs, and could use this to manipulate the final elections results. (Note: The contact did not specify the legal basis for this authority. Endnote.) The contact stated that this was how current Majles speaker Haddad-Adel came into parliament, since Haddad-Adel had placed 31st on the list for the 30 Tehran seats in the 2004 Majles elections. According to the consultant, the Majles then disqualified one of the 30 newly elected MPs, so that Haddad-Adel moved up on the list and claimed the 30th seat in Tehran. While he did not predict such tactics would be used by the newly elected Majles, he noted the possibility. The rise of technocrats? -------------- 6.(S) Analysts and observers appear to agree that although conservatives retain control of the Majles, the influence of Ahmadinejad loyalists appears to have weakened. As a result, this Majles is more likely to be at odds with the president's administration, particularly on domestic economic issues. The Tehran-based political analyst characterized the trend as the rise of technocratic MPs, who are likely to prioritize action over ideology. This "faction" takes its lead from the triumvirate of pragmatic conservatives, former National Security Council Secretary Larijani, former IRGC commander Rezaie, and Tehran mayor Qalibaf, the analyst asserted. A US-based academic wrote that the only significant political implication of the rise of pragmatic conservatives is the challenge that those associated with that "faction," such as Larijani or Qalibaf, might pose to Ahmadinejad in the 2009 presidential elections. Reformers and other minorities -------------- 7.(S) As noted in reftel, reformers fared better than expected, based on partial results, though they remain a minority in the Majles. Although final numbers of their representation will not be known until after the runoffs, one US-based analyst warned in an article posted on the "Informed Comment" blog that reformists trying to compete in second rounds may again fall victim to "election engineering." She also noted that women fared badly: three won in the first round, none from the reform camp. An untested source who claimed to be associated with the Alumni Office for Consolidating Unity, (Advar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat, the student opposition group) said that student activists boycotted the election because the Supreme Leader had pre-selected the winners. 8.(C) Among the five designated seats for religious minorities, it appears that two representatives are new, the Zoroastrian and the Jewish representatives. (Comment: We have not heard if the incumbents tried to run or not, but it is noteworthy that in 2005 the current Zoroastrian representative Kourosh Niknam publicly attacked Guardian Council Secretary Jannati, after Jannati said that non-Muslims were like animals loitering around the world spreading corruption. Jewish representative Morris Motamed, who served two terms in parliament, also publicly criticized Ahmadinejad for his Holocaust-denial comments, as well as accusing state TV of airing anti-Semitic broadcasting. End comment.) RPO DUBAI 00000015 003.2 OF 003 Predictions -------------- ¶9. (S) The Tehran-based analyst, whose own political views are centrist, wrote in a newsletter the following three predictions for the 8th Majles: -- With economic woes now evident, the new Majles is expected to focus on solutions, not further exposure of Ahmadinejad's failed economic policies. Disputes could nonetheless erupt if the president is seen as deliberately opposing sound advice. -- Current Speaker Haddad-Adel, an ally of the president (and son-in-law of the Supreme Leader),is expected to retain his position for now, but he may resign in 2009 to run for president. He is then most likely to be replaced by Larijani. -- The Majles will not have much influence over the nuclear issue. Nonetheless, he writes, analysts believe that 2008 will see important steps made to resolve Iran's nuclear file, mainly due to the fact that Ahmadinejad has lost his majority. An indication of the changing dynamics is the fact that Iran has shown willingness to continue negotiations with the EU, even though the president initially stated that Iran would only interact with the IAEA in the future. Analysts agree that the president is not sitting in the driver's seat anymore, but he will certainly continue to influence the policies directly and indirectly. 10.(S) Comment: While this analyst's view may be too optimistic, given the generally muddy nature of Iranian politics, it would be a clear sign of a new direction of the Majles took on a strong, positive role in economic decision-making. The economy is clearly Iran's weak point, with or without sanctions, not even rescued by oil prices at well over $100 a barrel. Iranians frequently say that any faction that reestablishes relations with the US will win strong public support; it is equally true that any group seen as responsible for turning around Iran's economic mismanagement will likely be well-placed in the 2009 presidential elections, provided their candidate gets the Supreme Leader's backing. Regarding the nuclear file, those decisions will remain firmly in the hand of the Supreme Leader and his closest advisors. BURNS