ASSESSMENT OF FIRST DAY RESULTS OF IRANIAN MAJLES ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000013 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: IR PGOV PREL PHUM SUBJECT: ASSESSMENT OF FIRST DAY RESULTS OF IRANIAN MAJLES ELECTIONS RPO DUBAI 00000013 001.2 OF 003 1.(SBU) Summary: Initial parliamentary election results in Iran predictably show a predominance of conservative candidates winning, but the results from Tehran - historically an important political barometer - will not be released for a few days. Iran's interior ministry announced that turnout in the March 14 Majles elections was close to 65%, higher than four years ago. Iranian state-run Press TV reported that 49% of the count has been completed and that conservatives have so far won 77% (108 seats) of the 141 seats that have been counted - without differentiating between pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives, and the president's conservative critics. A spokesman of the United Front of Principle-ists, which has been associated in the press with Ahmadinejad, but also includes some of his conservative critics, told state-run news outlet IRNA that 70% of the newly elected legislators are on the UFP list. Press TV reported that so far reformists have won 33 seats (23%),and an unknown number of independents have also won seats. AP is reporting that 115 of the 290 seats have been decided so far. Of those 115, AP reports that pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives have won 42 seats (36%),his conservative critics have 28 seats (24%),reformists have 16 seats (14%),and independents have 29 seats (25%). 2.(SBU) Summary continued: Analysis in Iranian press noted that because the votes in the provinces center more around local issues than national politics, only the results of the big cities, especially the 30 seats in the capital Tehran, will clarify political trends in parliament. In the only reported result so far of the concurrently-held by-elections for the Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hashemzadeh-Harisi was re-elected in the East Azerbaijan constituency. Reformist groups have already suggested there were some "electoral irregularities" and a reformist website charged that Basij forces at polling stations were intimidating voters, but no reports have been seen so far of any violence. Analysts see the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the big winners in these elections. While there are reportedly several political factions within the IRGC, the group as a whole is seen as Iran's most dedicated supporters of the revolution and the Supreme Leader. End summary. Government reports high turnout -------------- 3.(U) "Around 65 percent of the electorate took part in the elections, which is more than the last election," said Habibollah Hassan Khanlou, the secretary of the interior ministry's election office. The 2004 Majles elections saw a turnout of 51%. Nearly 44 million Iranians were eligible to vote in these elections. (Note: Iran's voting age was raised last year from 15 to 18. Endnote.) Voter participation is important to the government of Iran because they declare high turnout to be an indication of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republican system. Interior Minister Purmohammadi even directly connected a high voter turnout with public support for the government's nuclear policy, saying that the "massive turnout" at the polls was Iran's response to the newest UNSC resolution against Iran. 4.(SBU) Numerous senior government officials made statements in the days before the election encouraging the public to vote to thwart the plans of Iran's "enemies." Although the reform candidates were heavily vetted out of the competition, reform leaders such as former president Khatami and former Majles speaker Karrubi nonetheless encouraged reformers and their supporters to turn out at the polls. A limited number of foreign press outlets were allowed to cover the Majles elections from inside the country, although it was not clear whether their access was limited to Tehran. International press outlets reported apparently low voter turnout early on election day, and some reported that turnout increased later in the day. Polls in Iran were kept open an additional five hours, closing at 11 pm local time. At the out-of-country polling station in the Iranian consulate in Dubai, there were no crowds visible during the day, although the consulate may not have been the only polling station in Dubai. Partial results in, but not for Tehran -------------- 5.(U) Partial results from some of Iran's 30 provinces have already been received, although no results for the crucial Tehran constituency have been reported yet. Interior Minister Purmohammadi initially said that the final nationwide results would be reported by March 20 at the latest but was subsequently quoted in different sources saying that results would be RPO DUBAI 00000013 002.2 OF 003 released within 3-4 days or conversely, within 24 hours. Authorities announced March 15 that runoff elections would be necessary in 17 constituencies, without noting when the runoffs would take place. ¶6. (U) Iranian state-run press reported March 15 that 49% of the count has been completed and that conservatives have so far won 77% of the 141 (out of a total 290) seats that have been counted. These reports do not differentiate between pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives, and the president's conservative critics, the so-called United Front of Principle-ists (UFP) and Broad and Popular Coalition of Principle-ists (BPCP) respectively . According to state-run English-language news outlet Press TV, 141 seats have already been decided, and conservatives gained 108 of those seats (77%),without differentiating between the different principle-ist factions. Reformists won 33 seats so far (23%),and an unknown number of independents won seats, according to Press TV. ¶7. (SBU) The most recent AP story reported that 115 seats had been decided so far, and of those 115, pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives won 42 seats (36%),his conservative critics have 28 seats (24%),reformists have 16 seats (14%),and independents have 29 seats (25%). (Comment: If this trend continues of such a sizeable independent representation, the political leanings of this independent group could have an important impact on the Majles. End comment) According to state-run news outlet Al Alam, some politicians said their informal exit polls suggested the UFP, the most pro-government group of candidates, was doing well in Tehran, where conservatives hold 26 of the capital's seats in the outgoing assembly. UFP secretary Shahabeddin Sadr told state-run news outlet IRNA March 15, "The names announced by the Interior Ministry show that 70 percent of the newly elected legislators are on our list of candidates." A BPCP leader, Ali Larijani, reportedly won more that 75% of the vote for the seat he was contesting in Qom, according to Fars News. Fars News commented that considering his landslide, it remains to be seen whether Larijani would replace as new parliament speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, head of the conservative faction who ran for Tehran where results have yet to be announced. According to Iranian press, another conservative critic of Ahmadinejad, Majles National Security and Foreign Policy commission head Alaeddin Boroujerdi, was re-elected. Analysis in Iranian press noted that because the votes in the provinces center more around local issues than national politics, only the results of the big cities, especially the 30 seats in the capital Tehran, will clarify political trends in parliament. 