OMS' TOWER OF BABYL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000093 E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/6/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ SUBJECT: OMS' TOWER OF BABYL CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth M. hillas, PRT Leader, Babil PRT, Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: OMS leadership in Babil is under increased strain as its militia wing, the Mahdi Army (JAM),seeks to transorm itself into the Mumahidun and as divisions widen between moderates and hard-liners widen in the run-up to the provincial elections in late January. Dawa efforts to court OMS moderates appear to be making some progress, and a post-election governing coalition between them is a real possibility. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Mounting tensions and percieved threats to his life prompted Dr. Saleh, the Al-Hillah Deputy Political Director of OMS, to suddenly resign his post last week. Babil OMS leader Sheik Saddeq was grooming Saleh to become Political Director and had designated him to be the PRT's interlocutor in a recently opened channel of dialogue. In explaining his decision, Dr. Saleh said that his life was under threat from JAM extremists because of his moderate views, although he did not identify individuals. He made clear that the OMS, always loosely structured, was loosing its coherence. He predicted that parts of the organization would either break away to form a new political entity, or would join other political movements. He described the OMS as beset by leadership rivalries and increasingly adrift. ¶3. (C) Saleh said that the transformation of JAM/OMS to Mumahidun was accelerating the disaggregation of power within the organization and creating confusion, although he had originally thought the decision would help move the organization into a positive direction. He said that inlcusion of JAM extremists into Mumahidun was causing dissatisfaction among moderates who were hoping to have OMS become a mainstream political party. Several candidates with strong OMS ties have reportedly registered for the January elections, although a complete listing of all candidates (over 1400 for 30 seats) is not yet available. Those OMS candidates, however, are running on so-called independent slates. ¶4. (C) In a separate conversation with Dawa party leader Abu Ahmed Al-Basri, a close associate of PM Maliki's, the PRT leader was told that Dawa continues to seek to build ties to OMS moderates. Abu Ahmed acknowledged there is a real chance in the new provincial council for Dawa to build a governing coalition with OMS moderates and other secular parties, including independents and communists. Abu Ahmed expressed a preference for the nationalistic Sadrist Trend over ISCI, which he viewed as too closely tied to Iran. Abu Ahmed also remarked on growing divisions within OMS, as moderates grow increasingly frustrated and fearful that hard-liners will make them targets. Dawa reportedly has been using the Tribal Support Councils to build bridges to selected OMS supporters. Last week Abu Ahmed participated in a commemorative event marking the death of Mohammed al-Sadr, grandfather of Moqtada Al-Sadr, at which he actively courted several OMS officials. He also said that he expects the OMS to eventually split for a variety of reasons, ranging from Moqtada's erratic guidance and distance from Iraqi reality to the imperatives of gaining some power through elections in 2009 that should produce new Provincial and local councils, as well as a new Council of Representatives. HILLAS