MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REFLECT NATIONAL PARTY FORTUNES

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000516 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2018 TAGS: FI PGOV SUBJECT: MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REFLECT NATIONAL PARTY FORTUNES Classified By: Ambassador Barbara Barrett for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 26 voters went to the polls in Finland's 332 municipalities to vote for local council elections. The biggest winners were the National Coalition Party (NCP) and the True Finns. For the first time the NCP, the center-right member of the governing coalition, was the largest party in the municipal elections. The other main Cabinet member, the Center Party of Prime Minister Vanhanen, lost over 2 percentage points, making this the fourth election in a row the party saw a drop in support. The largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, having already suffered a stinging defeat in 2004, also lost ground overall and in the six largest cities. The results speak to the larger fortunes of the parties, given national-level issues discussed in the elections, and the campaigning of party leaders. The disappointing results make it unlikely Vanhanen will lead his party into the next parliamentary elections. In the meantime, pressure within the Center party could impact the Cabinet, particularly on increasingly politicized issues like Afghanistan and NATO, though the bureaucratic Vanhanen may resist party pressures and stress Cabinet consensus. END SUMMARY. Finns vote in quadrennial municipal elections -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Braving terrible weather across Finland, on October 26 Finns went to the polls in 332 municipalities to vote for local councils. The biggest winners were the National Coalition Party (NCP) and the True Finns (TF). For the first time the NCP, the center-right member of the governing coalition, was the largest party in the municipal elections, garnering 23.4 percent of the vote, up from 21.8 percent in ¶2004. The populist TF surged to 5.4 percent from 0.9 percent. The other main Cabinet member, the Center Party of Prime Minister Vanhanen, lost over 2 percentage points (20.1 percent from 22.8 percent),making this the fourth election in a row the party saw a drop in support. The largest opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDP),having already suffered a stinging defeat in 2004, also lost ground overall and in the six largest cities. The Green Party (a smaller member of the Cabinet) also did well (8.9 percent),becoming the fourth largest party in Finland, passing the Left Alliance for the first time ever. Local elections, national party credibility -------------- ¶3. (SBU) What drew so many Finns out (61.2 percent of eligible voters, up from 58.6 percent in 2004) likely rests more on the issues in the campaign than the party personalities. The major issues in the campaign were healthcare, care for the elderly, funding for education and aid to the economically disadvantaged. Job losses in the forestry sector, and the global financial crisis - including the media coverage of the crisis' actual and potential impact on Finland - may have provided additional national-level issues to elections that might otherwise focus on public transport and road maintenance. Elections fought on such issues mean the results impact the parties at the national level; responding to - or perhaps feeding - this perception, national party leaders actively campaigned and debated even when they themselves were not up for a council seat. (NOTE: In Finland one can hold multiple positions, at the local and national level. END NOTE.) Shifting fortunes within the Cabinet -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The NCP's strong results follow its good fortune from 2007, when it passed the SDP and took a place in the coalition government. While no party stood out in a poll question regarding confidence in ability to handle municipal issues, the NCP led with 38 percent. In meeting with Polchief, NCP members attributed their results to better national organization, a more youthful and dynamic appeal through popular igures like FM Stubb and party chair and FinanceMinister Jyrki Katainen. ¶5. (SBU) The Center paty lost support in rural areas, its traditional ase. PM Vahanen and Center Party secretary Jarmo Korhonen came in for some sharp criticism from within the party after the elections. Critics complained that the party had no overall strategy for the elections, but more difficult for Vanhanen, many party members see him as a better Prime Minister than party leader. Having steered the party through multiple elections of diminishing support, analysts and government officials expressed doubt to Polchief about the likelihood of Vanhanen leading the party into the next parliamentary elections. Vanhanen has publicly ruled out resigning the party leadership in advance of the next party congress in 2010. ¶6. (C) The impact of the local elections on the Cabinet is uncertain. FM Stubb's senior advisor (and NCP member) Jori Arvonen observed to Polchief that the Center party is split into two wings, one more outward-looking and progressive and the other more inward-looking and traditionalist. Within the party Vanhanen is considerd to be from the former, and after this election his support within the latter will likely thin. This, Arvonen said, might create pressure for Vanhanen to break from other coalition members on policy issues more associated with other parties, e.g., Afghanistan, which is largely associated with the NCP. However, another NCP official pointed to the opinion held by many within the Center Party that Vanhanen is a better PM than party chair; the NCP member thought the bureaucratic Vanhanen would be likely to give more weight to consensus within the Cabinet on policy issues than in shoring up support within the Center party through those same issues. SDP support continues to drop -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The opposition SDP also lost support from a traditional stronghold, big cities, where it saw significant losses in Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa. The SDP is an aging party that has had difficulty in appealing to a younger generation, a trend that may have contributed to reported SDP difficulties in fielding candidates for the elections. On the question of which party enjoys the most public confidence in dealing with municipal issues, the SDP ranked highest among middle aged to elderly voters. Jutta Urpilainen, the party chair, put the best spin on the disappointing result, noting that the party came out ahead of the Center Party (given that some polls forecast more dire results). A second place result may well help Urpilainen, who came into the job only six months before the election. Populists on the rise? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) True Finns party leader, Timo Soini, was the biggest vote-getter in the city of Espoo, and was the second biggest vote-getter in all of Finland. The party likely drew votes from both SDP and the Center Party, perhaps indicating a widening of True Finn support beyond Soini's base (or at least a thinning of SDP and Center support in those areas). The media often describes the party as populist and anti-immigrant. Likely responding to this characterization and the succes of the Truee Finns, after the election, PM Vanhanen reportedly said he hoped Finland would not see such a political movement in Finland, noting that immigration is part of Finland's future. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The municipal elections do not have a direct impact on the Cabinet, which remains the same now as before the elections. However, the change in fortunes of the parties may have an impact on the functioning of the Cabinet. The Center Party will likely not replace a party chair who is also Prime Minister, but dissatisfaction with Vanhanen is significant. Vanhanen seems unlikely to pursue policies in order to shore up support in his party; however, pressures could grow and eventually impact issues that are increasingly politicized, like Afghanistan and NATO. END COMMENT. BARRETT