FINLAND BEGINS EDGING TOWARD THE NRF

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000126 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL MOPS FI SUBJECT: FINLAND BEGINS EDGING TOWARD THE NRF Classified By: Polchief Gregory Thome, Reasons 1.4 b,d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Halonen has authorized the GoF to make an official statement of interest in eventual NRF participation. This is a welcome and necessary first step, and we hope the Finns will deliver their official notification to NATO before the Bucharest Summit. However, in practice we should not expect to see Finnish troops under NRF command any time before 2010. The decision to begin exploring the NRF process enjoys strong support within government, but the President and many others remain uncomfortable with the idea of Finnish troops' participation in actual NRF. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On March 7, President Tarja Halonen and the Cabinet Subcommittee for Foreign and Security Policy (UTVA) granted approval for the GoF to officially inform NATO of Finland's interest in participating in the NATO Response Force (NRF). Although the Government must still engage in consultations with Parliament's Defense and Foreign Affairs Committees, support for informing NATO of Finnish interest is strong. The Defense Committee Chairman publicly announced his support on March 15, and the Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee told PolChief that his committee would give the green light in time for Finland to officially inform NATO before the Bucharest Summit. ¶3. (C) This said, the exact nature and timing of Finland's participation is still a long way from being determined. The GoF and Halonen are nowhere close to reaching consensus regarding the types or numbers of forces they might offer; which NRF rotation they might eventually join; or even, according to some outspoken politicians, whether Finland will ever actually allow troops to participate in NRF rotations or operations. President Halonen, in particular, remains very skeptical of placing Finnish troops under NRF command. Even though she authorized an expression of interest, she still opposes, at this stage, Finland's being involved in actual NRF operations. Kanerva, Defense Minister Jyri Hakamies and Finland's senior military officers believe that as the process advances, they will be able to convince Halonen and other skeptics of the advantages of full NRF participation. In fact, Finnish diplomats and military planners have suggested that the NRF's Danish-led 14th Rotation in 2010 might represent a good first opportunity, since the Finnish Defense Forces (FDF) -- and, more importantly, Finnish public opinion -- are comfortable working with the Danes. However, our contacts hastily add that such a suggestion is premature, and would require an entirely separate approval from the President. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Halonen's decision is a welcome first step and, we understand, a necessary one to help NATO begin the process of formally authorizing Partnership-for-Peace (PfP) nations to participate in NRF operations. And although she still opposes actual participation in NRF ops, her thinking on the NRF is clearly evolving in a positive direction. Two years ago, during her successful re-election bid, Candidate Halonen stated quite clearly that she opposed any Finnish involvement in the NRF and, if elected, would not approve it. Now, she has taken the important step of at least permitting Finland to express an interest despite her personal reservations. It is too early now to know whether she will "come around" in time for the Finns to join the Danish-led 14th NRF Rotation, but it is certainly not out of the question. END COMMENT. WARE