VETERAN HONG KONG DEMOCRAT MARTIN LEE WILL NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000573

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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: VETERAN HONG KONG DEMOCRAT MARTIN LEE WILL NOT
SEEK REELECTION

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Legislator and Democratic Party founder
Martin Lee, Hong Kong's most senior pro-democracy leader,
unexpectedly announced on March 27 that he would not seek
another four-year term in the Legislative Council (Legco) in
the September election. Lee, age 69, has been the most
visible face of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong since
the 1980s, and is well known overseas. His decision may open
a path for some younger democrats to seek election to Legco,
although there is no guarantee that the pan-democratic camp
will be able to retain his Hong Kong Island Legco seat. End
Summary.


2. (C) Comment: There is no-one else in the pan-democratic
camp with stature anywhere close to Lee's. Even radical
democrats who publicly criticize the relatively mild
positions and tactics of the Democratic Party (DP) and Civic
Party (CP) retain enormous respect for Lee and his record of
service. League of Social Democrats (LSD) legislator and DP
co-founder Albert Chan, for example, told us that his own
resignation from the party in December 2002 was due to Lee's
resignation as party chairman; had Lee not left, Chan also
would have stayed. For the coming Legco election, Lee's
departure from the field will increase pressure on incumbent
independent democrat Anson Chan to seek re-election. Chan,
who is nearly as old as Lee, has remained noncommittal about
seeking another term since she won a heated by-election last
December. According to recent rumors, however, she has been
leaning toward running again. End Comment.

Surprise Announcement
--------------


3. (SBU) Martin Lee, Hong Kong's most famous democracy
activist, unexpectedly announced on March 27 that he would
not seek another term in the Legco election in September.
Lee has been a member of Legco since 1985. He told reporters
at a hastily convened press conference that he was stepping
down from Legco due to his age (69) and his desire to make
room for "fresh faces" in the pan-democratic leadership. "No
one is indispensable," he said. While his "biggest regret"
was that he "could not realize the democracy dream," Lee said
he also was sorry that he had been able to visit the mainland
only once since 1989. (Note: Lee and other prominent Hong
Kong democrats have been banned from mainland China since
1989; in September 2005, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald
Tsang led all Legco members on a PRC-arranged two-day visit

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to Guangdong, but Lee and 6-8 other democrats still have not
regained their mainland travel permits. End note.)


4. (C) Lee told us on March 28 that he had been thinking
about leaving Legco since the 2004 election, and that in the
end the decision had not been difficult. "I've seen too many
old politicians who can't let go and stay on too long," he
said. Lee added that his health was good and he would
continue to work for democracy in Hong Kong after the end of
his Legco term in July.


5. (C) Numerous Hong Kong political figures, from all
parties, commented publicly that Lee's departure was
surprising and regrettable. Legislator Lee Cheuk-yan of the
strongly pro-democracy Confederation of Trade Unions told us
he was "quite shocked" by the news, and added that it would
prove difficult for the democratic camp to retain Lee's Hong
Kong Island Legco seat in the coming election. Martin Lee's
long-time counterpart on the pro-Beijing side, former
Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong
Kong (DAB) Chairman, and current Legco and Executive Council
member Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, told the press that "I envy
him," likely reflecting the stresses of being at the
forefront of their respective movements.

Election Implications
--------------


6. (C) Lee's departure will thin the crowded list of
pro-democracy Legco candidates somewhat, although there is no
guarantee that another democrat will be able to win his seat.
The pan-democratic camp hopes to win four of the six Hong
Kong Island seats, assuming that independent democrat Anson
Chan agrees to run for a full four-year term. DP member Kam
Nai-wai is expected to lead the party's slate on Hong Kong
Island, but his name recognition and status do not approach
that of Lee. On the other hand, the independent "Hong Kong
Economic Journal" reported that a recent public opinion poll
indicated that Lee's popularity among potential Hong Kong

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Island candidates had fallen below that of Anson Chan, Audrey
Eu, and Regina Ip. The pro-democracy CP, which plans to run
incumbent legislator Audrey Eu together with newcomer Tanya
Chan in the Hong Kong Island district, probably stands the
best chance among the democrats of winning Lee's seat.
Cunningham