GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAD AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 IHARTOUM 001126 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PPEL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAD AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS, ABYEI AND THE LRA ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a July 26 meeting with ConGen Juba, Luka Biong Deng, Minister for Presidential Affairs, Said the possible ICC indictments against GNU President Bashir present a golden opportunity to leverage concessions from him, that elections in 2009 are the only path to actually holding a peaceful referendum if 2011, that there is no movement on the selection of an Administrator and Deputy for Abyei, and that the GOSS is preparing for "Plan B" in dealing with the LRA. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Deng opened the meeting by commenting that the possible ICC indictments against GNU President Bashir present, in his opinion, a golden opportunity to put pressure on the NCP to honor agreements concerning the CPA and Darfur. Bashir, he said, fears these indictments and what they mean for his future. "The United States has an opportunity to leverage this with Bashir," Deng said, "and you should use it." On the down side, Deng also said that if the ICC judges do hand down arrest warrants, it means Bashir cannot risk losing his place as President of Sudan, and will either call off elections scheduled for next year, or will find a way to manipulate the electoral process to win. Stepping down from power is simply not an option open to him. ¶3. (SBU) On the subject of elections, Deng said that a decision has not yet been made by the party as to who will represent the SPLM on the presidential ticket, and he refused to speculate on who the frontrunners might be. Pressed on whether it would be Salva Kiir, Deng allowed that Kiir would be probable because he was the head of the party, and he could not reasonably take a secondary role to someone else in the SPLM were he or she elected president. Reminded that he had said that Bashir would never allow himself to lose an election, and that running for the presidency of the GNU would preclude Kiir running for the presidency of the GOSS, potentially leaving him with no elected position, Deng replied that the SPLM had no choice but to compete in the election, because holding them was the only path to a peaceful referendum on Southern self-determination in 2011. Even if they lost the presidency, if the SPLM and its allies could capture a majority in the National Assembly, they could at least write the legislation that will govern the conduct of the referendum. The SPLM, in short, has to run according to Deng. ¶4. (SBU) Turning to the US presidential elections, Deng said that the SPLM would send representatives to both the Republican and Democratic conventions. It is important to the SPLM that both American parties know the situation in Southern Sudan so that no matter who wins in November, issues of concern to the SPLM will be understood and given attention. Deng said GOSS President Salva Kiir might also travel to the US before the end of the year, and if he does he hopes to meet again with President Bush. The SPLM has great admiration for the American President, and wants to do something to show their appreciation to him before he leaves office. Deng does not yet know what that gesture would be. ¶5. (SBU) On the subject of Abyei, Deng said that no Administrator or Deputy has yet been chosen, and he sees little prospect for them being named any time soon. "The problem," he said, "is the issue of the Misseryia." The SPLM will not accept a Misseryia Deputy Administrator, and President Bashir is insisting on it. Deng explained that the SPLM is hard over on this issue because it is looking ahead to the referendum in 2011. The SPLM will not open the door to Misseryia participation in the governance of Abyei because the next step would be for the NCP to insist that the Misseryia have a right to vote in the 2011 referendum, which he said is the real goal of the NCP. The Misseryia, Deng said, are not native to Abyei and have no right to vote there in determining whether Abyei goes North or South in 2011. ¶6. (SBU) Finally, turning to the subject of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA),Deng said that Kiir recently met with President Museveni in Uganda and that both leaders are discouraged with the lack of progress on the peace agreement. "The GOSS," said Deng, is prepared for Plan B," meaning joint military action against the rebel group. Told that the UN and GOSS Vice President Machar are in contact with LRA leader Joseph Kony and hope to meet with him as early as next week to possibly sign a peace agreement, Deng simply shrugged and repeated, "We are ready for Plan B." ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Deng, a native of Abyei, was surprised when ConGen Juba told him that the UN had reported that nearly all SAF had reportedly withdrawn from Abyei, and that a turnover of the town to the new Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) is planned for this weekend. That, and a distinct lack of urgency in pushing to settle the Administrator and Deputy Administrator issue, seems to indicate that the SPLM has a great deal on its plate right now in dealing with the issue of the ICC indictments (where Kiir has the lead in defending the regime and finding a roadmap for Darfur) and what they mean for *********************** * Missing Section 002 * ***********************