CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000094 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2013 TAGS: CU KPAO PGOV SUBJECT: CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW REF: HAVANA 00063 Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D) ¶1. SUMMARY: The editor of a prominent Cuban online news magazine provided an innovative analysis of last Sunday's National Assembly elections. Reynaldo Escobar used the GOC's own statistics to show how many more protest votes may have been cast than seemed at first blush. Two other Mission contacts in the dissident community and a journalist working for a Mexican news service independently volunteered the sa-eQunswlYcited analysis. END SUMMARY= ¶2. On&Wenesdyl8Janmry#23 CpiUf iQ,qpsiob`MiShai PQr`:met`oithQTu-aidoI3{oRg, }d9~~we rhe#wm\oni[Rgn qw[Qagazn,ClnQnsw!($i3hQ|Ru{/u)*`}sepo "lqUhem{ew`sOjvx$_**MM%}vq*kNGkU|Q>d)Q@zjMv PO mQtXlmQikbiewQjQ)) rxsQs|o2}rS[$$i_j;qIII"E2sNQ'MaQhe process and/or the regime. ¶5. Escobar further speculated that when one added in the large numbers of people who would have loved to register their objections, but out fear of reprisal opted not to do so, the number of disaffected voters in this election may have been as high as 30 percent -- an unprecedented figure. ¶6. Escobar,s judgment was independently confirmed by Herminio Torres, an activist from Matanzas province who spoke with the public affairs officer the next day. Shown a copy of the statistics cited by Escobar, Torres agreed that they bore out his conclusions as well. ¶7. Separately Oswaldo Paya told us he had been struck by the regime's own statistics and the amount of open discontent reflected therein. Paya said Escobar's analysis persuaded him that the actual "dissident" community in Cuba numbers in the hundreds of thousands, even over a million. Enrique Lopez Oliva, citizen correspondent of the Mexican newspaper "Monitor," concurred. ¶8. COMMENT: Post believes that whatever the actual number of disaffected voters in this election, it is clear that in spite of the GOC,s repeated appeals for unity (and intimidation tactics that in some places were rumored to include numbered ballots),the Cuban people showed themselves increasingly willing to let their government know their true feelings in a variety of creative -- albeit still cautious -- ways. PARMLY