VETERAN HONG KONG DEMOCRAT MARTIN LEE WILL NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000573 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2033 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK SUBJECT: VETERAN HONG KONG DEMOCRAT MARTIN LEE WILL NOT SEEK REELECTION Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Legislator and Democratic Party founder Martin Lee, Hong Kong's most senior pro-democracy leader, unexpectedly announced on March 27 that he would not seek another four-year term in the Legislative Council (Legco) in the September election. Lee, age 69, has been the most visible face of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong since the 1980s, and is well known overseas. His decision may open a path for some younger democrats to seek election to Legco, although there is no guarantee that the pan-democratic camp will be able to retain his Hong Kong Island Legco seat. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: There is no-one else in the pan-democratic camp with stature anywhere close to Lee's. Even radical democrats who publicly criticize the relatively mild positions and tactics of the Democratic Party (DP) and Civic Party (CP) retain enormous respect for Lee and his record of service. League of Social Democrats (LSD) legislator and DP co-founder Albert Chan, for example, told us that his own resignation from the party in December 2002 was due to Lee's resignation as party chairman; had Lee not left, Chan also would have stayed. For the coming Legco election, Lee's departure from the field will increase pressure on incumbent independent democrat Anson Chan to seek re-election. Chan, who is nearly as old as Lee, has remained noncommittal about seeking another term since she won a heated by-election last December. According to recent rumors, however, she has been leaning toward running again. End Comment. Surprise Announcement -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Martin Lee, Hong Kong's most famous democracy activist, unexpectedly announced on March 27 that he would not seek another term in the Legco election in September. Lee has been a member of Legco since 1985. He told reporters at a hastily convened press conference that he was stepping down from Legco due to his age (69) and his desire to make room for "fresh faces" in the pan-democratic leadership. "No one is indispensable," he said. While his "biggest regret" was that he "could not realize the democracy dream," Lee said he also was sorry that he had been able to visit the mainland only once since 1989. (Note: Lee and other prominent Hong Kong democrats have been banned from mainland China since 1989; in September 2005, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang led all Legco members on a PRC-arranged two-day visit SIPDIS to Guangdong, but Lee and 6-8 other democrats still have not regained their mainland travel permits. End note.) ¶4. (C) Lee told us on March 28 that he had been thinking about leaving Legco since the 2004 election, and that in the end the decision had not been difficult. "I've seen too many old politicians who can't let go and stay on too long," he said. Lee added that his health was good and he would continue to work for democracy in Hong Kong after the end of his Legco term in July. ¶5. (C) Numerous Hong Kong political figures, from all parties, commented publicly that Lee's departure was surprising and regrettable. Legislator Lee Cheuk-yan of the strongly pro-democracy Confederation of Trade Unions told us he was "quite shocked" by the news, and added that it would prove difficult for the democratic camp to retain Lee's Hong Kong Island Legco seat in the coming election. Martin Lee's long-time counterpart on the pro-Beijing side, former Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) Chairman, and current Legco and Executive Council member Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, told the press that "I envy him," likely reflecting the stresses of being at the forefront of their respective movements. Election Implications -------------- ¶6. (C) Lee's departure will thin the crowded list of pro-democracy Legco candidates somewhat, although there is no guarantee that another democrat will be able to win his seat. The pan-democratic camp hopes to win four of the six Hong Kong Island seats, assuming that independent democrat Anson Chan agrees to run for a full four-year term. DP member Kam Nai-wai is expected to lead the party's slate on Hong Kong Island, but his name recognition and status do not approach that of Lee. On the other hand, the independent "Hong Kong Economic Journal" reported that a recent public opinion poll indicated that Lee's popularity among potential Hong Kong HONG KONG 00000573 002 OF 002 Island candidates had fallen below that of Anson Chan, Audrey Eu, and Regina Ip. The pro-democracy CP, which plans to run incumbent legislator Audrey Eu together with newcomer Tanya Chan in the Hong Kong Island district, probably stands the best chance among the democrats of winning Lee's seat. Cunningham