8.(U) In comments on the eve of the elections, Supreme Leader Khamenei was seen as encouraging people to vote for conservatives (also called principle-ists),although it was not clear from his comments whether he was referring to pro-Ahmadinejad candidates or conservatives writ-large. Khamenei enjoined the Iranian public to vote for "suitable people, who support people's rights and who are committed and devoted to Islamic foundations and values." Reformists make some allegations of "electoral irregularities" -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Police and Basij forces were reportedly present at polling stations, with young government supporters reportedly urging the public to vote for conservatives, according to AP. According to AFP, the leader of one of the two main reformist camps, National Trust Party head Mehdi Karrubi told reporters at the Interior Ministry, "There are concerns regarding some irregularities by willful people to do something with the ballot boxes." Reformist former interior minister Abdolvahed Musavi-Lari reportedly sent a letter to Guardian Council head Ayatollah Jannati complaining of electoral irregularities and alleged fraud, according to western news outlet ADNKronos. A reformist electoral site, Baharestan, reportedly alleged that Basij forces were intimidating voters in areas south of Tehran. According to Resalat newspaper, Guardian Council head Ayatollah Jannati said there would be no fraud in vote-counting but there have been no specific reports of government response to the claims of interference in polling. Reformers reportedly denounced a decision by the Interior Ministry to announce the election results only after the vote tally was final. Results had always been announced as they were tallied in the past while counting continued. "We are hearing various reports of irregularities in favor of the government," said Abdullah Nasseri, a spokesman for reformers, adding that the decision to announce the results after the final count created further concerns. However, according to Press TV, Hossein Mar'ashi, the head of a reformist coalition electoral headquarters told Fars, RPO DUBAI 00000013 003.2 OF 003 "We are sure that the election was free and fair. We also reject US and British news agencies' claim that the reformists have plan to withdraw. It's a mere lie." ¶10. (U) ADNKronos reported that two Majles candidates were disqualified minutes before polls opened on Friday morning. Azeri candidate Jafar Fathalizadeh--a cleric--was reportedly accused of spreading "ethnic hatred" and "inciting people to clash with police during the campaign" and charged with "endangering national security" by the special court for the clergy. In addition, reformist Mohammad Reza Purebrahimi was reportedly prevented from running for a Majles seat in Kerman, western Iran. No reason was given, although some Kerman residents reportedly speculated that he was disqualified because he was likely to win against his conservative opponent. Assembly of Experts -------------- 11.(SBU) In the only reported result so far of the concurrently-held by-elections for the Assembly of Experts, the body that supervises and selects the Supreme Leader, Hashem Hashemzadeh-Harisi was re-elected in the East Azerbaijan constituency. Who is the big winner? -------------- 12.(SBU)Comment: Many analysts and observers assert that the big winner in these Majles elections is Supreme Leader Khamenei. The fissures that clearly emerged within conservative ranks do not hurt the Supreme Leader; in contrast, they lessen the risk of any one group or person amassing enough power and influence to rival him. Ultimately, whichever conservative group claims dominance in these elections will only be able to exercise power with the approval of the Supreme Leader. Criticism of the president's policies will likely increase from the 8th Majles, given that even the UPF lists contains critics of Ahmadinejad, such as Deputy Speaker Bahonar. 13.(SBU) Comment continued: The other clear winner is the IRGC, which has continuously expanded its presence in Iranian politics over the past four years. While we don't have exact numbers, a significant number of Majles candidates are reportedly former IRGC members or have some affiliation with the IRGC. 14.(SBU) Comment continued: Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf may emerge a winner, though not a parliamentary candidate, depending on predominance of BPCF candidates. A leader of that faction, a former IRGC officer, and current Tehran mayor, Qalibaf is increasingly seen as the conservative figure most likely to present a significant challenge to President Ahmadinejad in next year's presidential elections. If the BPCF does well and makes a name for itself in the next Majles challenging the president, Qalibaf would be well placed to challenge Ahmadinejad for the presidency in 2009. It is noteworthy that an Ahmadinejad deputy just reportedly established a news agency to critique the performance of the Tehran municipality, a clear indication that Ahmadinejad sees a threat from Qalibaf has also recently been attempting to raise his international profile. The mayor paid an official visit to Baghdad the week prior to President Ahmadinejad, in which he pledged the resources of the Tehran municipality toward rebuilding Baghdad. He also attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, meeting with the likes of UK Foreign Secretary Miliband. On the eve of the parliamentary elections, Qalibaf gave an interview to major British newspaper The Times in which he attempted to portray himself as more open to engagement with the West. Without referring to Ahmadinejad by name, he said that it was wrong to think that there was a "dominant" desire for confrontation and conflict in Iran, adding: "I would like the West to change its attitude to Iran and trust Iran and rest assured that there's an attitude in Iran to advance issues through dialogue." 15.(SBU) Comment continued: Reformists are looking to hang on to, and ideally expand, their current 40 seats in the Majles. However, after extensive vetting of reformist candidates, reformers ran in only about half of the races nationwide. Despite the high-profile politicking by Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Karrubi on behalf of the reform movement in Iran, reformist politicians seem unlikely to regain their control over the government any time in the near future. BURNS