KARBALA BOMBING SENERIOS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000034 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/27/2018 TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PREL IZ SUBJECT: KARBALA BOMBING SENERIOS HILLAH 00000034 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Larry Carson, IPAO, PRT KARBALA, DoS. REASON: 1.4 (a),(d) ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Karbala reporting cable. ¶2. (S) Summary: At 1745 hours on 17 March 2008, a bomb exploded at a small cafi in Karbala City. The initial attack killed 45 civilians and wounded 65. Since the initial attack, there has been considerable confusion, and much speculation, about its exact nature. In addition, the investigation and the description are now being used to advance the political agendas of some of the key players. While we have our views as to what the attack was, the best, and perhaps most useful, analysis we can give at this time is that the evidence is inconclusive. End Summary ¶3. (S) On 17 March 2008, a bomb exploded at a small cafi, approximately 300 meters from the Mukhaym Mosque in Karbala City. The 33rd IA BDE (Iraqi Army Brigade) and Iraqi Police in Karbala reported a "woman suicide bombing". These reports led to the conclusion that this was an AQI attack which was condemned by Embassy and MNF-I. Subsequently, Karbala Operation Center commander Major General Ra 'ad stated that this was in fact an assassination attempt against the Karbala ERU commander LTC. Ali. He further stated it was not a suicide vest, but a satchel/case type IED explosive device. Reviewing security camera footage of the bombing shows a woman with her back to the camera and then an explosion. It is not possible from this camera angle to determine if in fact it was a vest or not. The woman was certainly in the vicinity of the blast and may or may not have carried out the attack. However the explosion does appear to be much larger than normally caused by a suicide vest. We watched raw UAV footage for several hours over Karbala after the event and over the course of several days have followed the investigation closely. We have also watched the tapes from a security camera that caught part of the explosion. PRT Karbala will discuss what it believes are four (4) possible scenarios for this attack. ¶4. (S) Scenario A: AQI is behind the explosion - after reviewing the evidence this seems unlikely. The report that this was an AQI attack arose because this was reported as a woman suicide bomber - a signature technique for AQI and one virtually unknown among the Shia militias. AQI usually claims credit for its work. It takes pride in its martyrs and methods. To date AQI has not claimed responsibility for this attack. Tactically, this type of attack by AQI in Karbala would seem counterproductive. Karbala has a relatively small ethnic Sunni population living in comparative peace. So much so that there are Sunni families that have taken refuge with relatives in this Shia dominated province. An attack of this type carried out b y AQI would likely shatter that peace and could potentially lead to ethnic cleansing. ¶5. (S) Scenario B: Sadrist woman suicide bomber. We view this as unlikely. Sadrists, for religious reasons, have not and likely would not use a woman as a suicide bomber. During this year's cease fire JAM has been watching what other militias have been able to accomplish through the use of woman bombers. They have seen the cost in public support caused by this tactic. We do believe that Sadrist could have used a woman to carry an explosive device (IED) in through security and place for a possible assassination attempt. ¶6. (S) Scenario C: Woman used to smuggle IED into secure area, possibly in an assassination attempt. Specifically, Karbala Operations Center Commander IP General Ra'ad has state that this was a Sadrist/JAM assassination attempt against Lt. Col. Ali of the Iraqi Police. Ali has unquestionably been the subject of several assassination attempts (the latest, an IED attack against his convoy, wounded several Iraqi police in his PSD). According to Ra'ad, Ali frequents this cafi. We have also received reports that the bomber was a prostitute, had no family and was used to skirt past security (IP do not search women at checkpoints if there are no woman IP available to conduct a search). According to this scenario, she placed the IED and it prematurely detonated. Ali has been rousting local Sadrists, who believe (perhaps correctly) that Karbala's security forces are working to eliminate them from the political scene completely. Members of JAM have started to fight back, even before Sadr's announcement that they could defend themselves. This pushback is likely to continue as both sides jockey for power in the run up to elections. The press has reported widely that Sadrist are blaming Ra'ad and Ali for reneging on an agreement that was signed several months ago. The Senior Sadrist of Karbala Sheik Abdul - Hadi Al-Mohammadawi has asked for Sistani to intervene with this issue. ¶7. (S) That said, blaming Sadrists/JAM for an attempt against Ali does several things for Ra'ad. It deflects attention from HILLAH 00000034 002.2 OF 002 the IP's failure to intercept this bomb at an IP checkpoint and stop this attack from occurring. It generates sympathy for the IP as victims of Sadrist violence. Most importantly, it provides as excuse for the Karbala IP to take even stronger action against the Sadrists. ¶8. (S) Scenario D: Wrong Place, Wrong Time. The bomb was already in place and the woman either was walking next to it when it exploded or did something that triggered a premature detonation. It's impossible to determine from the tape if the woman was responsible or not. It is conceivable the bomb was already in place and she happened upon it. This would still be consistent with local politics and the assassination attempt scenario. Suicide attempt or not, this was a powerful anti-personnel device (loaded with pellets). Any nearby eyewitnesses were either killed or seriously wounded. ¶9. (S) While each of us has our own preferred interpretation of the evidence and the circumstances; the only thing we can say definitively is that the evidence is inconclusive and that the various actors in this drama will attempt to use this tragedy for their own tactical/political advantage. ¶10. (S) Comment: We've been watching the investigation unfold and have a number of comments. We've heard that Governor Aqeel is under a lot of pressure from the Government of Iraq (GOI) to follow the party line and blame AQI for this event. Ra'ad has his reasons for calling it an assassination attempt against Ali. That said, the characteristics of the blast and the local political situation argue for a local group setting up an anti-personnel device targeting either Ali, someone else, or designed to produce mass panic. If that is the case, the Sadrists/JAM may have provided MG Ra'ad the excuse he needs for an even more robust crackdown. Ra'ad is gunning for the Sadrists; he is pursuing a possible arrest against the Head Sadrist in Karbala and recently filed a complaint against him in the Courts. He has requested an additional 1500 IP to arrest Sheik Abdul - Hadi Al-Mohammadawi. All of this may have to wait, as Ra'ad has been ordered to Basrah to support efforts against Sadrists in that region. We are rapidly approaching a point where attempts for reconciliation, by us or by others, will be rendered all but impossible. End Comment. COOKE HILLAS COOKE