Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08HAVANA94
2008-01-28 21:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:
CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHUB #0094 0282141 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 282141Z JAN 08 FM USINT HAVANA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2787 INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000094
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2013
TAGS: CU KPAO PGOV
SUBJECT: CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN
ALTERNATIVE VIEW
REF: HAVANA 00063
Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000094
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2013
TAGS: CU KPAO PGOV
SUBJECT: CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN
ALTERNATIVE VIEW
REF: HAVANA 00063
Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D)
1. SUMMARY: The editor of a prominent Cuban online news
magazine provided an innovative analysis of last Sunday's
National Assembly elections. Reynaldo Escobar used the GOC's
own statistics to show how many more protest votes may have
been cast than seemed at first blush. Two other Mission
contacts in the dissident community and a journalist working
for a Mexican news service independently volunteered the sa-eQunswlYcited analysis. END SUMMARY=
2. On&Wenesdyl8Janmry#23 CpiUf iQ,qpsiob`MiShai PQr`:met`oithQTu-aidoI3{oRg, }d9~~we rhe#wm\oni[Rgn qw[Qagazn,ClnQnsw!($i3hQ|Ru{/u)*`}sepo "lqUhem{ew`sOjvx$_**MM%}vq*kNGkU|Q>d)Q@zjMv PO mQtXlmQikbiewQjQ)) rxsQs|o2}rS[$$i_j;qIII"E2sNQ'MaQhe process and/or the regime.
5. Escobar further speculated that when one added in the
large numbers of people who would have loved to register
their objections, but out fear of reprisal opted not to do
so, the number of disaffected voters in this election may
have been as high as 30 percent -- an unprecedented figure.
6. Escobar,s judgment was independently confirmed by
Herminio Torres, an activist from Matanzas province who
spoke with the public affairs officer the next day. Shown a
copy of the statistics cited by Escobar, Torres agreed that
they bore out his conclusions as well.
7. Separately Oswaldo Paya told us he had been struck by the
regime's own statistics and the amount of open discontent
reflected therein. Paya said Escobar's analysis persuaded
him that the actual "dissident" community in Cuba numbers in
the hundreds of thousands, even over a million. Enrique
Lopez Oliva, citizen correspondent of the Mexican newspaper
"Monitor," concurred.
8. COMMENT: Post believes that whatever the actual number of
disaffected voters in this election, it is clear that in
spite of the GOC,s repeated appeals for unity (and
intimidation tactics that in some places were rumored to
include numbered ballots),the Cuban people showed themselves
increasingly willing to let their government know their true
feelings in a variety of creative -- albeit still cautious --
ways.
PARMLY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2013
TAGS: CU KPAO PGOV
SUBJECT: CUBA'S OFFICIAL ELECTION STATISTICS: AN
ALTERNATIVE VIEW
REF: HAVANA 00063
Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D)
1. SUMMARY: The editor of a prominent Cuban online news
magazine provided an innovative analysis of last Sunday's
National Assembly elections. Reynaldo Escobar used the GOC's
own statistics to show how many more protest votes may have
been cast than seemed at first blush. Two other Mission
contacts in the dissident community and a journalist working
for a Mexican news service independently volunteered the sa-eQunswlYcited analysis. END SUMMARY=
2. On&Wenesdyl8Janmry#23 CpiUf iQ,qpsiob`MiShai PQr`:met`oithQTu-aidoI3{oRg, }d9~~we rhe#wm\oni[Rgn qw[Qagazn,ClnQnsw!($i3hQ|Ru{/u)*`}sepo "lqUhem{ew`sOjvx$_**MM%}vq*kNGkU|Q>d)Q@zjMv PO mQtXlmQikbiewQjQ)) rxsQs|o2}rS[$$i_j;qIII"E2sNQ'MaQhe process and/or the regime.
5. Escobar further speculated that when one added in the
large numbers of people who would have loved to register
their objections, but out fear of reprisal opted not to do
so, the number of disaffected voters in this election may
have been as high as 30 percent -- an unprecedented figure.
6. Escobar,s judgment was independently confirmed by
Herminio Torres, an activist from Matanzas province who
spoke with the public affairs officer the next day. Shown a
copy of the statistics cited by Escobar, Torres agreed that
they bore out his conclusions as well.
7. Separately Oswaldo Paya told us he had been struck by the
regime's own statistics and the amount of open discontent
reflected therein. Paya said Escobar's analysis persuaded
him that the actual "dissident" community in Cuba numbers in
the hundreds of thousands, even over a million. Enrique
Lopez Oliva, citizen correspondent of the Mexican newspaper
"Monitor," concurred.
8. COMMENT: Post believes that whatever the actual number of
disaffected voters in this election, it is clear that in
spite of the GOC,s repeated appeals for unity (and
intimidation tactics that in some places were rumored to
include numbered ballots),the Cuban people showed themselves
increasingly willing to let their government know their true
feelings in a variety of creative -- albeit still cautious --
ways.
PARMLY