NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEETING; RAUL'S SPEECH HOLD NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000969

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL CU
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEETING; RAUL'S SPEECH HOLD NO
SURPRISES

Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The Cuban National Assembly concluded its second
48-hour session on December 27 with a speech by President
Raul Castro. In spite of the auspicious timing just days
before the 50th anniversary of the Cuban revolution on
January 1, the National Assembly session and Raul's speech
were hardly affairs to remember.


2. (C) The communist party daily Granma summed up the key
successes of the "heroic" National Assembly, which succeeded
in passing a social security reform package announced earlier
in the year, in officially naming 2009 the year of the 50th
anniversary of the revolution, in accepting a committee
report on the state of the Cuban economy at the end of 2008,
and an economic plan for 2009 that offers no significant
changes. While trumpeted as a grand triumph of Cuban
democracy because the social security reform had been
"debated" at the local level throughout the country, we have
seen no evidence that it was any different than the original
Government of Cuba (GOC) proposal. As Raul noted later in
his speech, the measure does address Cuba's serious
demographic problems by extending the retirement age by five
years, thus delaying the impact of providing social services
given the island's aging workforce. From a public policy
standpoint the reform would make sense, but would have a
major impact only if the rest of the Cuban economy were
closer to normal. In the current atmosphere, it seems more
like arbitrary penny-pinching.


3. (C) Raul Castro's closing speech offered little hope for
Cubans expecting change in the near future. He scored points
for honesty by reviewing the very serious economic problems
facing the country (septel),but his usual solutions of
discipline and hard work were hardly inspiring. After a
brief mention of the world financial crisis, Raul placed most
of the blame for Cuba's bleak financial condition on the
unprecedented damage caused by hurricanes this year.
Notably, however, and unlike many of the lower level
presentations during the National Assembly session, Raul did
not dwell on the United States or the embargo as the sources
of all of Cuba's difficulties. Aside from the obligatory
mention of the five Cuban "heroes," the United States did not
figure prominently in his address.


4. (C) Perhaps the most important initiative announced by
Raul was the plan to establish a "Contraloria" (Comptroller)
in Cuba to supervise the efficient management of resources.
While common in most other countries in Latin America, an
autonomous Contraloria, similar to the U.S. Government
Accountability Office, would be a significant change in
governing practice here. Earlier in 2008 Raul had focused on
ending "absurd prohibitions," a statement that led to the end
of prohibitions on the ownership of cell phones and other
electronics, and permitted Cubans to stay in hotels formerly
off limits to them. In this speech he discussed ending
"absurd gratuities and subsidies." He said that in 2008 the
GOC spent USD 60 million sending workers on all-expense paid
holidays to Varadero beach and other resorts, and that these
practices would have to end. That announcement was most
likely not well received among the nomenklatura and senior
state enterprise managers who usually benefited from such
perks, but many ordinary Cubans who have no chance to get
these sorts of benefits probably applauded his move.
Likewise, while the economic committee chairs were calling
for stricter enforcement of vagrancy laws to deal with the
unemployed, Raul called for (unspecified) changes in policy
to provide greater incentives to work.


5. (C) COMMENT: There was little to inspire in Raul's
speech. Any hope for change that may have arisen after
Raul's first major speech on July 26, 2007 was only further
dampened following Raul's latest effort to downplay
expectations. There was no anticipation among Cubans we
speak to that any major initiatives would be announced, and
they were not disappointed. Cubans seem to have lost the
ability to hope for changes coming from this government.
Preparations are now underway for celebration of the 50th
anniversary of the revolution, but they too appear decidedly
low key. Instead, almost all in Cuba, in civil society and
government alike, are focused on January 20 and the U.S.
presidential inauguration as the most likely source of change
for Cuba.



HAVANA 00000969 002 OF 002


FARRAR